Severe Thunderstorm Warning 234, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

652 
WWUS52 KGSP 242221
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
621 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

NCC025-242231-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0234.000000T0000Z-120624T2230Z/
CABARRUS NC-
621 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CABARRUS COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
630 PM EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3546 8035 3527 8053 3543 8076 3551 8070
      3551 8069 3550 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 308DEG 5KT 3541 8060

$$

JOH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
505 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS LATE MONDAY AND SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE... KEEPING TROPICAL STORM
DEBBY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO STEADILY
WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 500 PM EDT SUNDAY...MAIN MOVE AT THIS POINT IN TIME WAS TO EDGE
THE POPS UP ACROSS OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA (FA) WHERE SURFACE
BASED CAPE AND DCAPE WAS MAXIMIZED...AND EDGE DOWN OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE EARLIER REASONING OF FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

AT 1420 EDT SUNDAY...THE EAST COAST TROUGH PERSISTS INTO
MONDAY... WITH A RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER THE PLAINS. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON...FIRST ON THE BLUE RIDGE...THEN SPREADING INTO THE
FOOTHILLS. MEANWHILE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED FIRING ALONG AND OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR OUT PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE GREATER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...AND SOME
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE... WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS RESULTING.

ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY MID EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. FOG IS
EXPECTED AGAIN IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IN A MOIST AIR MASS...AND PERHAPS
TO THE EAST WHERE RAIN FALLS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE TYPICAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE TROUGH ON MONDAY...WHILE AN
ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION. MORE SHEAR IS AVAILABLE ON
SUNDAY THAN TODAY...BUT CAPE APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE
LIMITED...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. MAXIMUMS TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD
WILL BE DOMINATED BY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONSISTING OF AN
UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
PLAINS. THE RESULTING NNW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DRIVE A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
EVENING...SO A CHANCE POP WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO THE EVENING HOURS
UNTIL THE BOUNDARY IS SAFELY TO THE SOUTH. THE REST OF THE SHORT
RANGE IS RELATIVELY BENIGN WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND THEN SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP IT RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY. TEMPS
WILL ALSO DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AND COULD BE BELOW NORMAL IN SOME
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...BUT HAVE ELECTED NOT TO LOWER THEM
ANY MORE EVEN THOUGH THE MODEL TREND IS IN THAT DIRECTION. WILD
DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO DEBBY WILL CONTINUE
TO GIVE FORECASTERS FITS ALONG THE GULF COAST...BUT FOR NOW IT
APPEARS THAT THE AFFECT OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL BE LIMITED
TO CIRRUS OUTFLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...AN INHERENT UNCERTAINTY CLOUDS THE MEDIUM
RANGE BECAUSE OF THE DIFFICULTY WITH FORECASTING THE FATE OF
DEBBY...EVEN THOUGH IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
WILL REMAIN INSULATED FROM ANY AFFECTS FROM THE STORM. WE ARE STILL
FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT THE FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL BE DRY AS WE MAINTAIN A NNW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND CANADIAN MARITIMES AND
SOME SORT OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. AT LEAST
THAT IS OUR BEST SHOT RIGHT NOW. EVEN IF THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS
RIGHT WITH THE TROPICAL REMNANT OVER THE ARKLATEX AT 12Z
FRIDAY...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SORT OF RIDGE BETWEEN IT AND THE
NORTHEAST UPPER LOW...BASICALLY OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE CAROLINAS.
SO...THE PRECIP CHANCES WERE CUT BACK TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM HPC KEEPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED E TO W WELL
TO OUR N FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND THUS WE WOULD REMAIN S OF THE MCS
TRACK. THUS...OUR BEST BET IS A RETURN TO CLIMO DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WITH TEMPS COMING DOWN A FEW DEGREES...BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...A COUPLE BOUTS OF CONVECTION WHICH WENT NEAR / OR OVER /
PARTS OF THE THE AIRFIELD. IT APPEARS WE WILL BE IN A LULL...
ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW APPROACHING FROM SOUTH CAROLINA (AND
MOVING NORTH) MAY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPEMENT
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD
KNOCK THINGS DOWN OR END. WE ARE INCLINED TO FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS
REASONING IN KEEPING NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THIS TIME
WITH BETTER FORCING AND INSTABILITY. VCTS WILL BE CARRIED AT ALL
SITES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO RESTRICTIONS.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. SE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S TONIGHT...AND SW BY DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SUPPORTIVE OF FOG...BUT NOT WITH ENOUGH
CONSENSUS IN SC. KAVL WILL FEATURE LOW END MVFR FOG BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE ACKNOWLEDGMENT THAT IT COULD BE MUCH LOWER...AS
IT WAS THE LAST TWO MORNINGS. KHKY HAS MORE SUPPORT FOR MVFR VSBY
THAN IN RECENT DAYS...BUT WITHOUT A RECENT HISTORY OF FOG...WILL
WAIT TO SE IF RAIN FALLS THERE. MORE CONVECTION WILL PRECEDE A FRONT
ON MONDAY...BUT TIMING IS QUESTIONABLE TOWARD THE END OF THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA AGAIN ON MONDAY...AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
AREA. MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MTN
VALLEYS. A CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...JAT/STUREY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JAT/STUREY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
520 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-251000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
520 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL OF PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE...AS WELL AS
BRIEF BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GERAPETRITIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
418 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

NCZ082-242100-
UNION-
418 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN UNION COUNTY
THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 417 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MINERAL SPRINGS...OR 8 MILES WEST OF
MONROE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE. SEEK HIGHER GROUND
IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3482 8042 3482 8079 3494 8079 3496 8050

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
441 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

SCZ009-014-242130-
CHESTER-YORK-
441 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CHESTER AND
SOUTHEASTERN YORK COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

AT 436 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF FORT MILL...OR 5 MILES EAST OF
ROCK HILL...MOVING SOUTH AT 6 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN CHESTER AND SOUTHEASTERN YORK COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3476 8087 3474 8105 3497 8102 3498 8088
      3495 8086 3484 8086 3482 8089 3477 8086

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
512 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

GAZ010-SCZ001-242200-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-RABUN-
512 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN RABUN AND NORTHERN
OCONEE COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 506 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF PINE MOUNTAIN...OR 15 MILES
NORTH OF WALHALLA...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  PINE MOUNTAIN...
  MOUNTAIN REST...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3496 8336 3500 8327 3500 8311 3502 8306
      3499 8303 3480 8317

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
517 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSW STALLINGS         35.03N 80.71W
06/24/2012                   UNION              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES BLOWN DOWN ONTO POWER LINES ALONG ANTIOCH CHURCH
            ROAD.

&&

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
523 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

NCZ069>072-242215-
CABARRUS-GASTON-LINCOLN-MECKLENBURG-
523 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN GASTON...NORTHERN
MECKLENBURG...SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHWESTERN CABARRUS COUNTIES
THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 521 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LOWESVILLE TO 4
MILES WEST OF CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY...
  HARRISBURG...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3549 8110 3541 8063 3522 8052 3530 8099

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
538 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

NCZ504-506-242230-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER BURKE-
538 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN MCDOWELL AND
SOUTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 534 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF NEBO...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST
OF MARION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  DYSARTSVILLE...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3582 8181 3564 8158 3559 8191 3573 8200
      3579 8190

JOH