Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 AM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS OUR REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND MOVE OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY EVENING.  DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND LINGER
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM
THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK FORCING AROUND THE
FORWARD EDGE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THIS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AS IT GETS SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST BY THE MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW. HAVE RAISED PRECIP CHANCES SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA TO ACCOUNT
FOR IT...AND HAVE ALSO REINTRODUCED THUNDER CHANCES BASED ON
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT NW OF CHARLOTTE. TEMPS LOOK OKAY BUT
DEWPOINTS WERE TWEAKED BASED ON CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROF ON THE FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA
SUN WITH SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED...MAINLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. NW
FLOW MOISTURE INTO THE NC MTNS WILL KEEP CHC POPS ALONG THE TN
BORDER THRU THE AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVG THRU
THE PERIOD SO NO SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND MID ATLANTIC MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PUSH THRU THE CWFA MONDAY EVE. WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SUN NGT AND MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN COOLER...YET STILL
ABV NORMAL TEMPS IN ITS WAKE WITH A SURGE OF NELY LLVL FLOW. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM...AND WITH LIMITED TIME TODAY TO DO
GRIDS...I WENT WITH HPCGUIDE.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THRU THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND WED-THU...FLATTENING THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC...BRINGING A
RETURN FLOW ACRS THE CWFA. MEANWHILE...A CLIPPER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS
BY 12Z THU. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH ANOTHER DRY BACKDOOR FRONT THRU
THE AREA THU. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO MID-UPR 70S WED AND UPR 70S
TO LWR 80S THU AHEAD OF THE FRONT (COOLER IN HIGH TERRAIN). TEMPS
COOL 2-3 CATEGORIES BEHIND THE FRONT FRI AND SAT. AS FOR POPS...HAVE
SLGT CHC FOR THE NC ZONES WED AFTN/EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN
LOW-END CHC POPS SAT WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AS LONG AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS
MAY KEEP A LOW CLOUD CEILING IN THE VICINITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. SATELLITE/OBS TRENDS SAY THE MVFR CEILING WILL REMAIN ON THE
E SIDE OF THE METRO AREA SO THE TAF WAS KEPT OPTIMISTIC WITH ONLY
SCT CLOUDS BELOW 030. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO
N AND NW THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD AND A WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEPARTS TO THE E. CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD COME RIGHT BACK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE...UPPER
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OUT WITH THE LOW IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...KHKY WILL HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 07Z OR SO. AT
KAVL...A NW WIND SHOULD PUSH SOME CLOUDS UP THE FR BROAD VALLEY
WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN MVFR CEILING FOR SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH MID
MORNING. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH SOME HEATING DURING MIDDAY.
OTHERWISE...A VFR FCST.

OUTLOOK...SOME RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY MORNING...BUT THIS IS NOT LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY
BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RESTRICTIONS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...PM/RB
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
819 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-260030-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
819 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE
NIGHT OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SMALL HAIL AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001>014-019-260030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
819 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
911 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S SHARON              34.91N 81.34W
03/24/2012                   YORK               SC   UTILITY COMPANY

            YORK ELECTRIC COMPANY SAYS TREES BROUGHT DOWN POWERLINES
            ON BURRIS ROAD SOUTH OF SHARON.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1035 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             4 N SALISBURY           35.72N 80.48W
03/24/2012  E0.75 INCH       ROWAN              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

&&

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
245 AM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012

NCZ036-056-069-250730-
CATAWBA-IREDELL-LINCOLN-
245 AM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN LINCOLN...SOUTHEASTERN
CATAWBA AND SOUTHERN IREDELL COUNTIES THROUGH 330 AM EDT...

AT 242 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TERRELL...OR 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEWTON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN LINCOLN...SOUTHEASTERN CATAWBA AND SOUTHERN IREDELL
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

LAKE NORMAN...DENVER...TERRELL AND TROUTMAN...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. BOATERS ON LAKE
NORMAN SHOULD GET OFF THE LAKE AND FIND SHELTER ON SHORE IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

LAT...LON 3565 8076 3551 8091 3549 8095 3548 8095
      3546 8096 3542 8103 3558 8112 3586 8103

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