Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
812 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO DROP SOUTH...INTO THE
CAROLINAS EARLY SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND DISSIPATE ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...AN AREA OF SCATTERED OUTFLOW-DRIVEN CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF PULSE SEVERE WEATHER.
THE LARGER CONCERN IS THE MCS THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN NC MTN
ZONES WITHIN THE NEXT HALF HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY IS MANAGING TO HOLD
TOGETHER AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST
TENN AND SOUTHWEST VA...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL TREND IN RADAR AND
SATELLITE DATA IS DEFINITELY DECREASING. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL
NO DOUBT PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE GREAT TENN VALLEY...
WHERE A STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS IS ANALYZED...BUT IT IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE REMNANT CONVECTION WILL
PUSH INTO OUR CWA. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE A SLAM DUNK ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN MTNS...BUT WE WILL TAPER THEM OFF QUICKLY OUTSIDE OF
THAT AREA...WITH LIKELY POPS BEING CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND AREAS NORTH OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY IN THE MTNS.
BASED ON UPSTREAM BEHAVIOR OF THE MCS...AND THE OVERALL DECREASING
TREND...IT DOESN/T APPEAR THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A BIG
CONCERN...BUT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...WHILE A PAIR
OF SHORTWAVES MOVES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. POPS AND QPF WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN...AND
WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PRESENT...SOME ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT. WITH BETTER STEERING FLOW AND MOVING
STORMS...ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD BE FROM TRAINING OR
REPEATING CELLS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...AS
ENOUGH BREAK IN CLOUD COVER WILL PERMIT HEATING TO OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE TROF WITH A SERIES OF ENERGY
MAXES REMAINS OVER THE AREA FRI NITE AND SAT. SFC COLD FRONT BECOMES
STALLED ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. THE ENERGY MAXES AND RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE WHILE THE FRONT PROVIDES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
STILL EXPECT A DIURNAL TREND TO THE CONVECTION...BUT THE COPIOUS
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING SHUD KEEP AT LEAST SOME ACTIVITY
GOING MUCH OF THE NIGHT FRI NITE. NUMEROUS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
AGAIN FOR SATURDAY FOR THE SAME REASONS...AS IS THE LINGERING
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WRN MOUNTAINS
COULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT HIGHS WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MORE CLOUDS EARLIER PRECIP ONSET.

THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT A SHEAR AXIS
WILL REMAIN IN ITS PLACE. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT...BUT A
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LINGER. LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE COULD BE A
LITTLE LESS THAN SATURDAY WITH LESS UPPER SUPPORT...BUT SHUD BE AT
LEAST SCT. LOWS WILL BE A TAD COOLER...BUT HIGHS SHUD REBOUND TO
JUST BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...A WEAK TROF WILL KEEP A SPLIT OVER THE AREA
BETWEEN THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND THE BERMUDA RIDGE. AT THE
SFC...A LEE TROF AND COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCT DIURNAL TSRA AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. ON TUE AND WED...SHORT WAVES MOVING THRU THE NRN
STREAM FLOW HELP CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROF OVER THE EAST COAST. AT THE
SFC...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE LEE TROF REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TUE
WHILE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WED. AGAIN...GIVEN THE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING...GENERALLY SCT DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY WED. THE TROF MOVES OFF THE COAST THU AND RIDGING BEGINS
TO REASSERT ITSELF OVER THE SERN US AS MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES
ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. THE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES NORTH
AWAY FROM THE AREA AS WELL. STILL EXPECT ENUF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO LINGER FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS
WILL FALL A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
CONVECTION WAS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN NC MTNS AND FHILLS FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT 755 PM. THIS ACTIVITY IS DECREASING IN INTENSITY FAIRLY
QUICKLY AS IT MOVES OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND IT IS NOT CERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTHEAST IT WILL PUSH
BEFORE DISSIPATING. OUR BEST GUESS IS TO INCLUDE A VCTS AT KHKY AND
KAVL BY 02Z. WE HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR -SHRA AT KHKY BETWEEN
04 AND 06Z...AS WE EXPECT TS CELLS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST BY THEN. AT THIS
POINT...ID BE VERY SURPRISED IF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT
SOUTH OF KHKY/KAVL THIS EVENING...SO THERE WILL BE NO MENTION OF
CONVECTION AT KCLT OR THE UPSTATE TERMINALS.

OTHERWISE...THE OVERNIGHT FOG/LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. NONE OF THE TAF SITES RECEIVED MEASURABLE RAINFALL
TODAY...SO THE POTENTIAL WOULD APPEAR TO BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN
WAS SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING. NEVERTHELESS...PERSISTENCE IS TYPICALLY
A GOOD FORECAST AT KAVL THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND SINCE THEY HAVE
OBSERVED LIFR CONDITIONS THE PAST TWO MORNINGS...WE WILL FORECAST IT
AGAIN. OTHERWISE...MVFR FOG WILL BE ADVERTISED AT KAND AND KHKY.
MVFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED
TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VCTS
WILL BE CARRIED AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR A
PROB30 AT KCLT AFTER 19Z.

OUTLOOK...AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS (MAINLY DIURNAL) CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PROBABILITIES WILL ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MTN VALLEYS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...JAT/JDL
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
524 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-202130-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
524 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE EVENING.

SEVERAL OF THE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING AREAS OF WIND
DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. THE EFFECTS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
SATURATED SOILS WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT OF FALLING TREES.
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AND FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND A FEW STREAMS WILL DEVELOP. THE STORMS
WILL ALSO PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS WITH SEVERAL OF THE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE...PRODUCING AREAS
OF WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...SATURATED SOILS WILL
ENHANCE THE THREAT OF FALLING TREES. LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AND FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
A FEW STREAMS WILL DEVELOP. THE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
736 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

SCZ009-013-014-200000-
CHESTER-UNION-YORK-
736 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN UNION...SOUTHWESTERN YORK
AND WESTERN CHESTER COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM EDT...

AT 736 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MCCONNELLS TO
MONARCH MILLS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  LOWRYS...
  SANTUC...

PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND
TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3476 8169 3485 8147 3484 8146 3486 8146
      3496 8121 3470 8104 3456 8139 3456 8141
      3455 8142 3451 8153

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
756 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

NCZ033-049-050-200130-
AVERY-MITCHELL-YANCEY-
756 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AVERY...MITCHELL AND YANCEY
COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM EDT...

AT 756 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SILVERSTONE TO ROAN
MOUNTAIN TO LEESBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  BANNER ELK...
  BULADEAN...
  NEWLAND...
  LINVILLE...
  BAKERSVILLE...
  INGALLS...

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3621 8190 3619 8184 3611 8180 3607 8173
      3596 8180 3600 8190 3587 8200 3588 8200
      3581 8214 3579 8234 3582 8236 3582 8239
      3599 8249 3608 8242 3617 8222 3611 8208
      3613 8203 3628 8193 3629 8190

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
758 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

NCZ082-200030-
UNION-
758 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN UNION COUNTY
THROUGH 830 PM EDT...

AT 758 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF MINERAL SPRINGS...OR 9 MILES
NORTHEAST OF LANCASTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  MINERAL SPRINGS...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3481 8051 3481 8079 3482 8081 3485 8080
      3488 8079 3503 8060 3486 8042

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
815 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

SCZ014-200045-
CHESTER-
815 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CHESTER COUNTY THROUGH 845 PM
EDT...

AT 815 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF
RICHBURG TO CHESTER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  RICHBURG...
  FORT LAWN...
  BLACKSTOCK...
  FISHING CREEK RESERVOIR...

PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND
TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3465 8089 3455 8087 3453 8088 3456 8126
      3470 8138 3482 8105 3482 8093 3475 8087
      3470 8085

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
824 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

NCZ033-035-049-050-056-501>506-200115-
ALEXANDER-AVERY-BURKE MOUNTAINS-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-CATAWBA-EASTERN
MCDOWELL-GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-MCDOWELL
MOUNTAINS-MITCHELL-YANCEY-
824 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 930 PM...

AT 822 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HALLS MILLS TO
BLOWING ROCK TO 3 MILES WEST OF POPLAR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING 30 TO 40 MPH WIND
GUSTS...AND GUSTS IN THIS RANGE SHOULD PERSIST FROM BURNSVILLE TO
BAKERSVILLE TO NEWLAND THROUGH 9 PM...AND REACH INTO THE FOOTHILLS
FROM MARION TO MORGANTON TO TAYLORSVILLE THROUGH 930 PM. HEAVY RAIN
IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THE LINE OF STORMS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.

LAT...LON 3621 8190 3612 8181 3613 8154 3600 8132
      3605 8103 3600 8100 3576 8109 3567 8133
      3553 8217 3559 8229 3571 8228 3582 8236
      3582 8241 3599 8250 3610 8239 3614 8230
      3615 8214 3611 8212 3613 8204 3629 8192

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
855 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

NCZ048-052-053-200200-
BUNCOMBE-HAYWOOD-MADISON-
855 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BUNCOMBE...MADISON AND NORTHERN
HAYWOOD COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM EDT...

AT 854 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF
SWISS TO 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF CEDAR CREEK TO LOWLAND...MOVING SOUTH
AT 25 MPH. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN HAYWOOD AND MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 930
PM...WITH GUSTS OF 35 MPH POSSIBLY REACHING THE ASHEVILLE AREA BY 10
PM. PEA SIZE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.

LAT...LON 3604 8259 3597 8260 3598 8251 3591 8249
      3573 8228 3559 8229 3553 8217 3551 8223
      3546 8225 3550 8233 3546 8245 3551 8318
      3567 8318 3573 8324 3580 8308 3578 8299
      3595 8289 3593 8281 3601 8277 3607 8263

HG