Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

015 
WWUS52 KGSP 302239
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
639 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012

NCC121-302248-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0140.000000T0000Z-120430T2300Z/
MITCHELL NC-
639 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MITCHELL COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THIS AREA.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST 
CENTRAL MITCHELL COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM.

LAT...LON 3615 8218 3615 8215 3612 8213 3611 8210
      3610 8213 3606 8212 3605 8229 3613 8232
      3614 8225 3617 8222 3617 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 258DEG 23KT 3614 8209

$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
210 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONTROL THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEK. SMALL AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PROVIDE
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MORE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT LATE IN THE DAY.  A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM... 12Z NAM...LOCAL WRF AND THE 12Z GFS INDICATE THAT
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN THE
19Z-21Z TIMEFRAME...WITH CONVECTION THEN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NC
FOOTHILLS INTO THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THEN IS
FORECAST ESSENTIALLY THROUGH THE LEE TROUGH AROUND 00Z WITH STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN UPSTATE INTO NE GA. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
THEN WANE BY 06Z OR SO. CURRENT POP FIELD LOOKS GOOD IN REGARD TO
THIS SCENARIO.

SBCAPES ALREADY HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 1500-2000J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS SUFFICIENT CIN TO CAP CONVECTIVE
INITIATION UNTIL ABOUT 20Z IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH BULK
SHEAR AROUND 30KT...THIS MY BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS AND ALLOW
CONVECTION TO SPREAD OUT OVER THE FOOTHILLS. ALSO...DCAPE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IS AROUND 1000J...SO A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LARGE HIAL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THW STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY 06Z...SO
IT SHOULD BE QUIET LATE TONIGHT WITH JUST DOME DEBRIS CLOUDIENSS AND
PATCHY FOG. SOME STRATUS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA AROUND SUNRISE.

ON TUE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO BEGIN CROPPING UP IN THE MOUNTAINS
TUE MORNING WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND AN APPROACHING VORT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD MOVE OUT INTO NE GA AND THE
SC FOOHILLS/PIEDMONT LATE IN THE DAY. CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE ORDER OF 1500J/KG SO CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS OVER WESTERN NC WHERE WIND SHEAR IS THE GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM MONDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH VERY WARM LLVL
THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS BETWEEN 16C TO 18C. USING A BLEND OF MOS
GUIDANCE...FORECAST LOW TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE L50S
ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS TO L60S EAST...OR AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FOR KGSP...KCLT...AND KAVL:

KGSP

MAY 2ND  90F IN 1959 FORECAST 90F
MAY 3RD  91F IN 1959 FORECAST 90F

KCLT

MAY 2ND  91F IN 1959 FORECAST 88F
MAY 3RD  94F IN 1902 FORECAST 91F

KAVL

MAY 2ND  88F IN 1935 FORECAST 85F
MAY 3RD  85F IN 1965 FORECAST 86F

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM DAY
TO DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FEATURE A WEAK INVERSION AROUND H8 WITH
CIN VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 30 TO 60 J/KG. WIND FIELDS SHOULD RESULT
IN ONLY WEAK SHEAR...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. THE STORM MODE SHOULD
REMAIN AS PULSE STORMS. GIVEN THE LINGERING INVERSION...LACK OF A
TRIGGER...AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL FAVOR SCHC POPS EAST OF THE
MTNS...WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE RIDGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CHANGEABLE.  MOST RECENT HPC WORD SAYS BLENDING ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES ARE THE BEST WAY TO GO.  WHEN COMPARING THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND ECMWF START THE MEDIUM RANGE IN A MODERATE 500MB RIDGE
THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH SHOW THURSDAY EVENING CONVECTION FROM THE
VIRGINIAS TO EASTERN NC. THIS TREND DIMINISHES FOR LATE FRIDAY AS
THE RIDGE FLATTENS.  GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...THESE TWO MODELS
DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS.  THE RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE SE ON THE ECMWF
FOR SATURDAY WHILE RIDGE RETROGRADES TO TEXAS ON THE GFS WITH TROF
FORMING OVER EAST. THE LATEST 12Z GFS BRINGS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR AREA EARLY SUNDAY WHILE THE PREVIOUS RUN WAITED UNTIL LATE
MONDAY.  THE MOST RECENT ECMWF HAD A WEAK FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. OF COURSE...WITH THIS BEING A WEEK AWAY WE WILL HAVE
SLIGHT POPS IN FORECAST THROUGH THE GENERAL TIME UNTIL WE CAN NAIL
DOWN A MORE DEFINITE TIME FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN QUESTION EARLY ON FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS WHETHER
ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELD. SOUNDINGS ARE CERTAINLY
STRONGLY CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO APPARENT
TRIGGER AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ENOUGH INHIBITION TO LIMIT
CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NMOUNTAINS...BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD. THE OTHER QUESTION IS
STRATUS. LOOKS LIKE STRATUS WILL AGAIN MAKE A RUN AT THE AIRFIELD
FROM THE SE EARLY ON TUE...BUT CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL
COME UP JUST SHORT...ALBEIT IT WILL BE VERY CLOSEBY. FOR NOW WILL
JUST INDICATE MVFR CONDITON RESTRICTED FY FOG.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TO THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
RIDGETOPS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FIRST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER
21Z AND GRADUALLY MOVE THEM EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS/NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. HENCE...WILL HAVE A TEMPO
-TSRA AT KHKY. LOOKS LIKE SHEAR WILL BE ENOGH FOR A FEW STORMS TO
MAKE IT INTO THE SC PIEDMONT...SO VCTS IS CARRIED AT KGSP/GMU.
EXPECT MVFR RETRICTIONS DUE TO MAINLY FOG EARLY TUE...EXCEPT LIFR
AGAIN AT KHKY.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION EXPECTED THRU MIDWEEK. MORNING FOG AND/OR STRATUS
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW ACRS
THE REGION.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
553 AM EDT MON APR 30 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-011000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
553 AM EDT MON APR 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE AND MOVE EAST
OFF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THE STORMS
MAY GROW LARGE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
447 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012

NCZ050-302115-
MITCHELL-
447 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MITCHELL COUNTY THROUGH
515 PM EDT...

AT 442 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF LIMESTONE COVE...OR 8 MILES EAST
OF ERWIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  BULADEAN...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3615 8218 3615 8215 3615 8214 3612 8213
      3605 8229 3612 8234 3613 8233 3614 8230
      3614 8225 3617 8222 3617 8220

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