Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
229 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED AS
ANTICIPATED AND EXPECT THEY WILL BECOME NUMEROUS IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. UPPER VORT MAX
MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE SC AND GENERALLY LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT
DRIVING THE CONVECTION. IN REGARD TO THE SEVERE THREAT...THE MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MUCH BETTER TO THE N OF OUR AREA THIS
AFTN...BUT 500 MB WINDS COULD APPROACH 25 KT ACROSS THE FAR NRN
TIER WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A MULTICELL MODE THERE. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...THE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PRODUCE CAPES OF
1500-2000J WHICH WILL SUPPORT A PULSE SEVERE THREAT PRIMARLY FOR
WET MICROBURSTS.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE QUICKLY AFTER 00Z AS WEAK NVA SETTLES IN
BEHIND THE VORT. HOWEVER...A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE
EASTERN UPSTATE MAY ALLOW A COUPLE ISOLATED STORMS TO HANG ON
THERE INTO THE LATE EVENING PER NAM/GFM RESPONSE THAT AREA.

EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH DISSIPATING DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND SOME MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG LATE. A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED
MOS INDICATES THAT MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT A CATEGORY LOWER THAN
LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE.

ON SAT...THE MORNING SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET. HOWEVER...DURING THE
AFTERNOON A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE.
THIS FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A RATHER IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE FOR MID
SUMMER IN THE DEEP SOUTH. HENCE...EXPECT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH BEST COVERAGE FROM THE NC
FOOTHILLS ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT...BUT EXTENDING WEST INTO THE
EASTERN UPSTATE OF SC. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRY AIR ALOFT SO A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE PRESENT AS WELL. MAX TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD
BE ABOUT A CATEGORY LOWER THAN TODAY BASED ON A MOS BLEND. SO NO
HEAT ADVIORY NECESSARY ON SAT ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN HOT AND ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST
COAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER WILL MOVE INTO
THE THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE REMAINS OF A FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...AND DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST A LINGERING MOIST
LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...WITH WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
PRESENT. CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED ON SUNDAY... FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS FOR OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...AND THE PIEDMONT WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND BETTER MOISTURE. NAM SOUNDINGS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH INSTABILITY AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
SHEAR. GFS SOUNDING ARE CHARACTERISTICALLY LESS UNSTABLE....AND ALSO
HAVE LESS SHEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT THE SECOND SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH... AND ON MONDAY IT EXITS THE AREA. THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAINS JUST OFF TO OUR EAST...AND THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER REMAINS
MOIST. WITH NO APPARENT UPPER LEVEL FORCING...ONLY VERY SMALL POPS
WILL BE CARRIED IN AN AIR MASS THAT REMAINS UNSTABLE...WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL FOR ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WITHIN THE BASE OF LINGERING EASTERN CONUS L/WV TROUGH.
GIVEN THE UNSETTLED LOOK OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...SOLID CHANCE
POP WILL BE NUDGED UPWARD. INTO WEDNESDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE MEAN PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WX...DIURNALLY
ENHANCED TSTM CHANCES. DAILY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMO. I WOULD EXPECT ABOVE CLIMO TSTM CHANCES TO
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS WELL GIVEN THE ONLY NOMINAL CHANGE TO THE
PATTERN ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE LATEST ECMWF IS HINTING AT A
TRANSITION TOWARD A WEAKER/DEAMPLIFYING FLOW REGIME BY THE END OF
PERIOD. NEW DAY 7 POPS WILL FEATURE SLIGHT AND/OR SMALL DIURNAL
TSTM CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR PERSISTENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...TIMING OF CONVECTION AT THE AIRPORT IS MAIN PROBLEM.
LATEST LOCAL WRF RUN SEEMS TO BE CAPTURING CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND IT
SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 20Z FOR THE AIRFIELD. HENCE...WILL RUN
A TEMPO FOR TSRA FROM 20-22Z AND THEN A VCSH TIL AROUND 00Z. EXPECT
AFTER 00Z ONLY SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS. IF SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
OCCURS AT THE AIRFIELD...CAN'T RULE OUT SOME MVFR TYPE FOG EARLY ON
SAT...BUT FOR NOW HAVE NOT INTRODUCED THAT. ON SAT...THE MORNING
SHOULD BE QUIET WITH CONVECTION ARRIVING AFTER THIS TAF TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA TRIGGERED BY AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE.
HENCE...EXPECT ALL AIRFIELDS TO BE AFFECTED IN APPROXIMATELY 19Z-23Z
TIMEFRAME. EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE QUICKLY AFTER 00Z AS TROUGH
MOVES TO THE EAAT. EXPECT SOME IFR/LIFR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND
AROUND KHKY AS EXPECT MOST AREAS TO HAVE SOME RAINFALL. CONVECTION
ON SAT SHOULD BE AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A DAILY CHANCE OF SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER
THE AREA.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ029.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ071-072-082.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ009-011>014-
     019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
621 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

GAZ018-026-028-NCZ036-037-057-068>070-508-510-SCZ001>008-010-281030-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-IREDELL-DAVIE-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-
621 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 100 AND 104
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS
OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...
AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE PRIMARY THREAT. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING CAN OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ029-NCZ071-072-082-SCZ009-011>014-019-281030-
ELBERT-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-YORK-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-
CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
621 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN OCCUR WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035-048>053-056-058-059-062>065-501>507-509-281030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-ALEXANDER-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-
HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
621 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON...AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE...WITH
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE HAIL.
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN OCCUR WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
454 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

GAZ028-029-SCZ010-011-019-272130-
ABBEVILLE-ANDERSON-ELBERT-GREENWOOD-HART-
454 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ABBEVILLE...NORTHERN ELBERT...
NORTHWESTERN GREENWOOD...SOUTHEASTERN HART AND SOUTHERN ANDERSON
COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

AT 452 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BELTON TO 5 MILES EAST OF NUBERG...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  RUCKERSVILLE...
  HONEA PATH...
  LAKE RUSSELL...
  LOWNDESVILLE...
  DUE WEST...
  WARE SHOALS...

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3424 8307 3457 8252 3448 8231 3436 8218
      3407 8263

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
455 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW COLUMBUS          35.27N 82.27W
07/27/2012                   POLK               NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON HOLBERT COVE ROAD.

&&

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
459 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 ESE COLUMBUS          35.22N 82.05W
07/27/2012                   POLK               NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN THREE LOCATIONS IN THE GREEN CREEK
            COMMUNITY.

&&

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

NCZ036-056-057-272145-
CATAWBA-IREDELL-ROWAN-
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CATAWBA...SOUTHERN
IREDELL AND SOUTHWESTERN ROWAN COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

AT 456 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF TERRELL...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF NEWTON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  TERRELL...
  TROUTMAN...
  MOORESVILLE...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3551 8091 3550 8093 3550 8096 3553 8096
      3553 8094 3555 8096 3556 8113 3569 8113
      3572 8057 3550 8058

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
505 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S LIBERTY             34.78N 82.70W
07/27/2012                   PICKENS            SC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN BRINGING DOWN 2 POWER POLES.

0339 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SIX MILE                34.81N 82.82W
07/27/2012                   PICKENS            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW TREES DOWN IN THE SIX MILE AREA.

&&

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
513 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

NCZ069-070-272200-
GASTON-LINCOLN-
513 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LINCOLN AND NORTHERN GASTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 508 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CHERRYVILLE...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LINCOLNTON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MOUNTAIN
  ISLAND LAKE...LAKE NORMAN...STANLEY...LUCIA...LOWESVILLE...
  LINCOLNTON...IRON STATION...HIGH SHOALS...DENVER...CROUSE...
  CHERRYVILLE AND BOGER CITY.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3535 8097 3532 8098 3531 8137 3533 8136
      3540 8144 3548 8145 3556 8103 3555 8096
      3553 8094 3550 8096 3545 8094 3539 8096
      3537 8098 3537 8096 3536 8092

07