Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
151 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 130 PM EDT... CONVECTIVE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ACROSS
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA.
EXPECT CONVECTIVE WEATHER TO BE PRIMARY FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON. RAP
CAPES DISPLAY AN AXIS OF 3000 J/KG EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF KGSP TO
VICINITY KCLT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 1030 AM EDT... MORNING DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT CLOUDINESS
FROM OVERNIGHT MCS TO OUR WEST AND FRONT TO THE NORTH IS SPREADING
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. CLOUDS COULD PUT A LITTLE BIT OF A DAMPER OR
DELAY ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION... BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR CLOUDS TO ERODE THUS ALLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER TO
COLLECT SOME WARMTH.  IN THE VERY NEAR TERM... WILL DECREASE POPS
BUT INCREASE THEM TO CURRENT FORECAST VALUE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON RAP CAPES ARE IN THE 1500 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE WITH AXIS OF
HIGHEST CAPE FROM APPROXIMALY KAND TO KCLT BY 17Z. NAM CAPES ARE A
LITTLE LOWER... GENERALLY 1000 TO 2000 J/KG... EXCEPT LESS THAN 1000
OVER MOUNTAINS. WIND PROFILES IDENTIFY VERY LITTLE SHEAR... SO PULSE
STORMS WITH LITTLE ORGANIZATION EXPECTED. QUITE POSSIBLE THAT SOME
MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAN DEVELOP... BUT RAP DCAPES ARE ONLY AROUND 500
J/KG SO THAT LOWERS CONFIDENCE A LITTLE THAT MAJOR COLD POOLS WILL
DEVELOP. HOWEVER... NAM MOVES AN AXIS OF DCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG
ACROSS CWA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY. POTENTIAL FOR THAT FEATURE
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

AS OF 605 AM EDT...MCS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN WEAKENING TO OUR WEST...BUT
IT IS STILL GENERATING QUITE A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
OVER CENTRAL TENN AND NORTHERN ALABAMA. OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY WE HAVE SEEN HAS BEEN OVER THE FAR
WESTERN NC MTS...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER
THIS MORNING AS THINGS BEGIN TO HEAT UP AND THE FIRST UPPER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPS ARE HOLDING A BIT WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED...SO I BUMPED UP THE MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR 2.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY...WHILE A PAIR
OF FAIRLY POTENT LOOKING H5 SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING MOIST AND UNSTABLE...I KEEP
POPS AT LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE CWFA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
THRU THE LATE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN...AND WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
PRESENT...SOME ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
PIEDMONT. WITH BETTER STEERING FLOW AND MOVING STORMS...FLOODING
SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH OF A CONCERN...HOWEVER LOCALIZED...HIGH QPF
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TRAINING OR REPEATING CELLS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...AS LONG AS CLOUD COVER BREAKS
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SUFFICIENT HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
EAST COAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS. A WEAKENING...STALLED SURFACE FRONT WILL
REMAIN OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE BOUNDARY...SHORTWAVES MOVING
INTO THE UPPER TROUGH AND OVER THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAXIMIZED WITH GREATER
INSTABILITY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. WITHOUT A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE...BUT
SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED HYDROLOGICAL
PROBLEMS WITH TIME. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...THE CWFA WILL BE IN AN AREA BETWEEN RIDGING TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST AND NW TO SE ORIENTED NRN STREAM FLOW TO THE
NORTH. THE FLOW WILL BE CLOSE ENUF THAT WE SHUD SEE SOME EFFECT FROM
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THRU THE FLOW. AT THE SFC...A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BUT STALL TO OUR NORTH.
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL MOVE WEST ALONG THE FRONT. OVER
OUR CWFA...A LEE TROF AND COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THRU THE PERIOD. THIS SHUD LEAD TO GENERALLY SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. LOWS WILL BE NEARLY STEADY AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS START OUT NEARLY 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THEN
FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT... UPDATED 18Z TAF INCLUDES TEMPO FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... CONVECTIVE CLOUD BASES 4-5K FT. SURFACE WIND
WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY FROM SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT... BUT
STRONG AND GUSTY VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. OVERNIGHT... EXPECT CLOUD BASES
4-5K FT CONTINUING BUT LOWERING TO 2-4 KT FT.

REMAINDER TAF SITES... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING AFTERNOON WILL
PRODUCE CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. EXCEPT VARIABLE WIND AT
KAVL SOUTHWEST WIND LESS THAN 10 KT EXCEPT STRONG AND GUSTY NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL.
OVERNIGHT... EXPECT CLOUD BASES 3-5K FT WITH SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG TOWARD SUNRISE... SPECIALLY VICINITY KAVL.

OUTLOOK...AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS (MAINLY DIURNAL) CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PROBABILITIES WILL ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MTN VALLEYS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...LGL
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...LGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
411 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-210815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
411 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED AND POTENTIAL FLOODING IS A CONCERN...
ESPECIALLY IF SEVERAL STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
927 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE BOGER CITY         35.52N 81.15W
07/19/2012                   LINCOLN            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE LIMBS DOWN NEAR PUMPKIN CENTER.

&&

TW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
222 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

SCZ007-008-201915-
CHEROKEE-SPARTANBURG-
222 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN SPARTANBURG AND
NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 220 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF INMAN...OR 11 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SPARTANBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  LAKE BOWEN...
  COWPENS...
  MAYO...
  CHESNEE...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3490 8189 3504 8220 3519 8210 3518 8168

RWH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
226 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

SCZ014-201915-
CHESTER-
226 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CHESTER COUNTY THROUGH 315 PM
EDT...

AT 224 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CORNWELL...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF CHESTER...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CHESTER...
  BLACKSTOCK...
  RICHBURG...
  FISHING CREEK RESERVOIR...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3465 8089 3455 8087 3454 8095 3455 8108
      3456 8131 3473 8137 3480 8088 3470 8085

RWH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
250 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

SCZ009-201915-
YORK-
250 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN YORK COUNTY THROUGH
315 PM EDT...

AT 250 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CATAWBA...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROCK
HILL...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3482 8089 3482 8100 3482 8101 3494 8100
      3495 8086 3484 8086

HG