Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1038 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE/JET MAX WILL HELP TO KEEP PCPN GOING OVER
THE SRN HALF OF THE FA THE REST OF THE DAY...GENERALLY ALONG/NEAR
THE LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY. CURRENT GRIDS OF HIGH POPS/MENTION OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO HAVE THINGS COVERED...BUT WILL ALSO
ADD FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO THE SRN MOST COASTAL COUNTIES FOR THE RE-
MAINDER OF THE DAY. IMPRESSIVE RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF
4-6 INCHES ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL RAIN
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTN AS EVIDENT BY THE
TRAINING CURRENTLY SETTING UP. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 421 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012/

EXCELLENT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
STATIONARY FRONT RUNNING GENERALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR
IS HELPING TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WITH THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS BEING GENERATED WITH UNVERIFIED
RADAR ESTIMATES AS HIGH AS 5 TO 7 INCHES IN RURAL LOCATIONS OF
CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER AND MOST
PERSISTENT ACTIVITY. SO FAR...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORIES ARE BEING ISSUED TO COVER THIS ACTIVITY. TODAY'S
FORECAST WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL CENTRAL AND SOUTH...AND ADJUSTMENTS WILL PROBABLY BE
NEEDED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY DECENT
AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE OFF TO OUR EAST
LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE DECREASING
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL RAINS SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING. OUR
AREA IS THEN IN STORE FOR A COUPLE DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES UNDER A DRIER AIRMASS. AT THE END OF THE WEEK...A
COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE AREA WILL DRY OUT BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND QUIET WITH LOW
HUMIDITIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE AT BOTH
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BECOMES THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE
STATE. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      78  59  81  58  82 /  30  30  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  63  80  60  82 /  60  50  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  70  78  66  79 /  70  60  30  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
439 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-171200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
439 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH
THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
THE STORM SYSTEM EDGES OFF TO THE EAST. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON
TX720 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

TXZ226-227-161300-
FORT BEND TX-WHARTON TX-
720 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN FORT BEND AND WHARTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 800 AM CDT...

AT 720 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM JUST NORTH OF EL CAMPO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A
SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2935 9641 2961 9613 2925 9593 2915 9631
TIME...MOT...LOC 1212Z 245DEG 14KT 2925 9631