Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
526 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ON
SUNDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 5 PM EDT...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING MCS OVER THE UPSTATE AND WRN NC FOOTHILLS...AND DECREASE
POPS BEHIND IT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY MOVE BACK INTO
NE GA AND THE WRN UPSTATE IN A CPL HOURS...BUT POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW
UNTIL THE STORMS START TO SHOW SOME ORGANIZATION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOC SHORTWAVE TROFS CONTINUE MOVG E TOWARD THE
REGION WHILE MOIST S LL FLOW INCREASES OVER THE AREA. SHWRS AND
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVE...TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...THEN REDEVELOPING SAT AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS E ACROSS THE CWA ON THE WAY TO THE CAROLINA COAST.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME CAPE AND SHEAR THRU THIS EVE BUT SVR THREAT
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK SHEAR. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES IN SAT SHEAR/CAPE INCREASE...AND WITH A LITTLE DRY
AIR IN THE MID LVLS THERE WILL BE A HIGHER THREAT OF DAMAGING
WIND/HAIL...MAINLY SAT AFTN-EVE. SPC HAS THE SE CWA IN AN AREA FOR
SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVG THRU SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG LEE TROF/COLD
FRONT ACRS THE FTHLS/PIEDMONT SAT AFTN SHUD BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
AREA SAT EVE. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE BEHIND THAT
BATCH OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SUN MRNG. AS THE LOW PASSES...ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHWRS SHUD CROSS THE AREA. INSTBY WILL BE ELEV AND
WEAK. SO LTL IN WAY OF THUNDER CHCS EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS STILL ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE 40S MTNS AND LWR-MID 50S PIEDMONT.

SUNDAY...HEIGHT RISES IN WAKE OF UPPER LOW AND STRENGTHENING NWLY
LLVL SHUD PUT END TO PRECIP...SAVE FOR TN BORDER WHERE UPSLOPE WILL
CONTINUE. TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES
QUICKLY REBOUND BEHIND THE LOW AND ALSO DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE MTNS
(HIGHS IN THE 60S MTNS AND LWR-MID 70S PIEDMONT).

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACRS THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS...WHILE A TROF DIGS OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES.
THIS AMPLIFYING FLOW WILL ALLOW A STRONG CP AIR MASS TO PUSH INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE CWFA FROM THE NORTH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE 850
MB TEMPS STILL IN THE 10-12C RANGE WITH DOWNSLOPE NNWLY FLOW. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY PUSH IN MON AFTN...BUT FOR NOW EXPECTING IT TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. SO I AM FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR
70S EAST OF THE MTNS (EXCEPT LWR 70S MTN VALLEYS AND 60S HIGH
TERRAIN).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE LATEST EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES PUSHING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
INDICATE THAT THE LOWER PIEDMONT AREA WILL STAY MOSTLY DRY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WEAKENS AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY.
HOWEVER..DECENT LLVL NW FLOW LIFTING ALONG WITH WEAK DIURNAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS MAY SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
HENCE...I MENTIONED 20-30 POPS THERE WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND SE CANADA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION FOR MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION DEVELOPING/MOVG IN LATER
THIS AFTN WITH A CHC OF TSTMS BY 20Z. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED
TO HEAVIER SHWRS THAT MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE FIELD. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS LATER THIS EVE TO LOWER TO IFR AFT 08Z. FOG WILL LIKELY BE
A PROBLEM FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK. CHC OF TSTMS
AGAIN SAT...ESP AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT WITH EARLIER TIMING ON ONSET OF
CONVECTION. EXPECT LIFR/VLIFR AROUND DAYBREAK AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE SAT EVE AND SUN AS AN
UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT IFR
RESTRICTIONS SUN MRNG AND WITH HEAVIER SHWRS AND TSTMS. DRYING IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
501 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ007>009-
012>014-019-242115-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
501 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND EASTERN UPSTATE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-
505-507-509-SCZ001>006-010-011-242115-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
501 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY THIS EVENING.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIOD.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
551 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

NCZ056-068>070-504-232215-
CATAWBA-CLEVELAND-GASTON-GREATER BURKE-LINCOLN-
551 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CLEVELAND...NORTHWESTERN
GASTON...SOUTHEASTERN BURKE...SOUTHWESTERN CATAWBA AND WESTERN
LINCOLN COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 544 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTH OF
CASAR TO LAWNDALE TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF BOILING SPRINGS NC...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  SHELBY...
  VALE...

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3571 8145 3549 8131 3525 8140 3517 8163
      3517 8165 3518 8167 3534 8162 3562 8170

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
615 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

NCZ035-056-069-070-502-504-232300-
ALEXANDER-CATAWBA-GASTON-GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-LINCOLN-
615 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CATAWBA...EASTERN BURKE...
LINCOLN...NORTHWESTERN GASTON...SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL AND
SOUTHWESTERN ALEXANDER COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

AT 608 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CONNELLY SPRINGS TO
4 MILES SOUTH OF VALE TO 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF KINGS MOUNTAIN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  GRANITE FALLS...
  LINCOLNTON...
  LAKE HICKORY...
  NEWTON...
  IRON STATION...
  CLAREMONT...

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3564 8104 3544 8105 3534 8137 3539 8143
      3545 8143 3578 8160 3593 8122

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
620 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

NCZ501-502-232245-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
620 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CALDWELL COUNTY THROUGH
645 PM EDT...

AT 616 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PATTERSON...OR 5 MILES NORTH OF LENOIR...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  KINGS CREEK...

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3610 8151 3610 8148 3608 8142 3603 8134
      3587 8149 3597 8168 3613 8157 3613 8155

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
631 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

NCZ068-070-SCZ008-009-013-232315-
CHEROKEE-CLEVELAND-GASTON-UNION-YORK-
631 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GASTON...EASTERN
CHEROKEE...NORTHEASTERN UNION...SOUTHEASTERN CLEVELAND AND WESTERN
YORK COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

AT 625 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES EAST OF
GROVER TO HICKORY GROVE TO LOCKHART...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  KINGS MOUNTAIN...
  BESSEMER CITY...
  CLOVER...
  GASTONIA...
  YORK...

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND BRIEF PERIODS OF SMALL HAIL ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3499 8113 3482 8140 3482 8147 3481 8148
      3479 8146 3478 8146 3469 8159 3494 8147
      3522 8146 3541 8105 3524 8101

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
659 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

NCZ035-036-056-232345-
ALEXANDER-CATAWBA-IREDELL-
659 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALEXANDER...EASTERN CATAWBA AND
IREDELL COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

AT 652 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ELLENDALE TO 5 MILES
NORTHWEST OF TERRELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  TAYLORSVILLE...
  STONY POINT...
  TROUTMAN...
  STATESVILLE...
  HARMONY...

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3606 8094 3606 8070 3604 8069 3588 8071
      3577 8073 3567 8077 3557 8104 3594 8133
      3607 8096

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
721 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

NCZ036-069>071-240000-
GASTON-IREDELL-LINCOLN-MECKLENBURG-
721 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN LINCOLN...NORTHEASTERN
GASTON...NORTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG AND SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL COUNTIES
THROUGH 800 PM EDT...

AT 717 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES WEST OF
DENVER TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOUNTAIN ISLAND LAKE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  MOUNTAIN ISLAND LAKE...
  LAKE NORMAN...
  HUNTERSVILLE...
  CORNELIUS...
  DAVIDSON...
  MOORESVILLE...

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3550 8079 3545 8077 3522 8101 3552 8116
      3556 8106 3555 8097 3558 8095 3559 8093
      3561 8094 3568 8077 3551 8074

LANE