Severe Thunderstorm Warning 317, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

256 
WWUS52 KGSP 041856
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
256 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

NCC111-161-041915-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0317.000000T0000Z-120704T1915Z/
MCDOWELL NC-RUTHERFORD NC-
256 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
RUTHERFORD AND SOUTH CENTRAL MCDOWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 255 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
WEST OF THERMAL CITY...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARION...MOVING SOUTH
AT 10 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD AND SOUTH CENTRAL MCDOWELL COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BLOW DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES OVER SMALL
AREAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SEEK SHELTER
INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3541 8194 3537 8191 3535 8192 3532 8205
      3541 8215 3540 8223 3551 8223 3553 8217
      3556 8223 3563 8224 3567 8206
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 345DEG 10KT 3552 8210

$$

HG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
152 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FOR THE
WEEKEND AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH VARYING
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM...CONVECTION HAS FIRED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS THAN WAS
EARLIER ANTICIPATED. NEVERTHELESS...CAPE VALUES WERE MODERATELY TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AS OF 17Z...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD ONLY CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE. WITH BETTER SHEAR VALUES AND THE TRAILING EDGE OF
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH STILL TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S IN THE MAJOR MTN
VALLEYS...TO MID/UPPER 90S IN THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHUD WANE BY LATE EVENING...LEAVING PLENTY OF
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS LIKELY AGAIN WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE EAST
FROM THE SPRAWLING RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST THU NIGHT THROUGH
FRI. CANNOT RULE OUT AN MCS MAKING A RUN SE FROM THE OH VALLEY FRI
MORNING...BUT THE BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR TO BE DURING THE
DIURNALLY FAVORED FRI AFTN/EVENING PERIOD. SCT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE MTNS EARLY FRI AFTERNOON AND THEN
OVER THE PIEDMONT LATER ON IN NRLY STEERING FLOW AND WITH LOW LEVEL
LEE TROUGH CONVERGENCE. THE NAM FEATURES SOME 4000 TO 5000 J/KG SFC
BASED CAPES FRI AFTN...BUT THIS APPEARS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THE NAM
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE A
LITTLE LACKLUSTER GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS...SLIGHT MID LEVEL DRYING
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE MICROBURST THREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PIEDMONT FRI AFTN/EVENING. TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.

THE GRADUALLY FLATTENING RIDGE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH DRYING IN THE PROFILES FROM THE NE...THE BEST
CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAY GET SHUNTED SW TOWARD THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER AREA...BUT WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SAT
AFTN MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO FRI AFTN VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM WEDNESDAY...NO BIG CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THE EXT
RANGE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN EVOLUTION THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE LATEST GEFS ENS ALSO
CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE SPREAD AROUND THE H5 Z MEAN. STILL
ANTICIPATE THE UPPER RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS AN EAST COAST TROF FORMS IN
RESPONSE TO -NAO BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC HIGH
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO BE REINFORCED AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BTW THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT...BUT
ONLY ABOUT 6-8 HRS BY MON NIGHT. SO...DECENT CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN
INCREASING POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE WHEN THE
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE SRN ZONES OR NRN MIDLANDS. STILL
KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE...BUT AT THE HIGH END MON AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE TSTM ACTIVITY WITH THE LLVL LIFT AND DEEPER
SHEAR DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE TROF AXIS...THUS CONTINUED BOUTS OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS WILL
BEGIN THE PERIOD A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUN...THEN LOWER A
COUPLE DEGREES FOR MON AND TUE AS THE BOUNDARY HELPS INDUCES A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IS FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AS
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
INCREASE. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...AND A TEMPO FOR TS HAS BEEN INCLUDED
AT KCLT BY 20Z...WITH VCTS AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS. A WEAK LEE TROUGH
CURRENTLY BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA...AND IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL
KEEP WINDS N OR NW AT KCLT FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT A TURN TO THE W
AND SW IS POSSIBLE AS THE POSITION OF THE LEE TROUGH FLUCTUATES.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED EACH DAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH AREAS OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE APPROACHED AND POSSIBLY
EXCEEDED...

AVL
JULY 4TH  97 IN 1948
JULY 5TH  96 IN 1948
JULY 6TH  93 IN 1993

GSP
JULY 4TH  100 IN 1993
JULY 5TH   98 IN 1993
JULY 6TH  100 IN 1993

CLT
JULY 4TH   99 IN 1993
JULY 5TH  100 IN 1954
JULY 6TH   99 IN 1930

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JDL
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH/SBK
AVIATION...JDL
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
355 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-050800-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
355 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SLOW MOVING
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
138 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

NCZ064-065-SCZ002-003-041815-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-HENDERSON-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-TRANSYLVANIA-
138 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL TRANSYLVANIA...
NORTHEASTERN PICKENS...NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE AND SOUTHERN HENDERSON
COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

AT 137 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LITTLE RIVER TO
CEDAR MOUNTAIN TO 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF TABLE ROCK RESERVOIR...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  TABLE ROCK RESERVOIR...

DIME SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AT RATES OF 1 TO
2 INCHES PER HOUR IS LIKELY AS WELL.

TRY TO MOVE INDOORS TO AVOID THE IMPACTS FROM THIS THUNDERSTORM. GET
INTO A PARKED VEHICLE UNTIL THE STORM PASSES IF YOU HAVE NO OTHER
SHELTER NEARBY.

LAT...LON 3520 8237 3504 8248 3492 8265 3509 8290
      3521 8273 3538 8263

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

NCZ070-SCZ009-041830-
GASTON-YORK-
159 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN YORK AND SOUTHERN
GASTON COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 159 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF CROWDERS...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF GASTONIA...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CLOVER...

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3495 8133 3517 8137 3517 8133 3524 8133
      3527 8117 3501 8106

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
203 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

NCZ505-506-041830-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
203 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MCDOWELL COUNTY THROUGH 230 PM
EDT...

AT 203 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF OLD FORT...OR 7 MILES WEST
OF MARION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  OLD FORT...
  MARION...
  GLENWOOD...

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE.

LAT...LON 3560 8184 3553 8194 3552 8197 3555 8200
      3553 8203 3554 8205 3553 8212 3570 8227
      3573 8220 3578 8216 3582 8210

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
220 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

NCZ065-041845-
HENDERSON-
220 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HENDERSON COUNTY THROUGH 245 PM
EDT...

AT 220 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ETOWAH...OR 6 MILES WEST OF
HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HENDERSONVILLE...
  FLAT ROCK...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3527 8235 3524 8236 3523 8235 3518 8237
      3521 8239 3516 8245 3518 8246 3515 8256
      3520 8260 3530 8262 3535 8267 3543 8254
      3542 8254 3544 8253

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
228 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

NCZ070-SCZ009-041915-
GASTON-YORK-
228 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN YORK AND SOUTHERN
GASTON COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 228 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF CROWDERS...OR 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF GASTONIA...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CLOVER...

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3498 8132 3517 8137 3517 8133 3527 8132
      3531 8118 3509 8105 3506 8106

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
233 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

NCZ505>508-041915-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD
MOUNTAINS-
233 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD AND
SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 233 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OLD FORT...OR 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MARION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  THERMAL CITY...

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3542 8185 3533 8205 3534 8208 3540 8213
      3541 8218 3552 8224 3553 8217 3556 8224
      3559 8228 3568 8209

HG