Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SWING EAST OF THE
AREA BY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH VARYING
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WITHIN NW FLOW REGIME. THE TRAILING
PORTION OF THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE INTERACTING WITH THE MOST
UNSTABLE AIR IN THE REGION (OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY) TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED CONVECTION. AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER...MODIFYING THE 12Z GSO RAOB FOR
MID 90S OVER MID 60S DEWPOINTS IS ONLY YIELDING 1500-2000 J/KG OF
CAPE...CERTAINLY NOT AS STRONG AS WAS SEEN YESTERDAY. THEREFORE...WE
MAY NOT SEE QUITE THE NUMBER OF PULSE SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES FROM AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE IMPROVED FROM YESTERDAY...SO THERE MAY BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR
CLUSTERING OF CONVECTION ALONG OUTFLOWS. THIS ALONG WITH THE WEAK
UPPER SUPPORT ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
FROM YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC ZONES...AND THIS WILL BE
REFLECTED IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES EXISTING IN THE USUAL DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AREAS ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND IN THE NC FOOTHILLS. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...OWING TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHUD WANE BY LATE EVENING...LEAVING PLENTY OF
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS LIKELY AGAIN WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY...MDLS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE
SHORT RANGE. WEAK SHORT WAVES DROP ACROSS THE AREA THU IN NLY FLOW
BEFORE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN TO OUR NORTH ON FRI. THE RIDGE AXIS THEN
DROPS INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. EXPECT AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH SIGNIFICANT DCAPE THU. CONVECTION SHUD INITIATE OVER THE MTNS
AND SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE AFTERNOON. SVR STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE ORGANIZATION GIVEN THE LACK OF SHEAR.
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED FRI WITH THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO
BUILD IN. SCT CONVECTION WILL MAINLY OCCUR OVER THE MTNS AND SRN
TIER OF THE CWFA NEAR LEE TROF...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION IN
BETWEEN. CONVECTION EVEN MORE SUPPRESSED SAT AS RIDGE STRENGTHENS.
SCT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MTNS WITH ISOLATED ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO APPROACHING 100 OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS EACH DAY
WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S MTN VALLEYS. HEAT INDEX WILL SLOWLY
CREEP UP EACH DAY...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHUD REMAIN BELOW 105.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD SLOWLY
BREAKING DOWN AND RETROGRADING WHILE A BROAD LONG WAVE TROF BUILDS
OVER THE EAST COAST BY MON. AT THE SFC...A LEE TROF REMAINS ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT MOST LIKELY BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUE. CONVECTION REMAINS SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE
IN PLACE. THIS MEANS SCT CONVECTION MAINLY MTNS AND FOOTHILLS WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. SCT CONVECTION ALL AREAS MON AND TUE
WITH THE UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT MOVING IN. HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN SUNDAY...THEN DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL BY MON AND TUE AS H5
HEIGHTS FALL AND CLOUDINESS INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCT-BKN CIRRUS TODAY...WITH CUMULUS AND ISOLD-SCT AFTN/EVE
SHRA/TSRA ACRS THE REGION. WIND DIR FCST STILL UNCERTAIN...WITH A
SPLIT AMONG THE MODELS ON WHETHER IT WILL FAVOR NW OR SW. STILL
KEEPING IT SW UNTIL MID AFTN...WHEN OUTFLOW FROM MTN CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY SHIFT WIND TO NW. WHATEVER DIR THE WINDS END UP...THE SPEEDS
SHUD STAY LIGHT...EXCEPT IF CONVECTION IS NEARBY. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT...EXCEPT NW WIND ALL DAY AT KAVL WITH
THE BEST CHC OF BEING AFFECT BY TS THIS AFTN. GIVEN THE SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTN...KEEPING PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL
SITES. CONVECTION SHUD WANE AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL EXPECTED
EACH DAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH AREAS OF MORNING FOG/
STRATUS POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE APPROACHED AND POSSIBLY
EXCEEDED...

AVL
JULY 4TH  97 IN 1948
JULY 5TH  96 IN 1948
JULY 6TH  93 IN 1993

GSP
JULY 4TH  100 IN 1993
JULY 5TH   98 IN 1993
JULY 6TH  100 IN 1993

CLT
JULY 4TH   99 IN 1993
JULY 5TH  100 IN 1954
JULY 6TH   99 IN 1930

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JDL
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH/SBK
AVIATION...ARK
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
355 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-050800-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
355 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SLOW MOVING
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1038 AM EDT WED JUL 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             8 SE BLACK MOUNTAIN     35.53N 82.23W
07/03/2012  E1.00 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   PUBLIC

0230 PM     HAIL             8 ESE FAIRVIEW          35.48N 82.27W
07/03/2012  E1.00 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   PUBLIC

&&

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1237 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

NCZ064-041715-
TRANSYLVANIA-
1237 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY THROUGH 115
PM EDT...

AT 1237 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF BALSAM GROVE...OR 6 MILES
WEST OF BREVARD. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BREVARD...

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3524 8293 3529 8292 3532 8287 3532 8284
      3532 8283 3536 8279 3529 8261 3528 8261
      3508 8277 3522 8296

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
116 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

NCZ052-059-041800-
HAYWOOD-NORTHERN JACKSON-
116 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN JACKSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM EDT...

AT 115 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MAGGIE VALLEY...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
WAYNESVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE JUNALUSKA...
  WAYNESVILLE...
  BALSAM...

DIME SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IN ADDITION...THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL
PRODUCE RAINFALL AT RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

LAT...LON 3536 8286 3528 8315 3552 8321 3551 8318
      3557 8316 3558 8318 3559 8318 3564 8301

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
121 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

NCZ064-041800-
TRANSYLVANIA-
121 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL
TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY...

AT 119 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SERIES OF NEARLY STATIONARY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING 5 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BALSAM GROVE...OR 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF BREVARD.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRODUCING RAINFALL AT RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR...AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE IN THIS AREA
THROUGH 2 PM. ISOLATED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS MAY DEVELOP...AND
RAPID RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE EXPECTED. PREPARE TO MOVE
TO HIGHER GROUND IF HIGH WATER THREATENS YOUR LOCATION...OR IF A
FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

LAT...LON 3538 8278 3526 8271 3519 8286 3529 8292
      3532 8287 3532 8284 3532 8283 3537 8279

HG