Flood Watch 1, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1135 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1012 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012/

DEEP LAYER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL
GULF COAST REGION THIS LATE MORNING...WITH MORE LIGHT/MODERATE
STRATIFORM TYPE RAIN LEADING INTO THE TN VALLEY AREA. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN LATER TODAY WILL BE THE EXTENT OF AIR MASS RECOVERY ACROSS
THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS...LEADING TO PERHAPS MORE CONVECTIVE LIKE
ACTIVITY VERSUS STRATIFORM. WHILE THE DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION IS CERTAINLY MORE SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUOUS HEAVY
RAINFALL...WEAK LOW LEVEL VEERING COUPLED WITH A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED W
TO E FRONTAL PROGRESSION ACROSS THE GULF REGION MAY OFFSET MORE IN
THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/TRAINING CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. ONGOING QPF FORECAST TODAY HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AOA 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...BUT THIS WOULD BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AIR
MASS DESTABILIZING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. PROVIDED THE FIRST SCENARIO
PLAYS OUT THIS AFTERNOON...CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT MAY BE
DOWNGRADED TO A MORE AREAL FLOOD WATCH...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME AREA
CREEKS/STREAMS TOPPED ALONG WITH A FEW LOCAL RIVERS EITHER IN FLOOD
OR ABOVE ACTION STAGE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY DECISION REGARDING THE
FFA RIGHT NOW AS NEW MODEL GUIDANCE ARRIVES COUPLED WITH PENDING
CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. AS SUCH...WILL LEAVE
THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST UNCHANGED...ALTHOUGH LATER UPDATES COULD
CERTAINLY BE WARRANTED AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES ACROSS THE AREA.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...LIGHT/MOD SHRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE E ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING
WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH IS NOW BEGINNING TO
PUSH THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AREA. THE HEAVIER CONVECTION REMAINS
S OF THE AREA...AND WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY/SUPPORT IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF REGION...XPCT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HRS. NEVERTHELESS...REDUCED VIS/CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR THE HEAVIER SHRA INTO THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD. WITH THE
COLD FRONT NOT XPCTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL LATE THIS
EVENING...MVFR/IFR CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
AFTER 12Z FRI.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ALZ006-008>010.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ALZ001>005-007-016.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TNZ076-096-097.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1240 PM CST THU JAN 26 2012

ALZ009-010-261930-
DE KALB-JACKSON-
1240 PM CST THU JAN 26 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DEKALB AND JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL
130 PM CST...

AT 1236 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LINE OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM PISGAH TO RAINSVILLE TO
COLLINSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  ROSALIE...LEBANON.
  COLLBRAN...HENAGAR.
  DOG TOWN.
  FLAT ROCK...BEATY CROSSROADS.
  HAMMONDVILLE.
  ADAMSBURG...VALLEY HEAD.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS.
SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3449 8557 3443 8558 3438 8562 3419 8597
      3419 8599 3445 8590 3469 8593 3488 8559
      3453 8551
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 237DEG 24KT 3465 8582 3450 8580
          3431 8588