Severe Thunderstorm Warning 458, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

796 
WWUS52 KGSP 241801
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
201 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

NCC011-023-027-241830-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0458.000000T0000Z-120724T1830Z/
AVERY NC-CALDWELL NC-BURKE NC-
201 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
BURKE...NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL AND AVERY COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 158 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HAMPTON...OR 9 MILES WEST OF BEECH MOUNTAIN...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  BANNER ELK...NEWLAND AND LINVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL CAN CAUSE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO VEHICLES.
DAMAGING WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3628 8189 3621 8190 3619 8184 3616 8182
      3612 8181 3613 8159 3612 8159 3584 8187
      3595 8193 3595 8195 3611 8207 3613 8203
      3629 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 310DEG 16KT 3622 8204

$$

07

384 
WWUS52 KGSP 241831
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
231 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

NCC011-023-027-241841-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0458.000000T0000Z-120724T1830Z/
AVERY NC-CALDWELL NC-BURKE NC-
231 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BURKE...
NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL AND AVERY COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED ACROSS THIS AREA.

LAT...LON 3628 8189 3621 8190 3619 8184 3616 8182
      3612 8181 3613 8159 3612 8159 3584 8187
      3595 8193 3595 8195 3611 8207 3613 8203
      3629 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 310DEG 16KT 3622 8204

$$

07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1109 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA ON FRIDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1105 AM EDT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE ALREADY
THIS MORNING AS MOST OF THE FA IS EXPERIENCING FULL SUN. CONVECTION
IS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OF THE FA OVER ERN KY AND WV. A LONG LIVED
MCS IS MOVING SE AT OVER 50 KTS ACROSS CENTRAL IN AND WRN OH ATTM.
I/M NOT SURE IF THIS FEATURE WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT OUR NRN
ZONES STARTING AROUND 20 UTC...OR IF THE LEAD CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP IT/S OWN COLD POOL AND BECOME AN MCS. HOWEVER...I/M
CONFIDENT THAT ONE OF THESE FEATURES WILL AFFECT THE FA STARTING
BETWEEN ABOUT 2 AND 3 PM. THE WRF-ARW DROPS A WELL FORMED MCS ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 19-22 UTC. I/VE USED THIS TIMING
TO ADJUST POPS UP INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE ALONG THE PROBABLE MCS
PATH LATER IN THE AFTN. THE RAP 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE
OF THIS AS IT INCREASES TO OVER 30 KTS OVER THE NC ZONES AND THE ERN
PART OF THE UPSTATE BY LATE AFTN. I/VE ADDED DAMAGING WIND WORDING
TO THE ZONES IN THESE AREAS AND THE HWO WILL BE PUNCHED UP AS WELL.
ALL OF THIS MATCHES WITH SPC/S 30 PERCENT DAMAGING WIND PROBS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA NORTH AND EAST OF A GREENVILLE TO ASHEVILLE LINE
FOR LATER TODAY.

AS OF 640 AM...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG THIS MRNG SO REDUCED
MENTION MOST AREAS. TEMPS WERE TWEAKED WITH LATEST TRENDS...
OTHERWISE FCST IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THIS UPDATE.

STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...INCLUDING A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES...
COMBINED WITH GOOD INSTABILITY AND STRONG INSOLATION...IS EXPECTED
TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY. BETTER SHEAR WILL INCREASE THE CHC OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE REGION AND SPC HAS PUT THE ENTIRE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR
SVR STORMS TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE
BUT LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN ISOLD TORNADO WILL ALSO BE PSBL THIS AFTN
AND EVE. COULD ALSO SEE AN MCS DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND DRIFT INTO THE
AREA THIS EVE. ABOVE AVG HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT WITH A FEW UPPER 90S IN THE S ZONES. LOWER MTN VLYS
WILL WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S. CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE
THIS EVE BUT A SLIGHT CHC WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MTNS AS
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
BE A COUPLE DEG ABOVE AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA WITH
NW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HRS...THE RIDGE FLATTENS A FAIR AMOUNT AS A POTENT LOOKING
SHORTWAVE...THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER H5 TROF...BEGINS TO DIVE
DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT 12Z ON FRIDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS EARLY IN THE MORNING BRINGING A DECENT SURGE OF LOW TO MID
LVL MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY 0 TO 6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30KTS OVER THE AREA WITH SFC
BASED CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. AN MCS COULD DEVELOP TO
OUR NW AND TRACK OVER THE CAROLINAS DURING THE MORNING...WITH
REMNANT CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA DURING THE DAY/EVENING. SOME ORGANIZED CELLS COULD FORM THRU
THE DAY WITH SHEAR VALUES STAYING UP IN THE 20KT RANGE AND HIGH
TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL. THINGS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SETTLE
DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LVLS COOL.

ON THURSDAY...BULK SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY. AT THE
SFC...A LEE TROF WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH WEAK
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DEEPER MIXING. THIS SHOULD BRING DOWN LOW LVL
DEWPTS MAKING ANY WIDESPREAD TSRA LESS LIKELY. I REDUCED POPS
OVERALL FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST AND ONLY HAVE A SOLID CHANCE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD APPROACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS WITH MID TO UPPER
90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM EDT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MEDIUM
RANGE FCST. STILL ANTICIPATING ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY WITH SFC RIDGING MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND LINGERING
INTO NEXT WEEK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...THE LATEST OP MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A OMEGA
BLOCK SETTING UP ACROSS THE NRN ATL OCEAN. THIS WILL INDUCE AND
DEEPEN ANOTHER EAST COAST TROF AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA BY SAT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE CWFA SAT
THROUGH SUN AND PERHAPS LIFT A LITTLE NORTH ON MON. THE STRONGEST
UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER GOOD OVERALL
DYNAMICAL LIFT AND H3 DIV ALONG WITH PLENTY OF LLVL INSTABILITY WILL
BE AVAILABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE DIURNAL TSTMS EACH DAY EXPECT
PERHAPS SUN. NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY IS ALSO PROBABLE FRI/SAT NIGHT WITH
THE FROPA LATE FRI AND A REINFORCING S/W PUSHING IN LATE SAT. POPS
WERE MAINTAINED AT NEAR CLIMO...HOWEVER IF THIS PATTERN AND S/W
TIMING PERSISTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE MODEL RUNS...AN INCREASE IN
POPS WILL BE WARRANTED FOR FRI/SAT. SUN LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY
WITH FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...YET THE FRONT WILL BE
SHUNTED JUST TO THE SOUTH...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE CARRIED
THROUGH THE DAY. MON WILL BE ACTIVE AGAIN AS ANOTHER SHOT OF UPPER
ENERGY ROUNDS THE WRN RIDGE AND TRAVERSES THE REGION. MAX AND MIN
TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND OR PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FRI/SAT. WITH NW/LY FLOW SETTING UP SUN...EXPECT A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER IN THE MTNS SUN AND PERHAPS EVEN MON. YET...A GOOD DOWNSLOPE
WARMING COMPONENT WILL ENABLE MAXES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL OVER THE
NON/MTNS BOTH SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...ANY PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MRNG...THEN CUMULUS WILL INCREASE AND BUILD
IN THE AFTN WITH AT LEAST SCT TSTMS ACROSS THE CWA BY MID-LATE AFTN.
ALL LOCATIONS GET A PROB30 FOR TSTMS TIL 00Z BUT EXPECT ISOLD-SCT
CONVECTION THIS EVE. LGT WINDS EARLY WILL PICK UP WITH MIXING FROM W
TO NW BY AFTN AT 7-10KT.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT SOLID CHC CONVECTION WED AS A COUPLE WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. BEST CHC OF OVERNIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN AREAS THAT SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1232 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-251645-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1232 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE LINES
ACROSS TENNESSEE AND WEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
ORGANIZED AREAS OF STORMS WILL THEN SWEEP TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
AFFECT WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY MID AFTERNOON AND UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA A FEW HOURS LATER.

IT/S LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT AREAS OF WIDESPREAD
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS EVEN POSSIBLE. THE AREAS WITH THE GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS WILL INCLUDE THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH
CAROLINA ALONG WITH THE NORTHERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND SOME LARGE
HAIL WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THE LARGER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS MUCH WIND SHEAR AS ON
TUESDAY...BUT SOME OF THE STORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

MCAVOY