Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
249 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ON
SUNDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOC SHORTWAVE TROFS CONTINUE MOVG E TOWARD THE
REGION WHILE MOIST S LL FLOW INCREASES OVER THE AREA. SHWRS AND
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVE...TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...THEN REDEVELOPING SAT AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS E ACROSS THE CWA ON THE WAY TO THE CAROLINA COAST.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME CAPE AND SHEAR THRU THIS EVE BUT SVR THREAT
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK SHEAR. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES IN SAT SHEAR/CAPE INCREASE...AND WITH A LITTLE DRY
AIR IN THE MID LVLS THERE WILL BE A HIGHER THREAT OF DAMAGING
WIND/HAIL...MAINLY SAT AFTN-EVE. SPC HAS THE SE CWA IN AN AREA FOR
SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVG THRU SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG LEE TROF/COLD
FRONT ACRS THE FTHLS/PIEDMONT SAT AFTN SHUD BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
AREA SAT EVE. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE BEHIND THAT
BATCH OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SUN MRNG. AS THE LOW PASSES...ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHWRS SHUD CROSS THE AREA. INSTBY WILL BE ELEV AND
WEAK. SO LTL IN WAY OF THUNDER CHCS EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS STILL ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE 40S MTNS AND LWR-MID 50S PIEDMONT.

SUNDAY...HEIGHT RISES IN WAKE OF UPPER LOW AND STRENGTHENING NWLY
LLVL SHUD PUT END TO PRECIP...SAVE FOR TN BORDER WHERE UPSLOPE WILL
CONTINUE. TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES
QUICKLY REBOUND BEHIND THE LOW AND ALSO DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE MTNS
(HIGHS IN THE 60S MTNS AND LWR-MID 70S PIEDMONT).

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACRS THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS...WHILE A TROF DIGS OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES.
THIS AMPLIFYING FLOW WILL ALLOW A STRONG CP AIR MASS TO PUSH INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE CWFA FROM THE NORTH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE 850
MB TEMPS STILL IN THE 10-12C RANGE WITH DOWNSLOPE NNWLY FLOW. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY PUSH IN MON AFTN...BUT FOR NOW EXPECTING IT TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. SO I AM FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR
70S EAST OF THE MTNS (EXCEPT LWR 70S MTN VALLEYS AND 60S HIGH
TERRAIN).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE LATEST EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES PUSHING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION DEVELOPING/MOVG IN LATER
THIS AFTN WITH A CHC OF TSTMS BY 20Z. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED
TO HEAVIER SHWRS THAT MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE FIELD. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS LATER THIS EVE TO LOWER TO IFR AFT 08Z. FOG WILL LIKELY BE
A PROBLEM FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK. CHC OF TSTMS
AGAIN SAT...ESP AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT WITH EARLIER TIMING ON ONSET OF
CONVECTION. EXPECT LIFR/VLIFR AROUND DAYBREAK AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE SAT EVE AND SUN AS AN
UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT IFR
RESTRICTIONS SUN MRNG AND WITH HEAVIER SHWRS AND TSTMS. DRYING IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
547 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-241000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
547 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING AS A CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIOD.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
230 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

GAZ028-SCZ004-010-231915-
ANDERSON-GREATER OCONEE-HART-
230 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN HART...SOUTHEASTERN
OCONEE AND WESTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 228 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF FAIR PLAY...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST
OF HARTWELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  REED CREEK...
  FAIR PLAY...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3433 8296 3439 8310 3443 8309 3449 8305
      3452 8308 3473 8300 3466 8284 3464 8283
      3465 8281 3462 8273

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
308 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

SCZ006-010-231945-
ANDERSON-GREATER GREENVILLE-
308 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GREENVILLE AND
NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 303 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR POWDERSVILLE...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  WHITE HORSE ROAD AT I-85...
  DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE...
  CHERRYDALE POINT...
  HAYWOOD MALL...

MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3469 8249 3476 8257 3479 8256 3483 8248
      3483 8249 3489 8249 3497 8244 3484 8223

LANE