Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
808 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 530 PM...A STRONG STORM HAS MOVED INTO RABUN COUNTY...AND A
LINE OF CONVECTION IS ORGANIZING OVER THE GREAT VALLEY OF TN.
HOWEVER...NOT MUCH IS HAPPENING OVER THE ERN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
ZONES ATTM AND I/VE CUT BACK POPS IN THOSE LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH BOTH AN MCS MOVING
INTO THE NC MTNS AND CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN STRENGTHENING LLVL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS LATER THIS EVENING. AND THIS IS
REFLECTED WELL IN THE GRIDS.

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS SCATTERING SUFFICIENTLY E OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO ALLOW HEATING
THAT HAS RAISED SFC-BASED CAPE INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE ON THE
LAPS ANALYSIS. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CLT METRO AREA
AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH MORE ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE FRONT
OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING AND BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A
CONCERN WITH SOME DRY AIR ABOVE 500 MB...ALTHO IN GENERAL THE
SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE AS YESTERDAY.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF WEATHER FEATURES...AND IN PARTICULAR SHOW THE AXIS
OF THE UPPER TROF AND THE UPPER JET REMAINING TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL
ACT TO KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT HUNG UP PROBABLY OVER THE MTNS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TREND...THEREFORE...IS TO HOLD ON TO MORE OF
A CHANCE OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER A LARGER PART OF THE FCST AREA
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS BUOYANCY
AND DCAPE SLOWLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...WITH JUST ENOUGH SHEAR TO
PERHAPS ORGANIZE STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE 4KM WRF DEVELOPS A
LINE OF STORMS OFF THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND 23Z WHILE THE HRRR BRINGS
THE LINE OF STORMS ACROSS TN AND INTO THE NC MTNS AROUND THAT TIME.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENUF UPPER FORCING WILL EXIST TO
WARRANT A LIKELY POP INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WILL KEEP POP IN THE
CHANCE RANGE OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD REDEVELOP AT ANY
TIME WITH THE SITUATION REMAINING UNCHANGED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD.

ON SATURDAY...EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE HUNG UP OVER THE MTNS AT
SUNRISE. UNLESS EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS PREVENTS IT...CONVECTION
SHOULD RE-FIRE EARLY IN THE DAY CLOSE TO THE FRONT AS IT DID TO OUR
WEST THIS PAST MORNING. UPPER DIVERGENCE...DPVA...AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE SUGGEST ANOTHER POP IN THE LIKELY RANGE BY AFTERNOON OVER
THE PIEDMONT...AND A CHANCE UP TO THE BLUE RIDGE. A GUIDANCE BLEND
WAS USED FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...12Z GFS AND NAM STILL SOMEWHAT AT ODDS AS TO
HOW FAST THE FRONTAL BAND OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE EAST. THE NAM STIL IS FASTER AND HAS
THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SUN...WHILE
THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND WETTER. THE SREF APPEARS TO
CONTINUE TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR THE SOLUTION. THE SREF KEEPS
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN MOST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
ON SAT NIGHT...AND THEN MOVES THE MOISTURE/PRECIP EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
WILL ALSO SCATTER AND CLEAR THE CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE SAT NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SUN WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A VERY
NICE DAY WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 50S OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...BUT ITS LINGERING INFLUENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DRY
DAY ON MONDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO ON SUN
AND NEAR CLIMO ON MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE
IN STORE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL
GENERALLY FEATURE A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH
INDICATIONS FROM THE LATEST 12Z GFS OF BUILDING HEIGHTS TOWARD THE END
OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE EAST. LATEST HPC/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUE ALONG WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION. THE GFS DRIVES THE FRONT SE OF THE AREA BY WED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH THU. THUS ONLY CLIMO TYPE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS WED AND THU. ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRI AND PER HPC WILL FORECAST CHANCE TYPE
POPS. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...AN AREA OF SHRA WAS ABOUT 40 MI WEST OF THE AIRFIELD AT
ISSUANCE TIME. IF THEY DEVELOP FURTHER THEY COULD GET CLOSE ENUF TO
WARRANT A VCTS IN ABOUT AN HOUR. STILL EXPECTING SHRA/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THOUGH I/VE PUSHED THE TEMPO
GROUP FOR THUNDER BACK AN HOUR...TO 02-05 UTC. IFR STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IF THERE ISN/T MUCH
PCPN AROUND THE AIRFIELD...THEN THE LOW CLOUDS MAY STAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...DOWN ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE S TO SW OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE
FOOTHILLS TMRW WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE PIEDMONT
IN THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING...SHRA/TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. I
STILL EXPECT ENOUGH COVERAGE THAT TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT
ALL TAF SITES FOR VARIOUS PERIODS OF TIME INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THERE WAS AN AREA OF TSTMS NOT TOO FAR NW OF KGSP AND KGMU AT
ISSUANCE TIME ALONG WITH OTHER STRONG STORMS ABOUT 15 MILES NORTH OF
KAVL. LATER TONIGHT VALLEY FOG IS A GOOD BET ACROSS THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS LATE NIGHT CLEARING. THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SW OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
THIS MAY CAUSE IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF ALL THE TAF SITES...DOWN
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. HOWEVER...IF THERE IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH SHRA/TSTMS...THEN THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FORM CLOSER TO THE
MTNS. I/M BANKING ON THIS AND HAVE INCLUDED IFR CIGS LATER
TONIGHT...IN LINE WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY...
WITH DRIER HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
325 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-111930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
325 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1000 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

NCZ053-110230-
BUNCOMBE-
1000 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BUNCOMBE COUNTY THROUGH
1030 PM EDT...

AT 959 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR UNC ASHEVILLE...OR NEAR DOWNTOWN
ASHEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...
  ASHEVILLE MALL...
  FAIRVIEW...

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3572 8243 3552 8239 3550 8268 3568 8270

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1001 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

NCZ504-506-110230-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER BURKE-
1001 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN MCDOWELL AND
SOUTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 PM EDT...

AT 959 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF DYSARTSVILLE...OR 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MARION...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  DYSARTSVILLE...

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3577 8164 3559 8168 3559 8171 3561 8172
      3561 8175 3559 8178 3559 8180 3558 8180
      3556 8199 3574 8199 3576 8195 3578 8192

NED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1032 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0949 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S MARION              35.62N 82.01W
08/10/2012                   MCDOWELL           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TWO TREES DOWN ALONG GOOSE CREEK ROAD. TIME DETERMINED
            FROM RADAR DATA.

&&

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1046 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

SCZ002>006-010-110330-
ANDERSON-GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREENVILLE
MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
1046 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GREENVILLE...EASTERN
OCONEE...NORTHERN ANDERSON AND PICKENS COUNTIES THROUGH 1130 PM
EDT...

AT 1041 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NINE TIMES TO
SENECA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  PICKENS...
  PENDLETON...
  LIBERTY...
  EASLEY...
  TRAVELERS REST...
  POWDERSVILLE...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3462 8304 3476 8297 3481 8289 3487 8291
      3501 8284 3503 8236 3460 8258

JOH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1159 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N EASLEY              34.88N 82.60W
08/10/2012                   PICKENS            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE BLOCKING CANNERY ROAD NEAR HIGHWAY 135. ANOTHER TREE
            BLOWN DOWN NEARBY ON PRINCE GEORGE ROAD.

&&

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1223 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

NCZ068-508-510-SCZ007-008-013-110515-
CHEROKEE-CLEVELAND-EASTERN POLK-GREATER RUTHERFORD-SPARTANBURG-UNION-
1223 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CHEROKEE...NORTHERN UNION...
SOUTHEASTERN POLK...SOUTHERN RUTHERFORD...SOUTHWESTERN CLEVELAND AND
SPARTANBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 115 AM EDT...

AT 1222 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FINGERVILLE TO
MOORE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  BOILING SPRINGS SC...
  SPARTANBURG...
  MAYO...
  COWPENS...
  CLIFFSIDE...
  JONESVILLE...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3475 8212 3478 8214 3521 8214 3531 8149
      3473 8150

JOH