River Flood Warning 10, NWS Huntsville, AL

121 
WGUS84 KHUN 261243
FLSHUN
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
643 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA..
  FLINT RIVER AT BROWNSBORO AFFECTING MADISON COUNTY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED ROAD. THE 
DEPTH OF WATER IS NOT ALWAYS OBVIOUS. AS LITTLE AS TWO FEET OF WATER 
WILL CARRY MOST CARS AWAY. ALSO...THE ROAD BED MAY BE WASHED OUT 
UNDER THE WATER...AND YOU COULD BE STRANDED OR TRAPPED. 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV /ALL 
LOWER CASE/. ONCE THERE...CLICK ON THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO VIEW LOCAL
RIVER INFORMATION.

&&

ALC089-270243-
/O.CON.KHUN.FL.W.0010.120127T1300Z-120128T0417Z/
/BSBA1.1.ER.120127T1300Z.120127T1800Z.120127T2217Z.NO/
643 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE FLINT RIVER AT BROWNSBORO.
* UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
* AT 5 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.9 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.  
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW MORNING AND CREST 
  NEAR 17.5 FEET BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...WATER FLOODS A LARGE FIELD ON THE UPSTREAM 
  LEFT BANK AND IS FLOODING LARGE PORTIONS OF THE DOWNSTREAM LEFT 
  BANK.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 17.1 FEET
  ON FEB 6 2010.

&&
RIVER        FLOOD    OBSERVED    12PM  6PM 12AM  6AM        CREST
LOCATION     STAGE  STG DAY TIME   THU  THU  FRI  FRI   STG DAY TIME

FLINT RIVER
BROWNSBORO   17.0   9.9 THU 5 AM  10.0 11.0 14.4 16.9  17.5 FRI 12 PM

$$

171 
WGUS84 KHUN 261525
FLSHUN
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
924 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...

  FLINT RIVER AT BROWNSBORO AFFECTING MADISON COUNTY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED ROAD. THE 
DEPTH OF WATER IS NOT ALWAYS OBVIOUS. AS LITTLE AS TWO FEET OF WATER 
WILL CARRY MOST CARS AWAY. ALSO...THE ROAD BED MAY BE WASHED OUT 
UNDER THE WATER...AND YOU COULD BE STRANDED OR TRAPPED. 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV /ALL 
LOWER CASE/. ONCE THERE...CLICK ON THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO VIEW LOCAL
RIVER INFORMATION.

&&

ALC089-270524-
/O.EXT.KHUN.FL.W.0010.120127T1120Z-120128T0400Z/
/BSBA1.1.ER.120127T1120Z.120127T1800Z.120127T2200Z.NO/
924 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE FLINT RIVER AT BROWNSBORO.
* UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
* AT 8 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.8 FEET AND NEARLY STEADY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.  
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW AND CREST
  NEAR 17.5 FEET BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...WATER FLOODS A LARGE FIELD ON THE UPSTREAM 
  LEFT BANK AND IS FLOODING LARGE PORTIONS OF THE DOWNSTREAM LEFT 
  BANK.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 17.1
  FEET ON FEB 6 2010.

&&
RIVER        FLOOD    OBSERVED    12PM  6PM 12AM  6AM        CREST
LOCATION     STAGE  STG DAY TIME   THU  THU  FRI  FRI   STG DAY TIME

FLINT RIVER
BROWNSBORO   17.0   9.8 THU 8 AM   9.8 11.3 15.4 17.2  17.5 FRI 12 PM

$$

732 
WGUS84 KHUN 270347
FLSHUN
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
947 PM CST THU JAN 26 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN ALABAMA...

  FLINT RIVER AT BROWNSBORO AFFECTING MADISON COUNTY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO
RECOGNIZE FLOOD DANGERS. IF WHILE DRIVING YOU SEE WATER OVER A 
ROAD...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN! THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO
ALLOW YOUR VEHICLE TO CROSS. 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV /ALL 
LOWER CASE/. ONCE THERE...CLICK ON THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO VIEW LOCAL
RIVER INFORMATION.

&&

ALC089-271747-
/O.EXT.KHUN.FL.W.0010.120127T1300Z-120128T1251Z/
/BSBA1.1.ER.120127T1300Z.120127T1800Z.120128T0651Z.NO/
947 PM CST THU JAN 26 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE FLINT RIVER AT BROWNSBORO.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT 9 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.5 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.  
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW MORNING AND CREST 
  NEAR 17.5 FEET BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...WATER FLOODS A LARGE FIELD ON THE UPSTREAM 
  LEFT BANK AND IS FLOODING LARGE PORTIONS OF THE DOWNSTREAM LEFT 
  BANK.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 17.1 FEET
  ON FEB 6 2010.

&&


RIVER        FLOOD    OBSERVED    12AM  6AM 12PM  6PM        CREST
LOCATION     STAGE  STG DAY TIME   FRI  FRI  FRI  FRI   STG DAY TIME

FLINT RIVER
BROWNSBORO   17.0  13.5 THU 9 PM  14.2 16.9 17.5 17.4  17.5 FRI 12 PM

$$

495 
WGUS84 KHUN 271535
FLSHUN
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
935 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
ALABAMA...

  FLINT RIVER AT BROWNSBORO AFFECTING MADISON COUNTY

THE FLINT RIVER AT BROWNSBORO HAS FALLEN BELOW ACTION STAGE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP TO AROUND 13.0 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLEVIATE ANY MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS AT THE FLINT RIVER AT BROWNSBORO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED ROAD. THE 
DEPTH OF WATER IS NOT ALWAYS OBVIOUS. AS LITTLE AS TWO FEET OF WATER 
WILL CARRY MOST CARS AWAY. ALSO...THE ROAD BED MAY BE WASHED OUT 
UNDER THE WATER...AND YOU COULD BE STRANDED OR TRAPPED. 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV /ALL 
LOWER CASE/. ONCE THERE...CLICK ON THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO VIEW LOCAL
RIVER INFORMATION.

&&

ALC089-271605-
/O.CAN.KHUN.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120128T1251Z/
/BSBA1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
935 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2012

FORECAST INFORMATION FOR
  FLINT RIVER AT BROWNSBORO.
* AT 8 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.0 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.  
* NO FLOODING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.


&&
RIVER        FLOOD    OBSERVED    12PM  6PM 12AM  6AM        CREST
LOCATION     STAGE  STG DAY TIME   FRI  FRI  SAT  SAT   STG DAY TIME

FLINT RIVER
BROWNSBORO   17.0  15.0 FRI 8 AM  14.9 14.4 13.9 13.4   FRI 27 3 AM  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
601 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 339 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012/
WARM AIR ADVECTION...ALONG WITH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED IN WARM LATTER JANUARY TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOW/MID 60S MOUNTAINS AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE...TO
LOWER 70S AT MUSCLE SHOALS. NORMAL HIGH TEMPS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
51/52 AT THE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE RESPECTIVELY. THIS WARM CHANGE WAS
BEING HELPED BY A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF
THE REGION...AND A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM EASTERN TEXAS.

SYNOPTICALLY...A BUSY PATTERN CONTINUED ACROSS THE GREATER CONUS. AN
UPPER MOISTURE PLUME AND FLOW WAS NOTED MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW. SOME OF THIS FLOW WAS ROUNDING AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE
TEXAS BIG BEND. A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WAS IN PROGRESS FROM
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO WEST OF THE TX/LA BORDER. THIS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE MOVING THIS DIRECTION...AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

THIS SYSTEM...SIMILAR TO THE LAST ONE WILL DRAW HIGH AMOUNTS OF GULF
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE REGION...AND BRING VERY GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GOOD (IF THAT CAN BE SAID) IS THE BEST
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS AREA. THIS WILL
LIMIT BIG PICTURE STORM INTENSITY ACROSS THIS REGION. THAT BEING
SAID...A FEW STRONGER TO BORDERLINE SEVERE STORMS CAN NEVER TOTALLY
BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING 50
MPH...AND MAYBE SMALL HAIL AT THE ONSET. THE BAD...LIKE THE LAST
SYSTEM ARE VERY HIGH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING
1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE. A POSSIBILITY OF EITHER TRAINING OF CELLS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PUSH LOCALIZED TOTALS INTO THE 3-4 INCH RANGE.
THIS AMOUNT OF WATER FALLING ON A VERY WET TO SATURATED GROUND WILL
RUN OFF...PRODUCING ELEVATED FLOOD RISKS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WE
HAVE GOING...STARTING EARLY THUR AM FOR OUR AREA WEST OF I-65...AND
NOON FOR LOCATIONS TO THE EAST OF THE INTERSTATE...LOOKS GOOD.

THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE ENE FROM EAST TEXAS...REACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THUR EVENING. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF
IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST THUR NIGHT. DRY WEATHER...WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING WILL
RETURN ON FRIDAY. THIS TIME...MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR A DRY WEEKEND
IS IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS ON FRI/SAT WILL BE COOLER THAN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...IN THE MID/UPPER 50S (STILL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS). A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL TRIM TEMPS BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS FOR SUN/MON. GIVEN A DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH THIS NEXT FRONT...
WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST INTO NEXT TUESDAY. AFTER THAT...ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WITH MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL AT BOTH HSV/MSL FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 4 HOURS...BEFORE A DECK OF MVFR STRATUS OVERSPREADS
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BTWN 26/04-08Z. MODELS INDICATE THAT CIGS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 2-3 KFT RANGE...WITH AN INCREASING PROB FOR
-SHRA. TSRA THREAT WILL INCREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 26/08Z...AS
SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TOWARD
WESTERN TENNESSEE -- ALTHOUGH THREAT MAY INITIALLY BE HIGHEST AT MSL
WITH ACTIVITY APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY TOMORROW...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF
SHRA/TSRA ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. HAVE INDICATED
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500 FEET AFTER 26/14Z...BUT PERIODS OF
IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER TSRA. UTILIZED VCTS AT
THIS TIME...WITH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO USE TSRA IN
PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUPS. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-12
KNOTS FROM SE OVERNIGHT...WITH PREVAILING SSW FLOW AROUND 12 KNOTS
TOMORROW. WIND SHIFT TO W POSSIBLE AT MSL LATE IN PERIOD BUT NOT
INDICATED IN FORECAST.

70/DD

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
/ISSUED 339 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012/
THIS NEXT EPISODE OF RAIN ON AN ALREADY WET TO NEARLY SATURATED
GROUND WILL RUNOFF...AND PRODUCE INSTANCES OF FLOODING ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. FLOODING WILL BE MORE LIKELY IF LOCALLY HEAVY
AMOUNTS OF RAIN OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR IF CELLS/SHOWERS TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS RUNOFF WILL ALSO PRODUCE MORE RISES IN AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS LATE THIS WEEK AND DURING MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ALZ006-008>010.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ALZ001>005-007-016.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TNZ076-096-097.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1249 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-261100-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1249 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

RAIN SHOWERS MAY INCLUDE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
MAY RESULT...ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATER ON
THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN TEXAS
MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...SOME
FALLING IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY...PLEASE REFER TO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

RUNOFF OF THIS RAINFALL INTO ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE MANY TO GO INTO FLOOD FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.
INTERESTS ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD MONITOR LATER
FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL.