Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
256 AM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RIDGE
THAT BUILDS IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK FORCING AROUND THE
FORWARD EDGE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THIS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AS IT GETS SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST BY THE MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW. HAVE RAISED PRECIP CHANCES SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA TO ACCOUNT
FOR IT...AND HAVE ALSO REINTRODUCED THUNDER CHANCES BASED ON
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT NW OF CHARLOTTE. TEMPS LOOK OKAY BUT
DEWPOINTS WERE TWEAKED BASED ON CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT.

THE UPPER LOW WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL
FINALLY SPIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AND REACH THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THE LOW MOVES EAST...PROBABLY BY
MIDDAY...WEAK DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE E OF THE MTNS WILL TAKE OVER.
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP KEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AND ERN PIEDMONT OF SC THROUGH THE DAY...
FINALLY TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. THE NC MTNS WILL GET SOME
ADDITIONAL FORCING BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF NW FLOW UPSLOPE ON THE TN
BORDER. THINK THE GUIDANCE HAS THE RIGHT TREND SO PRECIP CHANCES
HAVE BEEN RAISED IN THESE AREAS. THE WRN UPSTATE AND NE GEORGIA HAVE
A RELATIVELY POOR CHANCE FOR ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY AS THE BACKING
FLOW WILL KEEP THEM DOWNSLOPE FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY AS THE
UPPER LOW DEPARTS. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES OVER
THE NC FOOTHILLS AND WRN PIEDMONT ACCORDINGLY. THE PRECIP CHC MAY
LINGER ALONG THE TN BORDER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY...
BUT SHOULD END LONG BEFORE SUNRISE. MIN TEMPS WERE NUDGED TOWARD A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM SUNDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON MONDAY
WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED H5 LOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AND UPPER RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. UPPER
RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE FCST AREA THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL GET FLATTENED TO SOME DEGREE AS A WELL DEFINED
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD
EARLY WED.

ON MONDAY...A CANADIAN SFC HIGH WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH AS THE DEPARTING SFC LOW MOVES FARTHER UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE AND
HELP STABILIZE THE BNDY LAYER. ON TUESDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES
FARTHER SE AND IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE VICINITY OF THE
CAROLINA COAST BY WED MORNING. LOW LVL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
AROUND FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY BY EARLY
WED AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. I HAVE NO SIG PRECIP CHANCES
THRU THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH POPS BEGINNING TO RAMP UP WED AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AND THEN DROP A
COUPLE OF CATEGORIES ON TUES AS THE CAD TYPE PATTERN WORKS ITS WAY
INTO THE CWFA. ON TUES...HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S OVER THE
UPSTATE AND PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER 60S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 4 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LATE MARCH. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND ON WED AS THE CAD DISSIPATES
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SE
CONUS AND A WELL DEFINED UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
ABSORBED INTO A MUCH BROADER LONGWAVE TROF AS IT MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WEAK...UPPER RIDGING
WILL SLOWLY PUSH BACK IN OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST AS THE BROAD
UPPER TROF LINGERS JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AT THE SFC...THE
CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE CENTERED SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CAROLINA COAST WHILE A SFC LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
LAY A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE CWFA BY EARLY THURSDAY. MORE CANADIAN
SFC RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA AFTER THE FROPA
AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE.

TEMPS WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WED AND THURS AND THEN
DROP A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES AFTER THE FROPA BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AS LONG AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS
MAY KEEP A LOW CLOUD CEILING IN THE VICINITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. SATELLITE/OBS TRENDS SAY THE MVFR CEILING WILL REMAIN ON THE
E SIDE OF THE METRO AREA SO THE TAF WAS KEPT OPTIMISTIC WITH ONLY
SCT CLOUDS BELOW 030. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO
N AND NW THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD AND A WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEPARTS TO THE E. CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD COME RIGHT BACK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE...UPPER
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OUT WITH THE LOW IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...KHKY WILL HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 07Z OR SO. AT
KAVL...A NW WIND SHOULD PUSH SOME CLOUDS UP THE FR BROAD VALLEY
WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN MVFR CEILING FOR SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH MID
MORNING. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH SOME HEATING DURING MIDDAY.
OTHERWISE...A VFR FCST.

OUTLOOK...SOME RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY MORNING...BUT THIS IS NOT LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY
BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RESTRICTIONS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...PM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
245 AM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012

NCZ036-056-069-250730-
CATAWBA-IREDELL-LINCOLN-
245 AM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN LINCOLN...SOUTHEASTERN
CATAWBA AND SOUTHERN IREDELL COUNTIES THROUGH 330 AM EDT...

AT 242 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TERRELL...OR 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEWTON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN LINCOLN...SOUTHEASTERN CATAWBA AND SOUTHERN IREDELL
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

LAKE NORMAN...DENVER...TERRELL AND TROUTMAN...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. BOATERS ON LAKE
NORMAN SHOULD GET OFF THE LAKE AND FIND SHELTER ON SHORE IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

LAT...LON 3565 8076 3551 8091 3549 8095 3548 8095
      3546 8096 3542 8103 3558 8112 3586 8103

MOORE

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