Special Weather Statement, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
849 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

.DISCUSSION...
FIRST FORECAST UPDATE JUST SENT OUT TO EXTEND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH UNTIL 10 AM FOR LIBERTY...CHAMBERS AND GALVESTON COUNTIES...AND
ALSO FOR GALVESTON BAY AND ALL OF OUR 00-60 NM WATERS. ALL OTHER COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM.

MORE UPDATES COMING SOON.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012/

DISCUSSION...
LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY ENTERING INTO OUR CWA FROM THE WEST. SO
FAR TIMING HAS BEEN ON TRACK WITH PROGS. AS SUCH NOT REALLY PLAN-
NING ON A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST/GRIDS WITH THIS
PACKAGE. STILL LOOKING FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAINS TODAY WITH THE INCOMING SQUALL LINE. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD
BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT HAIL ALSO LIKELY. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING AS EVERYTHING MOVES
OFF TO THE ENE. HOWEVER THE MAIN UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE
STORMS WILL BE LINGERING IN/AROUND THE RED RIVER THESE NEXT 24HR
OR SO. THIS MIGHT ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS SHORTWAVES
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS COMBINED WITH LEFT-
OVER BOUNDARIES AND DAYTIME HEATING COULD LEAD TO MORE PCPN..AND
PERHAPS SLOWER MOVING PCPN ON WEDS. ATTM NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
WITH KEEPING (OR EXTENDING THE FFA) THROUGH WEDS BUT IT COULD BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TODAY.

THINGS EXPECTED TO QUIET DOWN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
AS THIS UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES OFF THE E/NE AND A RIDGE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA. A SLOWLY DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW TO
HELP SE TX SLIP INTO A MORE BENIGN PATTERN OF MODERATE TEMPS/LOW
TO NO POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 41

MARINE...
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 18-25G27-35KT HAVE DRIVEN UP THE
SEAS TO 9 TO 12 FEET AND MORE RISES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
BEFORE THE LLJ SHIFTS EAST AND COLD POOL FROM THE LINE OF STORMS
PUSHES A WIND SHIFT INTO MATAGORDA BAY AREA AND THEN THE WESTERN
WATERS LATE THIS MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A
CONCERN FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING FROM WEST THIS
MORNING TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA UNTIL 01Z FOR
MOST OF THE AREA BUT AROUND MATAGORDA BAY WHERE WINDS SHOULD COME
DOWN FIRST. OFFSHORE WATERS SEAS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO COME DOWN WITH
THE LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH...AND THEN WITH THE WINDS COMING BACK UP
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND NORTHWESTERLY WILL BECOME VERY
ROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. WINDS FINALLY RELAX BY
THURSDAY AND A LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

TIDES HAVE COME UP TO AROUND 3 FEET AND SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND THIS
LEVEL AND MAY CREEP UP A BIT MORE IN THE GALVESTON BAY AREA WITH THE
LONGER AND STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW. MAY HAVE SOME MINOR BEACH
FLOODING ISSUES BY MID MORNING THEN SLOWLY RECEDE THIS AFTERNOON.
45

AVIATION...
LOOKS LIKE THE COLD POOL IS PUSHING THE STORMS EAST JUST SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN IN CURRENT TAFS SO WILL BE UPDATING SHORTLY TO SHORTEN
THE ARRIVAL TIME BY AN HOUR OR TWO FOR THE HEAVIER RAINS. STRONG
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE LINE AND WILL
CARRY LLWS UNTIL THE TSRA PREVAILING ARRIVE IN THE TAF. NOT AS
CONFIDENT AS THE ENDING THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE IAH-GLS
TERMINALS AS NAM APPEARS SLOWER AND GFS A LITTLE FASTER. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP VCSH IN THROUGH 00Z AND NORTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT AS WELL.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  54  67  49  78 /  90  50  30  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  57  68  51  78 /  90  50  40  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  60  68  61  76 /  90  60  50  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...LIBERTY...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
513 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-211015-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
513 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM TODAY...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SQUALL LINE IS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM. THE EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE SYSTEM MAY THEN SLOW DOWN DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
WEATHER THREAT. THROUGH THIS EVENING...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
AND 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS FROM 5 TO 7
INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS OCCUR. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RAINFALL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVERHEAD. THOUGH
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIME...WE WILL BE
MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
MEANDERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE.

IN ADDITION TO OUR LOCAL RAINFALL...CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER NORTH TEXAS INTO MIDWEEK SO RIVER LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AND SHOULD ALSO BE MONITORED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
525 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

TXZ197-210-211-226-201130-
AUSTIN-COLORADO-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
525 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 522 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTH OF
COLUMBUS TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF COLUMBUS...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...SHERIDAN...ROCK
ISLAND...NEW ULM...NADA...INDUSTRY...GARWOOD...FRELSBURG...CAT
SPRING...EAGLE LAKE...COLUMBUS AND BELLVILLE.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL TREE BRANCHES TO BE BROKEN...AND
UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
OR NON-CONVERTIBLE AUTOMOBILE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT FOR THE
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 2982 9671 3012 9642 3019 9619 2948 9624
      2908 9643 2926 9664 2928 9665 2935 9657
      2952 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 1024Z 277DEG 33KT 2988 9659 2936 9666

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
639 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

TXZ198-199-212-213-201245-
GRIMES-HARRIS-MONTGOMERY-WALLER-
639 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 633 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HEMPSTEAD TO 9 MILES SOUTH OF HEMPSTEAD TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BROOKSHIRE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
BRIEF MODERATE DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...PLANTERSVILLE...
MONAVILLE...LAKE CONROE DAM...DOBBIN...DACUS...WILLIS...TOMBALL...
TODD MISSION...THE WOODLANDS...STAGECOACH...PRAIRIE VIEW...
PINEHURST...PINE ISLAND...PATTISON...MONTGOMERY...HEMPSTEAD...CONROE
AND BROOKSHIRE.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH CANS TO
BLOW AROUND. AVOID TALL OUTDOOR OBJECTS THAT CAN ATTRACT LIGHTNING.
IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS AND HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.  SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE
STORMS HAVE PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT FOR THE
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 2997 9553 2974 9593 2974 9597 3020 9616
      3022 9609 3023 9610 3025 9608 3026 9610
      3028 9609 3045 9590 3047 9537
TIME...MOT...LOC 1138Z 250DEG 22KT 3016 9610 2998 9603
          2974 9597

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
732 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

TXZ227-237-238-201330-
BRAZORIA-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
732 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 729 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PECAN GROVE TO 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF FIRST COLONY TO 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FIRST
COLONY...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF MODERATE DOWNPOURS...ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...ROSHARON...JULIFF...
CHOCOLATE BAYOU...TOWN WEST...THOMPSONS...SUGAR LAND...STAFFORD...
PECAN GROVE...MISSOURI CITY...MEADOWS...MANVEL...LIVERPOOL...IOWA
COLONY...HILLCREST...FRESNO...FIRST COLONY...BONNEY...ARCOLA AND
ALVIN.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH CANS TO
BLOW AROUND. AVOID TALL OUTDOOR OBJECTS THAT CAN ATTRACT LIGHTNING.
IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS AND HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.  SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE OR
NON-CONVERTIBLE AUTOMOBILE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT FOR THE
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 2923 9524 2932 9585 2950 9573 2973 9575
      2947 9516 2931 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 1232Z 286DEG 35KT 2961 9567 2946 9566
          2937 9573

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
834 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

TXZ199-200-213-201430-
HARRIS-LIBERTY-MONTGOMERY-
834 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 832 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HUMBLE TO 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF JACINTO CITY TO SOUTH HOUSTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF
MODERATE DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...PORTER...NEW CANEY...
LAKE HOUSTON DAM...SOUTH HOUSTON...PLUM GROVE...PASADENA...
KINGWOOD...JACINTO CITY...HUMBLE...HIGHLANDS...GALENA PARK...DEER
PARK...CLOVERLEAF...CHANNELVIEW AND BARRETT.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL TREE BRANCHES TO BE BROKEN...AND
UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. AVOID TALL OUTDOOR OBJECTS THAT CAN
ATTRACT LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS AND HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.  SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE OR NON-CONVERTIBLE AUTOMOBILE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT FOR THE
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 2956 9520 2955 9525 2960 9527 2985 9529
      3014 9527 3029 9508 2985 9503
TIME...MOT...LOC 1334Z 269DEG 28KT 3003 9525 2984 9527
          2963 9524

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
918 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

TXZ200-201515-
LIBERTY-
918 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 916 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 7 MILES WEST OF DAYTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF MODERATE DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...TARKINGTON PRAIRIE...
ROMAYOR...MOSS HILL...KENEFICK...DAYTON LAKES...DAYTON AND CLEVELAND.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH CANS TO
BLOW AROUND. AVOID TALL OUTDOOR OBJECTS THAT CAN ATTRACT LIGHTNING.
IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS AND HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.  SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE OR
NON-CONVERTIBLE AUTOMOBILE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT FOR THE
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3037 9509 3049 9476 3021 9468 2997 9495
      3012 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 1416Z 202DEG 37KT 3004 9498

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