Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
225 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS OUR REGION FROM THE WEST REACHING THE
COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK. EXPECT THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION ALONG THE NRN END OF PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE BOUNDARY IS
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT WHICH WAS WORKED OVER BY THE
EARLIER STRONG STORMS. THE SRN END OF THE LINE IS MAINTAINING ITS
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA NOT AS WORKED OVER. THIS SEGMENT
IS ALSO WHERE A TRIPLE POINT LOW ALONG THE LINE WILL HELP WITH KEEP
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HIGH. EVEN WITH WEAKENING ACROSS THE NORTH...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE AFTERNOON AS
COVERAGE REMAINS HIGH. A SVR STORM OR TWO IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE UPSTATE AND NE GA WHERE INSTABILITY IS HIGHER AND SHEAR REMAINS
STRONG. SVR POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS...BUT
SHRA WILL LINGER AS THE POLAR FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL KEEP
THE FFA IN PLACE THRU EXPIRATION AS PRECIP SLOWLY TAPERS OFF AND
SOME FLOODING CONTINUES. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE
EVENING ENDING THE PRECIP THREAT. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE FIRST BOUNDARY WITH WIND SHIFTING SLIGHTLY BEHIND AND SPEEDS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE POLAR
FRONT BUT REMAIN ABOVE CALM. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF FOG THIS
EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGER.
HOWEVER...EXPECT ANY FOG OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND WINDS KEEP THE ATMOS SLIGHTLY MIXED. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME DENSE MTN VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS AND
LINGERING CLOUDS SHUD KEEP IT IN THE PATCHY RANGE. LOWS WILL
ACTUALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS CLOUDS AND WINDS KEEP
ATMOS MIXED AND WARM.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WED...BUT THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH REMAINS TO OUR NORTH KEEPING A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH BREEZY WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE WED MORN...EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS MIXING
BEGINS BY MID MORNING. THE GUSTS WILL LINGER THRU THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT
BRIEFLY WED MORN...BUT SHUD RETURN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON AS HEATING ACTS ON LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT
THE DRY FCST TO CONTINUE. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE QUIET...AS DRY
HIGH PRES LINGERS ALONG THE EAST COAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THAT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FCST
SNDGS LOOK STABLE FOR THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...THE NAM HAS A FINGER OF
LLVL ATLANTIC MOISTURE ROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES SYSTEM
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS RESULTING IN CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG IN
THE MTNS. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY...AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT
AND THE AIR MASS IN PLACE MODERATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF NOON TUESDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED IS
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FROPA THIS WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT STILL EXPECTING IT
TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND BE THRU THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE GULF WILL BE CLOSED FOR BUSINESS WITH THIS FRONT...SO
ONLY A CHC POP FOR THE MTNS WITH THE FRONT AND SLGT CHC ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN ACRS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SETTLE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. THE
CWFA WILL EXPERIENCE FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN BOUNCE BACK A CATEGORY OR SO
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON PRE-FRONTAL
MOISTURE BOUNDARY WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TEMPO TS AND MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
CONVECTION...XCPT TEMPO IFR KAVL WHERE CONDITIONS ARE WORSE. AFTER
THIS LINE MOVES THRU...SHRA WILL LINGER AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THAT FRONT MOVES THRU. THERE WILL
BE A SMALL WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH THE FIRST FRONT...THEN TO
N TO NW BEHIND THE SECOND. THERE WILL BE SOME LOW END GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN STEADY ABOVE CALM SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL
LINGER UNTIL THE SECOND FRONT PASSES THRU. COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR
FOG UNTIL DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT. HOWEVER...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXCEPT IN THE MTN
VALLEYS AS AIR SHUD REMAIN MIXED EVEN IF THE DRIER AIR IS SLOWER TO
MOVE IN. CIGS SHUD BECOME LOW VFR OR EVEN SCATTER OUT BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT. EXPECT LOW VFR CLOUDS TO RETURN OR CONTINUE WED
MORNING HEATING ACTS ON THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. GUSTY NELY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH MIXING BY MID MORNING AND
CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-
     059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>003.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1241 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

NCZ036-037-056-057-181745-
CATAWBA-DAVIE-IREDELL-ROWAN-
1241 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT DAVIE...EASTERN CATAWBA...IREDELL
AND NORTHERN ROWAN COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM EDT...

AT 1239 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM COURTNEY TO
CATAWBA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  STATESVILLE...
  FARMINGTON...
  TROUTMAN...
  BERMUDA RUN...
  ADVANCE...
  COOLEEMEE...

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3561 8130 3606 8069 3605 8049 3607 8046
      3601 8041 3599 8041 3596 8037 3589 8036
      3588 8041 3585 8038 3582 8046 3579 8047
      3574 8045 3571 8032 3568 8033 3563 8029

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1245 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

NCZ036-056-057-068>072-508-181745-
CABARRUS-CATAWBA-CLEVELAND-GASTON-GREATER
RUTHERFORD-IREDELL-LINCOLN-MECKLENBURG-ROWAN-
1245 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CLEVELAND...GASTON...LINCOLN...
NORTHWESTERN CABARRUS...NORTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG...SOUTHEASTERN
IREDELL...SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...SOUTHERN CATAWBA AND SOUTHERN
ROWAN COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM EDT...

AT 1244 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
VALE TO CLIFFSIDE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  MAIDEN...
  SHELBY...
  LINCOLNTON...
  TERRELL...
  IRON STATION...
  LAKE NORMAN...

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3564 8036 3516 8103 3519 8194 3561 8135

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
147 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

GAZ018-026-028-SCZ001-004-010-181815-
ANDERSON-FRANKLIN-GREATER OCONEE-HART-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-STEPHENS-
147 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FRANKLIN...HART...SOUTHERN
OCONEE...STEPHENS AND WESTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

AT 147 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OAKWAY TO 5 MILES
SOUTH OF EASTANOLEE TO COMMERCE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  MARTIN...
  SENECA...
  LAKE HARTWELL...
  LAKE KEOWEE...
  ROYSTON...
  LAVONIA...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS MAY
EXPERIENCE FLOODING.

LAT...LON 3426 8334 3432 8340 3442 8339 3446 8340
      3448 8346 3466 8336 3486 8291 3479 8288
      3474 8290 3473 8286 3467 8285 3464 8281
      3444 8272 3430 8294 3425 8311 3426 8313
      3423 8317 3426 8331 3422 8335

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
215 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

GAZ028-SCZ004-005-010-181845-
ANDERSON-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-HART-
215 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HART...SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE...
SOUTHWESTERN PICKENS AND WESTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM
EDT...

AT 215 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OAKWAY TO 3 MILES
EAST OF WHITWORTH TO ROYSTON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  SENECA...
  CLEMSON...
  CENTRAL...
  ANDERSON...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY FLOOD LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY WINDS COULD TOPPLE
A FEW TREES IN AREAS WITH VERY WET SOIL.

LAT...LON 3427 8312 3428 8310 3441 8310 3450 8305
      3451 8308 3453 8308 3456 8313 3462 8314
      3471 8303 3487 8266 3464 8256 3437 8264
      3423 8309

HG

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