Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
224 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS LATE MONDAY AND SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE... KEEPING TROPICAL STORM
DEBBY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO STEADILY
WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 1420 EDT SUNDAY...THE EAST COAST TROUGH PERSISTS INTO
MONDAY... WITH A RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER THE PLAINS. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON...FIRST ON THE BLUE RIDGE...THEN SPREADING INTO THE
FOOTHILLS. MEANWHILE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED FIRING ALONG AND OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR OUT PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE GREATER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...AND SOME
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE... WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS RESULTING.

ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY MID EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. FOG IS
EXPECTED AGAIN IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IN A MOIST AIR MASS...AND PERHAPS
TO THE EAST WHERE RAIN FALLS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE TYPICAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE TROUGH ON MONDAY...WHILE AN
ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION. MORE SHEAR IS AVAILABLE ON
SUNDAY THAN TODAY...BUT CAPE APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE
LIMITED...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. MAXIMUMS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE DOMINATED BY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONSISTING OF AN
UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
PLAINS. THE RESULTING NNW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DRIVE A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
EVENING...SO A CHANCE POP WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO THE EVENING HOURS
UNTIL THE BOUNDARY IS SAFELY TO THE SOUTH. THE REST OF THE SHORT
RANGE IS RELATIVELY BENIGN WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND THEN SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP IT RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY. TEMPS
WILL ALSO DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AND COULD BE BELOW NORMAL IN SOME
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...BUT HAVE ELECTED NOT TO LOWER THEM
ANY MORE EVEN THOUGH THE MODEL TREND IS IN THAT DIRECTION. WILD
DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO DEBBY WILL CONTINUE
TO GIVE FORECASTERS FITS ALONG THE GULF COAST...BUT FOR NOW IT
APPEARS THAT THE AFFECT OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL BE LIMITED
TO CIRRUS OUTFLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...AN INHERENT UNCERTAINTY CLOUDS THE MEDIUM
RANGE BECAUSE OF THE DIFFICULTY WITH FORECASTING THE FATE OF
DEBBY...EVEN THOUGH IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
WILL REMAIN INSULATED FROM ANY AFFECTS FROM THE STORM. WE ARE STILL
FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT THE FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL BE DRY AS WE MAINTAIN A NNW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND CANADIAN MARITIMES AND
SOME SORT OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. AT LEAST
THAT IS OUR BEST SHOT RIGHT NOW. EVEN IF THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS
RIGHT WITH THE TROPICAL REMNANT OVER THE ARKLATEX AT 12Z
FRIDAY...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SORT OF RIDGE BETWEEN IT AND THE
NORTHEAST UPPER LOW...BASICALLY OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE CAROLINAS.
SO...THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE CUT BACK TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM HPC KEEPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED E TO W WELL
TO OUR N FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND THUS WE WOULD REMAIN S OF THE MCS
TRACK. THUS...OUR BEST BET IS A RETURN TO CLIMO DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WITH TEMPS COMING DOWN A FEW DEGREES...BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF THE
FEILD...WITH A SHOWER JUST TO THE SE. THUNDER WITH NO RESTRICTION
WILL BE CARRIED IN A TEMPO. A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SE WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE S TONIGHT AND THE SW BY MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT ON MONDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS TOO LOW TO CARRY CONVECTION WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THIS TIME
WITH BETTER FORCING AND INSTABILITY. VCTS WILL BE CARRIED AT ALL
SITES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO RESTRICTIONS.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. SE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S TONIGHT...AND SW BY DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SUPPORTIVE OF FOG...BUT NOT WITH ENOUGH
CONSENSUS IN SC. KAVL WILL FEATURE LOW END MVFR FOG BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE ACKNOWLEDGMENT THAT IT COULD BE MUCH LOWER...AS
IT WAS THE LAST TWO MORNINGS. KHKY HAS MORE SUPPORT FOR MVFR VSBY
THAN IN RECENT DAYS...BUT WITHOUT A RECENT HISTORY OF FOG...WILL
WAIT TO SE IF RAIN FALLS THERE. MORE CONVECTION WILL PRECEDE A FRONT
ON MONDAY...BUT TIMING IS QUESTIONABLE TOWARD THE END OF THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA AGAIN ON MONDAY...AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
AREA. MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MTN
VALLEYS. A CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
520 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-251000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
520 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL OF PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE...AS WELL AS
BRIEF BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GERAPETRITIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
236 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

SCZ011-019-241915-
ABBEVILLE-GREENWOOD-
236 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ABBEVILLE AND
SOUTHERN GREENWOOD COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 235 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CALLISON...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF GREENWOOD...
MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3398 8205 3398 8216 3397 8219 3401 8224
      3398 8229 3400 8232 3406 8234 3405 8242
      3406 8242 3420 8234 3410 8191 3395 8204

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
241 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

NCZ036-241930-
IREDELL-
241 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL IREDELL COUNTY THROUGH
330 PM EDT...

AT 240 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF STATESVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  STATESVILLE...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3590 8070 3583 8071 3569 8076 3565 8079
      3579 8107 3594 8099

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
320 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

NCZ071-082-242000-
MECKLENBURG-UNION-
320 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN UNION AND SOUTHERN
MECKLENBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 314 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PINEVILLE TO INDIAN
TRAIL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  FAIRVIEW...
  UNIONVILLE...
  MONROE...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE. SEEK HIGHER GROUND
IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3494 8079 3511 8094 3510 8095 3516 8101
      3517 8101 3518 8100 3519 8052 3496 8030
      3494 8030

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
332 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

NCZ036-057-242015-
IREDELL-ROWAN-
332 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL IREDELL AND NORTHWESTERN
ROWAN COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 329 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES WEST OF
STATESVILLE TO 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF CLEVELAND...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  STATESVILLE...
  TROUTMAN...
  CLEVELAND...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE. SEEK HIGHER GROUND
IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3584 8102 3583 8067 3566 8052 3569 8093

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

SCZ011-019-242015-
ABBEVILLE-GREENWOOD-
336 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN ABBEVILLE AND
NORTHWESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 329 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF ABBEVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT
10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  COKESBURY...
  DUE WEST...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3437 8249 3433 8216 3408 8226 3411 8246

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
411 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

NCZ502-504-242100-
GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-
411 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN BURKE AND SOUTHERN
CALDWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 410 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DREXEL...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MORGANTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  LAKE RHODHISS...
  VALDESE...
  RUTHERFORD COLLEGE...
  CONNELLY SPRINGS...
  ICARD...

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3572 8141 3564 8162 3581 8172 3587 8155

JOH