Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
229 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED AS
ANTICIPATED AND EXPECT THEY WILL BECOME NUMEROUS IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. UPPER VORT MAX
MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE SC AND GENERALLY LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT
DRIVING THE CONVECTION. IN REGARD TO THE SEVERE THREAT...THE MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MUCH BETTER TO THE N OF OUR AREA THIS
AFTN...BUT 500 MB WINDS COULD APPROACH 25 KT ACROSS THE FAR NRN
TIER WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A MULTICELL MODE THERE. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...THE STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PRODUCE CAPES OF
1500-2000J WHICH WILL SUPPORT A PULSE SEVERE THREAT PRIMARLY FOR
WET MICROBURSTS.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE QUICKLY AFTER 00Z AS WEAK NVA SETTLES IN
BEHIND THE VORT. HOWEVER...A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE
EASTERN UPSTATE MAY ALLOW A COUPLE ISOLATED STORMS TO HANG ON
THERE INTO THE LATE EVENING PER NAM/GFM RESPONSE THAT AREA.

EXPECT GENERALLY A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH DISSIPATING DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND SOME MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG LATE. A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED
MOS INDICATES THAT MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT A CATEGORY LOWER THAN
LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE.

ON SAT...THE MORNING SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET. HOWEVER...DURING THE
AFTERNOON A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE.
THIS FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A RATHER IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE FOR MID
SUMMER IN THE DEEP SOUTH. HENCE...EXPECT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH BEST COVERAGE FROM THE NC
FOOTHILLS ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT...BUT EXTENDING WEST INTO THE
EASTERN UPSTATE OF SC. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRY AIR ALOFT SO A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE PRESENT AS WELL. MAX TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD
BE ABOUT A CATEGORY LOWER THAN TODAY BASED ON A MOS BLEND. SO NO
HEAT ADVIORY NECESSARY ON SAT ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN HOT AND ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST
COAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER WILL MOVE INTO
THE THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE REMAINS OF A FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...AND DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST A LINGERING MOIST
LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB...WITH WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
PRESENT. CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED ON SUNDAY... FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS FOR OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...AND THE PIEDMONT WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND BETTER MOISTURE. NAM SOUNDINGS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH INSTABILITY AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
SHEAR. GFS SOUNDING ARE CHARACTERISTICALLY LESS UNSTABLE....AND ALSO
HAVE LESS SHEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT THE SECOND SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH... AND ON MONDAY IT EXITS THE AREA. THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAINS JUST OFF TO OUR EAST...AND THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER REMAINS
MOIST. WITH NO APPARENT UPPER LEVEL FORCING...ONLY VERY SMALL POPS
WILL BE CARRIED IN AN AIR MASS THAT REMAINS UNSTABLE...WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO
ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL FOR ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WITHIN THE BASE OF LINGERING EASTERN CONUS L/WV TROUGH.
GIVEN THE UNSETTLED LOOK OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...SOLID CHANCE
POP WILL BE NUDGED UPWARD. INTO WEDNESDAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE MEAN PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WX...DIURNALLY
ENHANCED TSTM CHANCES. DAILY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF CLIMO. I WOULD EXPECT ABOVE CLIMO TSTM CHANCES TO
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS WELL GIVEN THE ONLY NOMINAL CHANGE TO THE
PATTERN ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE LATEST ECMWF IS HINTING AT A
TRANSITION TOWARD A WEAKER/DEAMPLIFYING FLOW REGIME BY THE END OF
PERIOD. NEW DAY 7 POPS WILL FEATURE SLIGHT AND/OR SMALL DIURNAL
TSTM CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES NEAR PERSISTENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...TIMING OF CONVECTION AT THE AIRPORT IS MAIN PROBLEM.
LATEST LOCAL WRF RUN SEEMS TO BE CAPTURING CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND IT
SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 20Z FOR THE AIRFIELD. HENCE...WILL RUN
A TEMPO FOR TSRA FROM 20-22Z AND THEN A VCSH TIL AROUND 00Z. EXPECT
AFTER 00Z ONLY SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS. IF SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
OCCURS AT THE AIRFIELD...CAN'T RULE OUT SOME MVFR TYPE FOG EARLY ON
SAT...BUT FOR NOW HAVE NOT INTRODUCED THAT. ON SAT...THE MORNING
SHOULD BE QUIET WITH CONVECTION ARRIVING AFTER THIS TAF TIMEFRAME.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA TRIGGERED BY AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE.
HENCE...EXPECT ALL AIRFIELDS TO BE AFFECTED IN APPROXIMATELY 19Z-23Z
TIMEFRAME. EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE QUICKLY AFTER 00Z AS TROUGH
MOVES TO THE EAAT. EXPECT SOME IFR/LIFR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND
AROUND KHKY AS EXPECT MOST AREAS TO HAVE SOME RAINFALL. CONVECTION
ON SAT SHOULD BE AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A DAILY CHANCE OF SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER
THE AREA.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ029.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ071-072-082.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ009-011>014-
     019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...LG

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
314 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

NCZ033-050-501-503-505-272000-
AVERY-BURKE MOUNTAINS-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-MITCHELL-
314 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN MITCHELL...NORTHEASTERN
MCDOWELL...NORTHWESTERN BURKE...SOUTHERN AVERY AND WESTERN CALDWELL
COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 311 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF INGALLS...OR 5 MILES NORTH OF
SPRUCE PINE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LINVILLE...
  EDGEMONT...SPRUCE PINE...LEDGER...JONAS RIDGE...INGALLS...
  CROSSNORE...BANDANA...BAKERSVILLE AND ASHFORD.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3607 8170 3589 8173 3584 8183 3589 8215
      3593 8215 3593 8217 3594 8219 3608 8217

07

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
331 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

SCZ003-006-007-272000-
GREATER GREENVILLE-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-SPARTANBURG-
331 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GREENVILLE AND WESTERN
SPARTANBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 327 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MARIETTA...OR 14 MILES NORTH OF DOWNTOWN
GREENVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  TIGERVILLE...
  FURMAN UNIVERSITY...
  LAKE ROBINSON...
  WHITE HORSE ROAD AT I-85...
  GREER...

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3469 8239 3485 8249 3488 8249 3492 8252
      3497 8253 3498 8254 3501 8254 3502 8257
      3516 8248 3508 8207 3484 8220

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
333 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

SCZ001-004-005-010-272015-
ANDERSON-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
333 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN OCONEE...NORTHERN
ANDERSON AND SOUTHERN PICKENS COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 331 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SIX MILE...OR 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CLEMSON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CENTRAL...
  NORRIS...
  LIBERTY...
  EASLEY...

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3470 8299 3487 8295 3487 8290 3481 8289
      3486 8279 3484 8249 3477 8245 3475 8246
      3468 8246 3467 8247 3466 8246 3459 8247

ARK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
349 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

NCZ504-506-272030-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER BURKE-
349 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN MCDOWELL AND SOUTHERN
BURKE COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

AT 344 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTH OF NEBO...OR 4 MILES EAST OF
MARION...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
  JAMES...PLEASANT GROVE...MORGANTON...MARION...GLENWOOD...GLEN
  ALPINE...FERO...DYSARTSVILLE...DREXEL AND NEBO.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3580 8157 3558 8152 3557 8168 3561 8172
      3560 8174 3561 8175 3559 8177 3560 8179
      3557 8183 3557 8201 3571 8204 3577 8194
      3584 8163

07