Severe Thunderstorm Warning 545, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

019 
WWUS52 KGSP 111935
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
335 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

NCC003-112015-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0545.000000T0000Z-120811T2015Z/
ALEXANDER NC-
335 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
ALEXANDER COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 333 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
TAYLORSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR ROCKY SPRINGS AND 
SMITHS STORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER
LINES. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3605 8103 3598 8100 3591 8103 3589 8126
      3601 8126 3604 8110 3603 8108
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 280DEG 12KT 3596 8116

$$

NED

389 
WWUS52 KGSP 111945
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

NCC003-112015-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0545.000000T0000Z-120811T2015Z/
ALEXANDER NC-
345 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
ALEXANDER COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 343 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TAYLORSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR SMITHS STORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER
LINES. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3605 8103 3598 8100 3591 8103 3590 8118
      3602 8119 3603 8117 3604 8110 3603 8108
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 280DEG 12KT 3596 8110

$$

NED

539 
WWUS52 KGSP 111958
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
358 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

NCC003-112009-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0545.000000T0000Z-120811T2015Z/
ALEXANDER NC-
358 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ALEXANDER COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH
THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3605 8103 3598 8100 3591 8103 3590 8118
      3602 8119 3603 8117 3604 8110 3603 8108
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 280DEG 12KT 3595 8104

$$

NED

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND REACHING THE COAST BY MONDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HANGING ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE AS OF MID AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS TO THE EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO YIELD A CAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG. UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AIDED BY WEAK UPPER
FORCING. WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE KEPT THE IDEA OF LIKELY POP OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES AND A CHANCE ALONG/E OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD. PRECIP CHANCES WERE GRADUALLY MOVED OFF TO THE EAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND SHOULD GENERALLY TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS
ALL THE BUT THE EASTERN FRINGE. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT WITH AMPLE LOW MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL DRYING.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE FIRST RELATIVELY QUIET DAY THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS HAVE HAD IN OVER A WEEK. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE IN
OVERHEAD WHICH WILL SUPPORT DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE
W/NW. TEMPS WERE NUDGED TOWARD A GUIDANCE BLEND...WHICH GENERALLY
WAS A BIT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 230 PM EDT...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AN H5 TROF WILL
SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE OVERALL MID LEVEL FLOW
FLATTENS TO A ZONAL TREND. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IN THIS SEGEMENT OF
THE FORECAST...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA (FA) AND WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS.

MEANWHILE THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
BACK LATER ON MONDAY AS THE TROF BEGINS TO APPROACH. THIS BACKING
WILL ALLOW A WEAK WARM ADVECTION PROCESS TO COMMENCE LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AN ISOLATED NC
MOUNTAIN TOP THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT. WE HAVE ADVERTISED THOSE IN THE FORECAST AND WILL HOLD FOR
NOW.

HOWEVER THE MAIN SHOT OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.

THE UPSHOT...WE HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROCESS OF POPS COMING INTO THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST... MORE IN LINE WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND
NAM. THE NEW GFS HAS ALSO SLOWED THINGS DOWN AND THIS RESULTS IN A
HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST PACKAGE. WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...AND WATCH HOW CONDITIONS
UNFOLD.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLUSTERED AROUND EACH MODEL AS A RESULT WE
REMAINED CLOSE TO GUIDE VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT IS DEBATABLE IF THE
COLD FRONT NOTED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CLEAR A LATITUDE SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS...WITH THE
GFS AND HPC OPTING FOR THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF OUR REGION...WHILE THE
EUROPEAN HOLDS THE FRONT QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA. WE
WILL FOLLOW CONTINUITY FOR THE MOMENT AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO REMAIN
OUTSIDE OUR FA WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE YET ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT (WHICH APPEARS STRONGER THAN
THE TUESDAY FRONT) WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
CROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL ONCE AGAIN GO UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT (FROM WEST TO EAST) DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

WE FOLLOWED HPC CLOSELY WITH REGARDS IN TEMPERATURE BUT MADE SOME
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF POPS AND ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...BROKEN CLOUDS WITH BASES AT THE MVFR LEVEL SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SCATTER THROUGH ABOUT 20Z...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO
KEEP SHOWERS DEVELOPING INTO THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...SO A TEMPO WAS INCLUDED IN THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME TO
HANDLE THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE
EAST BY LATE EVENING. FOG COULD BECOME A PROBLEM EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST BUT DRY AIR MOVES IN ALOFT.
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD WILL BE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF IFR IS POSSIBLE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BE HANDLED
WITH VCSH. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS.
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS BECOMING
DENSE WITH IFR VISIBILITY OVER THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS AFTER 08Z. THE FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR. THE NEXT FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...TS
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
409 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-121000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
409 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD...ALTHOUGH LARGE
HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
ISOLATED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE RECENT RAINFALL HAS
SATURATED THE GROUND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1236 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

NCZ037-111715-
DAVIE-
1236 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT DAVIE COUNTY THROUGH 115 PM
EDT...

AT 1230 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF ADVANCE...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MOCKSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  BERMUDA RUN...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3589 8036 3589 8041 3586 8038 3583 8043
      3582 8047 3577 8047 3579 8053 3583 8059
      3591 8065 3607 8047 3601 8041 3599 8041
      3596 8037

STUREY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
314 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

NCZ035-111945-
ALEXANDER-
314 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ALEXANDER COUNTY
THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 311 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF ELLENDALE...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST
OF TAYLORSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  TAYLORSVILLE...

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3605 8103 3595 8101 3594 8101 3589 8133
      3601 8132

NED