Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
720 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTH RESULTING IN WINTRY WEATHER OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY AND LINGER INTO NEXT MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
0020 UTC UPDATE...POPS WERE LOWERED PER RADAR TRENDS FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE EAST..EXCEPT IN THE HART COUNTY AREA OF NE GA.

A WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...AT 19Z
LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN SC UPSTATE...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION TODAY...MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE WARM FRONT
ADVANCES...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING VERY MILD AND MOIST AIR ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA
AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SOUTH OF THE WARM FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE
THAT SFC BASED CAPES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000/1500 J/KG WITH
EFFECTIVE HELICITY RANGING FROM 200 TO 300 M2/S2. HOWEVER...CIN
VALUES REMAIN IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY
YIELDING ONLY LIGHT COVERAGE EAST OF THE MTNS UNDER BROAD MID LEVEL
RIDGING. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ANY CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS THAT DEVELOP UPSTREAM OF THE CWA...MUCH LIKE THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN NC. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY STEADILY
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHARP
COLD FRONT. THE HELICITY VALUES INCREASE TO 300 TO 500 M2/S2 ACROSS
NE GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...BUT CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH AND BECOME INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG THE FRONT.
BASED ON THE OVERLAP OF HIGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IT APPEARS THAT
BANDS OF SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN TN AND NRN GA AND TRACK
NE INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA THIS EVENING. 4 KM WRF DOES
SHOW A COUPLE OF THE CELLS REMAINING DISCRETE ALONG WITH BANDS OF
TSRA AROUND 2Z. FROPA BETWEEN 3Z TO 12Z...SHOULD SUPPORT LINEAR TSRA
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE AND
POSSIBLY TORNADIC TSRAS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN NC
MTNS...NE GA...AND THE UPSTATE SC COUNTIES. THE
THREAT...TIMING...AND STORM MODE IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A SPS AND HWO. I
WILL TIME CATE POPS WITH SVR TSRA IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FAVORED
AREAS.

SATURDAY...HIGH RES WRF INDICATES THAT CONVECTION WILL MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS EAST AFTER SUNRISE...WITH DRYING ACROSS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS. POPS WILL STEADILY BECOME LIMITED TO THE PIEDMONT AREAS
AROUND MID DAY...WITH DRY IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL REMAIN CHALLENGING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
WARM AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON SUNDAY
WITH THE DEEP UPPER TROF JUST TO OUR WEST. THE TROF WILL LIFT NE
THRU THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND A SECOND LOBE OF PVA WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS UPPER RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST TO OUR SE BY 00Z
SUNDAY WITH W TO NWLY FLOW SPREADING OVER THE REGION IN ITS WAKE.
THE MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME SORT OF SFC MESO LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY SUN AND QUICKLY MOVE NE AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION LATER IN THE DAY. ANOTHER WEAK SFC LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF MOIST AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWFA
EARLY MONDAY. A STRONG SFC RIDGE WILL FINALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING AND DRY THINGS OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON TUESDAY
WITH THE SHARP UPPER TROF MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SE CONUS. THE LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE
THAT SOME DEGREE OF UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE GFS CONTINUES TO MOVE ANOTHER UPPER
TROF TO OUR DOORSTEP BY EARLY THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH THE TROFS PROGRESSION.

AT THE SFC...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FCST AREA
BY EARLY TUESDAY. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE
SE CONUS. THE MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME SORT OF ELONGATED LOW LVL
CONVERGENCE ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE MODELS HAVE THIS FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHING THE CWFA BY LATE THURS
WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING ABOUT 12HRS FASTER THEN THE ECMWF. AS FOR THE
SENSIBLE FCST...I DO NOT HAVE ANY SIG POPS UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION
OF THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. I HAVE TEMPS STEADILY
RISING THRU THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 DEGREES BY DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW VFR CIG WILL FALL TO MVFR OVERNIGHT IN GUSTY MOIST SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPORARY LIFR NEAR DAWN.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FORM THE
W. WINDS VEER TO NW WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER DAWN...THEN LOW VFR
CIG RETURNS BY LATE MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION WILL MOVE BETWEEN KGSP AND KAVL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. CIGS FALL TO MVFR BY LATE EVENING...IF NOT
SOONER. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPORARY LIFR CIGS AT KGSP AND KGMU.
FRONTAL PASSAGE VEERS WINDS TO NW AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH LOW VFR CIG
RETURNING BY MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
332 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-
SCZ001>014-019-032045-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
332 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...TORNADO WATCH 61 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THERE IS
A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
THREATS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
HIGHEST OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-032045-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
332 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THERE IS
A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
THREATS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
HIGHEST OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
425 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

GAZ018-026-SCZ001-004-022200-
FRANKLIN-GREATER OCONEE-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-STEPHENS-
425 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...SOUTHERN
OCONEE AND STEPHENS COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EST...

AT 425 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR EASTANOLEE...OR 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
TOCCOA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE HARTWELL...
  WESTMINSTER...
  SENECA...

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3459 8338 3483 8290 3479 8288 3474 8290
      3473 8286 3470 8287 3465 8283 3464 8283
      3463 8285 3462 8284 3462 8287 3460 8286
      3443 8328

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
700 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

NCZ048-051-052-030100-
HAYWOOD-MADISON-SWAIN-
700 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MAY PASS JUST WEST OF THE STATE LINE FROM
SWAIN TO HAYWOOD TO MADISON COUNTIES BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM EST...

AT 656 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE AND POSSIBLY TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM OVER BLOUNT COUNTY IN
EASTERN TENNESSEE...NEAR HAPPY VALLEY...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF
MARYVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS MAINLY WEST OF STATE LINE...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE A WARNING COULD
BE NEEDED FOR HAYWOOD OR MADISON COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT HOUR. EVEN
IF IT STAYS WEST OF THE STATE LINE...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE NORTH CAROLINA SIDE.

LAT...LON 3557 8377 3557 8349 3567 8334 3566 8330
      3573 8324 3573 8319 3577 8315 3580 8308
      3578 8299 3584 8292 3594 8290 3596 8287
      3593 8281 3599 8279 3601 8274 3601 8273
      3574 8265 3573 8267 3547 8371 3552 8388

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
735 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

NCZ058-059-062-063-030200-
GRAHAM-MACON-NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
735 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...

AT 730 PM...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE. THIS THUNDERSTORM WAS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CHEROKEE COUNTY AND PARTS OF CLAY COUNTY. IF
THIS STORM HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL REACH MACON COUNTY AROUND 8
PM...AND THE AREA AROUND NANTAHALA LAKE CLOSER TO 815 PM. THE AREA
FROM FRANKLIN TO OTTO MIGHT NOT BE AFFECTED UNTIL 845 PM.

PEOPLE IN MACON...SOUTHERN JACKSON AND SOUTHWESTERN GRAHAM
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

NANTAHALA LAKE AND FRANKLIN...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

IF THE STORM HOLDS TOGETHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR PART OF
THE AREA AROUND 8 PM. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

LAT...LON 3530 8346 3531 8345 3536 8301 3525 8292
      3500 8311 3500 8353 3503 8354 3515 8366
      3516 8374 3521 8373 3523 8370 3525 8371
      3524 8378 3525 8384 3521 8396 3525 8401