Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

906 
WWUS54 KHGX 160202
SVSHGX
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
902 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

TXC239-160210-
/O.EXP.KHGX.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-120416T0200Z/
JACKSON TX-
902 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR JACKSON COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR 
PROPERTY. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  
HOWEVER SMALL HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 2920 9658 2896 9631 2879 9632 2872 9666
      2879 9670 2882 9672 2885 9671 2889 9673
      2891 9678 2895 9680
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 246DEG 19KT 2885 9670 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
618 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODELS DOING A POOR JOB WITH CAP AND OTHER CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS.
GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT
SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM. CONFIDENCE IS LOW. DRIER AIR IS
ALREADY WORKING INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES WITH SFC DEW PTS IN
THE MID 50S. BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
COAST...THEM WORK BACK INLAND ON MONDAY. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012/

DISCUSSION...
LINE OF STORMS STILL LOOKING AWFULLY RAGGEDY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA...LARGELY IN PART TO THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE OVER SE TX. BUT
THAT BEING SAID A BIT RELUCTANT TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF SVR ATTM
AS THERE IS STILL A VERY ISOLATED CHC OF STRONG/SVR ACTIVITY THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR POSS-
IBLE EVENTS OVERNIGHT/TOMORROW. MODELS KEEPING WITH THE IDEA OF A
MORE WET PERIOD AS THEY STALL THE BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. SHORT
WAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER JET PATTERN DOES SEEM
TO INDICATE BETTER RAIN CHCS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. BUT...GIVEN
THE CURRENT TRENDS...HARD-PRESSED TO GET TOO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE
POSSIBILITY. CONDTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE MON/TUES AS THIS BOUN-
DARY SLOWLY WASHES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE AREA.
41

MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS 20-30 KNOTS AND
GUSTY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX BEFORE
THAT THE SEAS OF 8-11 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE SLOW TO COME
DOWN. ELEVATED TIDES AND AFTER A CALL FROM THE BEACH PATROL HAVE
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT ABOUT THE STRONG RIP TIDES BEING
REPORTED.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      61  78  59  81  58 /  40  30  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  78  63  80  61 /  60  60  50  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  79  70  78  70 /  60  70  60  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
423 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-162130-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
423 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE STRONG LOW-LEVEL INFLOW
AND SHEAR EXISTS...THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS HAS BEEN HAMPERED BY
THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

THE LINE OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
STALL OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 59 BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. THIS BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS. THIS
PATTERN HAS PRODUCED DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROBABLY SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
59 MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
THREAT FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING EXISTS. THE POSITION OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. IF IT STALLS OFF THE
COAST...THE HEAVIEST RAINS COULD END UP BEING OFFSHORE. IF IT
STALLS INLAND...THE HEAVY RAINS COULD DEVELOP OVER THESE
LOCATIONS.

RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT THROUGH TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE AROUND 1 INCH WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OR
MORE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 59. IF THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ENDS UP MAKING
IT FURTHER SOUTHEAST OR OFF THE COAST...RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS
EVENT WOULD END UP LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENT AND
UPDATE THE FORECAST AS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
801 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

TXZ235-160145-
JACKSON TX-
801 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 800 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR INEZ...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PEA SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EDNA...GANADO AND LA WARD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 2916 9655 2896 9632 2869 9633 2869 9638
      2874 9640 2873 9644 2871 9644 2871 9665
      2882 9672 2885 9671 2889 9673 2893 9680
      2897 9680
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 269DEG 33KT 2880 9672