Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1042 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OPF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA LATE FRIDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED EAST TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE THIS EVENING. WITH NO LINGERING OUTFLOWS FROM EARLY
EVENING CONVECTION...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT RAPIDLY AROUND THE AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE NRN TIER
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK.

A BELT OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WILL DIVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES ON TUE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE MCS IN
THIS AREA. THE WIND SHEAR GRADUALLY DECREASES TO THE SOUTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE STRONG H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE MCS DEVELOPMENT...THE NRN ZONES MAY
SEE AN AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER THE VIRGINIAS MAY RESULT IN THE
BELT OF GREATEST INSTABILITY DOWN ACROSS WRN NC AND NRN SC...WHICH
WILL ALSO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TUE. THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK HAS MOST OF THE FA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MENTIONED IN
THE HWO FOR TUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN OLD COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT. AT H5...RIDGE CENTER WILL REMAIN OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SHEAR WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BULK SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS
BELOW 6 KM. HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SHOULD
RESULT IN MODERATE CAPE VALUES AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT AN MCS MAY TRACK ACROSS
KY DURING THE MORNING...WITH REMNANT CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE MCV
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE
DAY. I WILL FORECAST POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND
40 PERCENT ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...ORGANIZED
MULTI-CELL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD OVER 590 DAM DURING THE DAY. LLVL
SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD WEAKEN WITH THE RETURN OF THE RIDGE.
AT THE SFC...A LEE TROF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA. WEAK
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DEEP MIXING MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
DEWPOINTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS.
THE LOWER DEWPOINT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER CIN VALUES. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIDGETOP TSRA BY MID
AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. I WILL FORECAST 30
TO 40 POPS ACROSS THE MTNS WITH LOW CHC POPS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER 90S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...THE LATEST OP MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A OMEGA
BLOCK SETTING UP ACROSS THE NRN ATL OCEAN. THIS WILL INDUCE AND
DEEPEN ANOTHER EAST COAST TROF AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA BY SAT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE CWFA SAT
THROUGH SUN AND PERHAPS LIFT A LITTLE NORTH ON MON. THE STRONGEST
UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER GOOD OVERALL
DYNAMICAL LIFT AND H3 DIV ALONG WITH PLENTY OF LLVL INSTABILITY WILL
BE AVAILABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE DIURNAL TSTMS EACH DAY EXPECT
PERHAPS SUN. NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY IS ALSO PROBABLE FRI/SAT NIGHT WITH
THE FROPA LATE FRI AND A REINFORCING S/W PUSHING IN LATE SAT. POPS
WERE MAINTAINED AT NEAR CLIMO...HOWEVER IF THIS PATTERN AND S/W
TIMING PERSISTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE MODEL RUNS...AN INCREASE IN
POPS WILL BE WARRANTED FOR FRI/SAT. SUN LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY
WITH FAIRLY STRONG HIPRES BUILDING IN...YET THE FRONT WILL BE
SHUNTED JUST TO THE SOUTH...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE CARRIED
THROUGH THE DAY. MON WILL BE ACTIVE AGAIN AS ANOTHER SHOT OF UPPER
ENERGY ROUNDS THE WRN RIDGE AND TRAVERSES THE REGION. MAX AND MIN
TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND OR PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FRI/SAT. WITH NW/LY FLOW SETTING UP SUN...EXPECT A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER IN THE MTNS SUN AND PERHAPS EVEN MON. YET...A GOOD DOWNSLOPE
WARMING COMPONENT WILL ENABLE MAXES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL OVER THE
NON/MTNS BOTH SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE ISOLATED POCKETS OF SFC BASED
INSTABILITY AROUND THE REGION...LITTLE TO NO TRIGGERS REMAIN WITH
THE WEAK UPPER WAVE HEADING OFF THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING...AND NO
APPARENT LINGERING OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. THUS EXPECT NO
MORE SHRA OR TSRA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BUT MAINLY SETTLE OUT
TO A SW DIRECTION THROUGH TUE MORNING. WILL NOT MENTION ANY FOG
GIVEN THE LACK OF MUCH RAIN AT THE AIRFIELD...AND THE VSBY THE PAST
TWO MORNINGS. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BY 19Z TUE...WITH TSTM
CHANGES RAMPING BACK UP AS ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
REGION ON IMPROVING NW FLOW. WILL FEATURE PROB30 AFTER 20Z.

ELSEWHERE...ALL SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AROUND THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH FOG OR LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN
MOST LIKELY FROM KAVL TO KHKY...AND IN THE SW MTN VALLEYS. FLOW WILL
TURN WNW TO NW ON TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE
REGION. ALL LOCATIONS WILL GET A PROB30 FOR TSTMS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTN.

OUTLOOK...SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH WED AS A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. NOT LOOKING
FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF OVERNIGHT RESTRICTIONS OUTSIDE OF AREAS THAT
SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG/MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
747 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-250000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
747 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER AND LARGE HAIL. A MORE
ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS COULD AFFECT WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA SOME
TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS TO OUR OFFICE.

HG

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1155 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

NCZ070-071-SCZ009-240430-
GASTON-MECKLENBURG-YORK-
1155 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN YORK...SOUTHEASTERN
GASTON AND SOUTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 AM EDT...

AT 1149 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CROWDERS...OR 7 MILES SOUTH
OF GASTONIA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CRAMERTON...
  LAKE WYLIE...
  CAROWINDS...
  PINEVILLE...
  SOUTHPARK MALL...

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3504 8076 3503 8080 3501 8083 3501 8086
      3505 8089 3502 8090 3507 8124 3525 8121
      3526 8074

RB