Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Huntsville, AL

873 
WGUS74 KHUN 111748
FFSHUN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1148 AM CST WED JAN 11 2012

ALC079-083-089-103-111900-
/O.CON.KHUN.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120111T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAWRENCE AL-LIMESTONE AL-MADISON AL-MORGAN AL-
1148 AM CST WED JAN 11 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN MORGAN...
NORTHWESTERN MADISON...LIMESTONE AND EASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES UNTIL
100 PM CST...

AT 1147 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN 
AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN MORGAN...NORTHWESTERN 
MADISON...LIMESTONE...AND EASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH ARE LIKELY.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO 
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING 
INCLUDE...ATHENS...DECATUR...HARTSELLE...ARDMORE...FALKVILLE...FLINT 
CITY...PRICEVILLE AND TRINITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS
AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING
AREAS ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8675 3431 8682 3431 8727 3500 8721

$$

SL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
636 AM CST WED JAN 11 2012

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 431 AM CST WED JAN 11 2012/
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND A VIGOROUS PARENT UPR LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISS
VALLEY. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN IS COMPLICATED AND INDICATES
PERHAPS A DOUBLE-LOW SITUATION STRETCHING FROM WEST CENTRAL AL INTO
WESTERN TN. MAINLY SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA EXISTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE
UPR LOW HAS GAINED AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MID/UPR LVL DRY SLOT ROTATING AROUND
THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
AL. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING UPR LVL DIFFLUENCE HAVE
LEAD TO THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION OF TSRA ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS MORNING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS REASONABLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS ESSENTIALLY ZERO WITH PARCELS STILL ELEVATED.
RECENT STORM ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
CELLS...BUT WHILE STORMS REMAIN ELEVATED...THE PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER REMAIN SMALL. RADAR IMAGERY HAS INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF MAINLY SMALL HAIL IN A COUPLE OF THE CELLS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THE RAIN AND STORMS THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. WHILE NO REPORTS HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED THUS FAR...AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT RAINFALL HAS NOT
EXCEEDED THREAT VALUES...RAINFALL RATES AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE INCH
PER HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THIS AND
OTHER TYPICAL CONVECTIVE THREATS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING.

BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS...THE MAIN SHIELD OF MDT/HVY RAIN MAY
EXIT CENTRAL AREAS AS EARLY AS 6 AM...AND EASTERN COUNTIES AS EARLY
AS 9 AM. POPS (ALTHOUGH STILL HIGH FOR TODAY) HAVE BEEN TAILORED TO
SHOW LOWER VALUES WEST/HIGHER EAST DURING THE 12Z-00Z
TIMEFRAME...BUT THIS IS MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RAINFALL THIS
MORNING. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
QUICKLY BEGIN TO WANE...BUT THE ADVANCE OF THE UPR LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LIFT WILL AID IN CONTINUED LGT SHRA AND LGT DRIZZLE THROUGH THE DAY.
BASICALLY...THIS IS SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER CLOUDY COOL DAY WITH LOW
CLOUDS...A FEW LGT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. THE INITIAL AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT IS PACIFIC AND MODIFIED CONTINENTAL ORIGIN...AND THUS NOT
TOO COLD. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY FALL A LITTLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...BUT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY WITH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOMORROW
AS AN UPR TROUGH QUICKLY DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN THIS MORNING MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW MORNING WILL LIKELY
BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE...BUT WILL FALL GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY AS
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES. MOISTURE WITH THE COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
BE FOLLOWING THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...CHARACTERISTIC OF AN ANAFRONT
SITUATION. VERTICAL MOISTURE/THERMAL PROFILES HAVE BEEN INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF DENDRITIC GROWTH AND THE 00Z AND EVEN LATEST 06Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUES THIS TREND. EXPERIENCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE
MOISTURE COLUMN WILL BE A LITTLE DEEPER THAN MODEL PROGS INDICATE.
AS A RESULT...MENTION OF FZN PRECIP HAS BEEN RETAINED IN THE FCST
PACKAGE FOR THIS MORNING. LIKEWISE...A CONTINUING TREND FOR STEEPER
LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE UPR
LOW HAVE LENT SUPPORT FOR INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. POPS WERE
RAISED ACCORDINGLY INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT FURTHER INCREASES
MAY BE NECESSARY. QPF STILL LOOKS GENERALLY SMALL WITH THIS EVENT
AND WILL LIKELY BE GREATER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN (AS WILL ANY
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS). IN ADDITION TO THE FALLING TEMPS AND LGT
WINTRY MIX...WINDS WILL BE STRONG OUT OF THE NW ON THURSDAY...WITH
WIND CHILL PROBABLY IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING ON THURS NIGHT...BUT THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD IS LIKELY TO BE ON SAT UNDER A CLEAR SKY
AND LGT WIND REGIME. LOWS IN THE UPR TEENS TO LOW 20S APPEAR
PROBABLE AT THIS TIME. A BRIEF WARMUP WILL OCCUR LATER ON SATURDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER QUICK BUT GLANCING BLOW OF COLD AIR. TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY BUT THEN ANOTHER REBOUND INTO WARMER
TEMPS IS IN STORE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS INCREASING FOR ANOTHER FRONT AND CHANCE FOR RAIN
FROM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL BE THE
LEADING EDGE OF A PACIFIC AIRMASS UNDER A DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME AND THUS NOT LIKELY THAT STRONG. LONG WAVE TRENDS AND
TELECONNECTIONS SUGGEST TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT IS STILL WEST OF BOTH HSV/MSL...
LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED TSRA
ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS/CB THRU 11/15Z AT
HSV...AND KEEP VCSH IN FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF PERIOD -- AND FOR
ENTIRE PERIOD AT MSL -- AS THREAT FOR LIGHT SHRA WILL PERSIST WELL
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. ERRATIC CIGS CURRENTLY REPORTED AT BOTH
AIRPORTS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A UNIFORMLY BROKEN DECK OF MVFR STRATUS
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH PREVAILING CIGS AROUND 2500 FT AGL
BENEATH OVC050. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW AS FRONT
PUSHES THRU REGION...WITH 15G25 KNOTS EXPECTED THRU EARLY EVENING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AND BACK TO SSW LATER THIS EVENING...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO PREVENT CONCERN FOR REDUCED
VSBY. REGARDLESS...CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL
INDICATE THIS TREND BUT HOLD FORECAST IN THE MVFR RANGE OF 1500-2000
FT AGL.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
918 AM CST WED JAN 11 2012

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-120000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
918 AM CST WED JAN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS...HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN ADDITION...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME COULD
CREATE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE
ALREADY EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW...RANGING BETWEEN A TRACE AND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ANY THREAT FOR SNOW WILL END EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

DD/DJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
835 AM CST WED JAN 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 AM     LIGHTNING        N SCOTTSBORO            34.67N 86.03W
01/11/2012                   JACKSON            AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            LIGHTNING SPARKED A HOUSE FIRE IN THE 100 BLOCK OF LAUREL
            STREET IN SCOTTSBORO. TIME ESTIMATED.

0415 AM     FLOOD            6 WNW HUNTSVILLE        34.77N 86.68W
01/11/2012                   MADISON            AL   STORM CHASER

            FOUR INCHES OF FLOWING FLOOD WATER WAS REPORTED OVER
            PLUMMER ROAD BETWEEN JOHN ROAD AND INDIAN CREEK.

&&

KULA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
848 AM CST WED JAN 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 AM     HAIL             SOMERVILLE              34.47N 86.80W
01/11/2012  E0.50 INCH       MORGAN             AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED.

&&

KULA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
849 AM CST WED JAN 11 2012

ALZ006-007-111530-
MADISON-MORGAN-
849 AM CST WED JAN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MADISON AND MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL
930 AM CST...

AT 847 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TRIANA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  LACEYS SPRING.
  WHITESBURG.
  REDSTONE ARSENAL.
  HUNTSVILLE...UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA IN HUNTSVILLE.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3453 8686 3456 8684 3455 8679 3464 8679
      3480 8668 3470 8644 3443 8668
TIME...MOT...LOC 1449Z 217DEG 15KT 3456 8670

SL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
927 AM CST WED JAN 11 2012

ALZ006-009-111615-
JACKSON-MADISON-
927 AM CST WED JAN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JACKSON AND MADISON COUNTIES
UNTIL 1015 AM CST...

AT 927 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OWENS CROSSROADS...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HUNTSVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  GURLEY...PAINT ROCK.
  GARTH...BROWNSBORO.
  MAYSVILLE...TRENTON.
  HOLLYTREE.
  PRINCETON.
  NEW MARKET.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 8611 3460 8628 3460 8631 3458 8630
      3457 8633 3456 8631 3454 8631 3452 8633
      3456 8654 3499 8645
TIME...MOT...LOC 1527Z 194DEG 28KT 3463 8640

SL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
928 AM CST WED JAN 11 2012

ALZ007-008-016-111615-
CULLMAN-MARSHALL-MORGAN-
928 AM CST WED JAN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CULLMAN...MARSHALL AND MORGAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 AM CST...

AT 923 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HOLLY POND...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  FAIRVIEW.
  BAILEYTON.
  HULACO...JOPPA.
  RYAN CROSSROADS...ARAB.
  EDDY.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3415 8675 3444 8666 3436 8638 3425 8645
      3425 8649 3424 8652 3423 8652 3421 8654
      3418 8655 3412 8660
TIME...MOT...LOC 1528Z 198DEG 12KT 3419 8662

SL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
954 AM CST WED JAN 11 2012

ALZ006-009-TNZ096-097-111645-
FRANKLIN-JACKSON-LINCOLN-MADISON-
954 AM CST WED JAN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRANKLIN...JACKSON...LINCOLN AND
MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 AM CST...

AT 948 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RYLAND...OR NEAR MOORES MILL...MOVING NORTH
AT 30 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  HAZEL GREEN.
  NEW MARKET...FISK.
  PLEVNA.
  LINCOLN.
  ELORA...FRANCISCO.
  FLINTVILLE...CRYSTAL SPRINGS.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3515 8615 3475 8634 3476 8663 3515 8653
      3515 8637 3512 8636 3515 8635 3513 8635
      3512 8632 3514 8631 3515 8633
TIME...MOT...LOC 1554Z 198DEG 26KT 3485 8646

SL