Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1033 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A COLD FRONT AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES OUR REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY.  THIS FRONT
WILL REACH THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THE NEXT COLD
FRONT TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM...WIDESPREAD SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE CWFA ATTM. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
COUNTIES WEST OF THERE. UP TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE AS
THE 12Z GSO RAOB SHOWED DECENT H85 TO H5 LAPSE RATE. SHEAR IS QUITE
STRONG WITH OBSERVED BULK SHEAR OF 46 KTS AND 0-3KM HELICITY OF 403.
THIS MEANS ANY STORM THAT FORMS OVER THE ERN CWFA HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR EVEN A TORNADO. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A SVR STORM OVER THE WRN CWFA...BUT CHC WILL DIMINISH THRU THE
AFTERNOON. THE BIGGER THREAT OVER THE WRN CWFA WILL BE FLOODING.
PRECIP AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WERE QUITE HIGH AND WITH CONTINUED HEAVY
RAINFALL THRU AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...THE ONGOING FLOODING COULD
EXPAND. THEREFORE...WILL EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH TO GO THRU THE REST
OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PRECIP TO END FROM SW TO NE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHRA COULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MTNS IN THE MOIST NWLY FLOW. EXPECT GUSTY SWLY
WINDS TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO SWING
AROUND THE COMPASS TO NLY OVERNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING GUSTS. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING CLOUDS
OVER THE MTNS IN THE MOIST NWLY FLOW. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HIGHS BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

630 AM EDT UPDATE...FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. MADE SOME TWEAKS
TO THE TEMPS/TDS. THE POPS...SKY AND WIND ARE ON TRACK. RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE MTNS AS THE LLVL FLOW HAS
BECOME PARALLEL. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW
OVER THE NEXT HR OR SO AND WORK INTO THE SW NC MTNS...MAINTAINING
THE HYDRO THREAT WHERE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
18 HRS.

430 AM EDT UPDATE...MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS/TDS AS ATMOS HAS
BECOME RATHER STEADY STATE ACROSS MOST AREAS. PRECIP HAS FILLED IN A
LITTLE ACROSS THE ERN AND SE/RN ZONES AS EXPECTED AND CONTINUED ERN
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. ACROSS THE
MTNS...THE AREA OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THE LOW END RATES WHILE
PUSHING OFF TO THE NE. AN AREA FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP MAINTAINED
BY DOWNSTREAM ULVL DIV SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE SW/RN NC
MTNS...NE GA AND THE WRN UPSTATE AROUND 12Z. HYDRO CONCERNS REMAIN
ACROSS THE SRN NC BLUE RIDGE AS THIS AREA HAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN THE PAST 18 HRS.

ONGOING PRECIP HAS FILLED IN ACROSS THE NC FHILLS AND PIEDMONT
DURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS AND MOST LOCATIONS THERE SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL BEFORE SUNRISE. LOW END COVERAGE IS NOTED ACROSS
THE UPSTATE...HOWEVER VERY LIGHT -SHRA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NE GA AND TRACK NE. THE NC MTNS ARE STILL EXPERIENCING THE HIGHER
RAINFALL RATES...ABOUT 0.75 TO 1.0 INCHES PER HR WITH THE STRONGER
DOWNPOURS. A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED FOR AVERY COUNTY
AND THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST AREA OF CONCERN HYDRO/WISE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WITH 24 HR STP SHOWING AREAS OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES ACROSS
THE NC MTNS...MAINLY AROUND THE SRN BLUE RIDGE AND NRN FHILLS...AND
WITH MORE SUSTAINED RAIN PUSHING IN FROM TN LATER THIS MORNING...THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE LEFT AS IS TO EXPIRE AT 16Z.

A COMPLICATED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL ENCOMPASS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE SW/RN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME PULLED NE
BY A LARGER SCALE TROF SWINGING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. THE AMOUNT OF
S/W FORCING IS SOMEWHAT SUSPECT AS H5/H7 DPVA IS MAXIMIZED WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF TIME...PROB 16Z-22Z
WHERE THE MLVL FORCING IS ENHANCED BY A FINGER OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER JET CORE. THE LLVLS WILL FEATURE A SFC TROF AXIS PUSHING INTO
THE CWFA FAIRLY LATE...AROUND 06Z WED BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE ERN
ZONES. BEFOREHAND...THE REGION WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH A WEAK
TRIPLE POINT LOW SLOWLY CROSSING OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR WILL BE HIGH ALONG WITH MODERATE 0-3 KM
HELICITY...HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
CLOUDINESS...ESP ACROSS THE NW/RN HALF OF THE CWFA. THE SPC HAS THE
NE/RN AND ERN ZONES IN A SLGT RISK OF SVR WX AND A 5 PERCENT TOR
RISK WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BY MID AFTERNOON FOR THAT AREA WITH
RELATIVELY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SBCAPE AND A PROBABLE UPPER FORCING
CONNECTION. OUTSIDE OF THAT...MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS SHOULD SEE
ISOL GENERAL TSTMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE.

WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVERAGE PATTERN...MAX TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES NORTH OF I85...WHILE AREAS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. EXPECT DECENT CLEARING
AND DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE MTNS TONIGHT WHICH
WILL ALLOW MINS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THERE AND AROUND NORMAL
OVER THE NON/MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...COOLER NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACRS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WHATEVER THE DEGREE OF LINGERING STRATOCU WINDS UP
BEING IN THE MORNING WILL BE INCREASINGLY MIXED WITH SUN AS THE
DAY WEARS ON. MAX TEMPS ARE SLATED TO AVERAGE 8 DEG F BELOW THE
MID-SEPTEMBER NORMAL. WEAK ELONGATED SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE APPALACHIANS WED NITE. IT IS DEBATABLE MUCH CLOUDS WILL RESULT
FROM THE TRAPPED RH WITHIN THE 80-85H LAYER...BUT AT THIS POINT
WILL FCST A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ALLOWING THU AM MIN TEMPS TO FALL
6-8 DEG F FROM THE WED AM READINGS. WEAK LLVL RIDGE AXIS LINGERS
ATOP THE CWFA THRU THURSDAY WITH THE MEAN LLVL FLOW BECOMING LIGHTER
AND MORE VARIABLE. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED...MAX
TEMPS SHOULD GET A COUPLE OF DEGREES BOOST FROM WEDNESDAY/S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
AN AMPLIFIED NOAM PATTERN CONTINUING...WITH A POLAR VORTEX INVOF
HUDSON BAY KEEPING A LONGWAVE TROF AXIS ALIGNED ROUGHLY ALONG THE MS
VLY THRU THE WEEKEND...SHIFTING EAST SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT
THE SFC...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
THURSDAY...AND PUSH ACRS THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE HPC PREFERENCE IS FOR A FASTER SURGE OF CONTINENTAL-POLAR
AIR...HAVING THE FRONT THRU THE CWFA BY 00Z SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO KEEPING CHC POPS CONFINED
TO THE MTNS AND SLGT CHC ELSEWHERE...MAXIMIZED AROUND MIDDAY AND
EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU
THE MEDIUM RANGE. DID ADD SMALL QPF VALUES TO THE FORECAST ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN DROPPING TO 5-8 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. LOW TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 40S MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
LATE THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL
UPDATE FOR CONVECTION WITH THE 15Z AMD. OTHERWISE...GUSTY SSW WIND
AND MVFR TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER FROPA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NW. THAT SAID...COULD BE SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN...AND MTN VALLEYS COULD
BECOME IFR.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-
     059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>003.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RWH/SBK
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...ARK/DEO
AVIATION...RWH/SBK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
308 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
SCZ001>003-190715-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
308 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF DAMAGING
WINDS OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ004>014-019-190715-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
EASTERN POLK-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-
SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-
CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
308 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP. LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
MAY BE SEEN AS WELL...PRODUCING HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND
PERHAPS EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

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