Alert archive / North Carolina / Special Weather Statements in 2012

Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

April 30, 2012Mitchell County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this special weather statement at Apr 30, 2012, 6:47 PM EDT for Mitchell County, North Carolina. It was in force for 28 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 30, 2012, 6:47 PM EDT (22:47 UTC)
Expired: Apr 30, 2012, 7:15 PM EDT
In force: 28 min
Issued by: NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

County Mitchell County, NC

The radar

The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 110 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 206 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 39 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -148 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 441 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 143 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 243 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Apr 30, 2:10 PM EDT, 4 hours 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 30, 2:10 PM EDT, 4 hours 37 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
210 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONTROL THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEK. SMALL AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PROVIDE
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MORE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT LATE IN THE DAY.  A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM... 12Z NAM...LOCAL WRF AND THE 12Z GFS INDICATE THAT
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN THE
19Z-21Z TIMEFRAME...WITH CONVECTION THEN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NC
FOOTHILLS INTO THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THEN IS
FORECAST ESSENTIALLY THROUGH THE LEE TROUGH AROUND 00Z WITH STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN UPSTATE INTO NE GA. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
THEN WANE BY 06Z OR SO. CURRENT POP FIELD LOOKS GOOD IN REGARD TO
THIS SCENARIO.

SBCAPES ALREADY HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 1500-2000J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS SUFFICIENT CIN TO CAP CONVECTIVE
INITIATION UNTIL ABOUT 20Z IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH BULK
SHEAR AROUND 30KT...THIS MY BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS AND ALLOW
CONVECTION TO SPREAD OUT OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALSO...DCAPE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IS AROUND 1000J...SO A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LARGE HIAL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THW STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY 06Z...SO
IT SHOULD BE QUIET LATE TONIGHT WITH JUST DOME DEBRIS CLOUDIENSS AND
PATCHY FOG. SOME STRATUS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA AROUND SUNRISE.

ON TUE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO BEGIN CROPPING UP IN THE MOUNTAINS
TUE MORNING WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND AN APPROACHING VORT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD MOVE OUT INTO NE GA AND THE
SC FOOHILLS/PIEDMONT LATE IN THE DAY. CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE ORDER OF 1500J/KG SO CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS OVER WESTERN NC WHERE WIND SHEAR IS THE GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM MONDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH VERY WARM LLVL
THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS BETWEEN 16C TO 18C. USING A BLEND OF MOS
GUIDANCE...FORECAST LOW TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE L50S
ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS TO L60S EAST...OR AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FOR KGSP...KCLT...AND KAVL:

KGSP

MAY 2ND  90F IN 1959 FORECAST 90F
MAY 3RD  91F IN 1959 FORECAST 90F

KCLT

MAY 2ND  91F IN 1959 FORECAST 88F
MAY 3RD  94F IN 1902 FORECAST 91F

KAVL

MAY 2ND  88F IN 1935 FORECAST 85F
MAY 3RD  85F IN 1965 FORECAST 86F

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM DAY
TO DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FEATURE A WEAK INVERSION AROUND H8 WITH
CIN VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 30 TO 60 J/KG. WIND FIELDS SHOULD RESULT
IN ONLY WEAK SHEAR...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. THE STORM MODE SHOULD
REMAIN AS PULSE STORMS. GIVEN THE LINGERING INVERSION...LACK OF A
TRIGGER...AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL FAVOR SCHC POPS EAST OF THE
MTNS...WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CHANGEABLE.  MOST RECENT HPC WORD SAYS BLENDING ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES ARE THE BEST WAY TO GO.  WHEN COMPARING THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND ECMWF START THE MEDIUM RANGE IN A MODERATE 500MB RIDGE
THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH SHOW THURSDAY EVENING CONVECTION FROM THE
VIRGINIAS TO EASTERN NC. THIS TREND DIMINISHES FOR LATE FRIDAY AS
THE RIDGE FLATTENS.  GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...THESE TWO MODELS
DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS.  THE RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE SE ON THE ECMWF
FOR SATURDAY WHILE RIDGE RETROGRADES TO TEXAS ON THE GFS WITH TROF
FORMING OVER EAST. THE LATEST 12Z GFS BRINGS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR AREA EARLY SUNDAY WHILE THE PREVIOUS RUN WAITED UNTIL LATE
MONDAY.  THE MOST RECENT ECMWF HAD A WEAK FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. OF COURSE...WITH THIS BEING A WEEK AWAY WE WILL HAVE
SLIGHT POPS IN FORECAST THROUGH THE GENERAL TIME UNTIL WE CAN NAIL
DOWN A MORE DEFINITE TIME FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN QUESTION EARLY ON FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS WHETHER
ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELD. SOUNDINGS ARE CERTAINLY
STRONGLY CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO APPARENT
TRIGGER AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ENOUGH INHIBITION TO LIMIT
CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NMOUNTAINS...BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD. THE OTHER QUESTION IS
STRATUS. LOOKS LIKE STRATUS WILL AGAIN MAKE A RUN AT THE AIRFIELD
FROM THE SE EARLY ON TUE...BUT CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL
COME UP JUST SHORT...ALBEIT IT WILL BE VERY CLOSEBY. FOR NOW WILL
JUST INDICATE MVFR CONDITON RESTRICTED FY FOG.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TO THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
RIDGETOPS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FIRST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER
21Z AND GRADUALLY MOVE THEM EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS/NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. HENCE...WILL HAVE A TEMPO
-TSRA AT KHKY. LOOKS LIKE SHEAR WILL BE ENOGH FOR A FEW STORMS TO
MAKE IT INTO THE SC PIEDMONT...SO VCTS IS CARRIED AT KGSP/GMU.
EXPECT MVFR RETRICTIONS DUE TO MAINLY FOG EARLY TUE...EXCEPT LIFR
AGAIN AT KHKY.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION EXPECTED THRU MIDWEEK. MORNING FOG AND/OR STRATUS
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW ACRS
THE REGION.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...LG

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 30, 5:53 AM EDT, 12 hours 54 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
553 AM EDT MON APR 30 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-011000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
553 AM EDT MON APR 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE AND MOVE EAST
OFF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THE STORMS
MAY GROW LARGE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

MOORE

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Apr 30, 4:47 PM EDT, 2 hours before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
447 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012

NCZ050-302115-
MITCHELL-
447 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MITCHELL COUNTY THROUGH
515 PM EDT...

AT 442 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF LIMESTONE COVE...OR 8 MILES EAST
OF ERWIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  BULADEAN...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3615 8218 3615 8215 3615 8214 3612 8213
      3605 8229 3612 8234 3613 8233 3614 8230
      3614 8225 3617 8222 3617 8220

LANE

Local storm report, Apr 30, 6:26 PM EDT, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
626 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             5 E BULADEAN            36.10N 82.10W
04/30/2012  E1.00 INCH       MITCHELL           NC   PUBLIC

            HAIL DENTED CARS...BROKE SKY LIGHTS AND DAMAGED ROOFS IN
            THE VALLEY OF ROAN COMMUNITY. HAIL FELL FOR 20 MINUTES.

&&

MCAVOY

Special weather statement, Apr 30, 6:47 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
647 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012

NCZ049-050-302315-
MITCHELL-YANCEY-
647 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MITCHELL AND CENTRAL
YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

AT 642 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF BURNSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BAKERSVILLE...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3611 8211 3593 8204 3591 8233 3598 8237

LANE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 30, 4:47 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Mitchell	28 min
Apr 30, 5:07 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Avery, Mitchell	53 min
Apr 30, 5:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Avery, Mitchell	61 min
Apr 30, 6:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Mitchell	15 min
Apr 30, 7:06 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Avery, Caldwell	54 min
Apr 30, 7:25 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	GSP	Avery	2 hr
Apr 30, 7:46 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Mitchell	29 min
Apr 30, 7:50 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Buncombe	55 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in North Carolina, 2012 Every special weather statement in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.