Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
933 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTH RESULTING IN WINTRY WEATHER OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY AND LINGER INTO NEXT MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
0230 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS
CONVETION RACES EAST.

AT 2100 EST FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER THE MD
RIVER VALLEY...WITH A LARGE 90 KNOT JET MAX EXISTING ITS BASE.
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS
TO NEAR KCLT...WITH A SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THESE
TWO FRONTS DEW POINT IN THE UPPER 50S WERE COMMON. ALTHOUGH SURFACE
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED IN SOME AREAS...AN EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL JET
EXISTS FRONT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER...WITH WIND
HAIL AND TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE...AND THE TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND ALL OF UPSTATE SC
AND NE GA THROUGH 11 PM. THE THREAT OF CONVECTION CONTINUES AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
AROUND DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...HIGH RES WRF INDICATES THAT CONVECTION WILL MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS EAST AFTER SUNRISE...WITH DRYING ACROSS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS. POPS WILL STEADILY BECOME LIMITED TO THE PIEDMONT AREAS
AROUND MID DAY...WITH DRY IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL REMAIN CHALLENGING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
WARM AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON SUNDAY
WITH THE DEEP UPPER TROF JUST TO OUR WEST. THE TROF WILL LIFT NE
THRU THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND A SECOND LOBE OF PVA WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS UPPER RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

ON SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST TO OUR SE BY 00Z
SUNDAY WITH W TO NWLY FLOW SPREADING OVER THE REGION IN ITS WAKE.
THE MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME SORT OF SFC MESO LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY SUN AND QUICKLY MOVE NE AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION LATER IN THE DAY. ANOTHER WEAK SFC LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF MOIST AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWFA
EARLY MONDAY. A STRONG SFC RIDGE WILL FINALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING AND DRY THINGS OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON TUESDAY
WITH THE SHARP UPPER TROF MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SE CONUS. THE LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE
THAT SOME DEGREE OF UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THRU
MOST OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THE GFS CONTINUES TO MOVE ANOTHER UPPER
TROF TO OUR DOORSTEP BY EARLY THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH THE TROFS PROGRESSION.

AT THE SFC...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FCST AREA
BY EARLY TUESDAY. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW OVER THE
SE CONUS. THE MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME SORT OF ELONGATED LOW LVL
CONVERGENCE ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE MODELS HAVE THIS FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHING THE CWFA BY LATE THURS
WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING ABOUT 12HRS FASTER THEN THE ECMWF. AS FOR THE
SENSIBLE FCST...I DO NOT HAVE ANY SIG POPS UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION
OF THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. I HAVE TEMPS STEADILY
RISING THRU THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 DEGREES BY DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW VFR CIG WILL FALL TO MVFR OVERNIGHT IN GUSTY MOIST SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPORARY LIFR NEAR DAWN.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FORM THE
W. WINDS VEER TO NW WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER DAWN...THEN LOW VFR
CIG RETURNS BY LATE MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION WILL MOVE BETWEEN KGSP AND KAVL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. CIGS FALL TO MVFR BY LATE EVENING...IF NOT
SOONER. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPORARY LIFR CIGS AT KGSP AND KGMU.
FRONTAL PASSAGE VEERS WINDS TO NW AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH LOW VFR CIG
RETURNING BY MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
332 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-
SCZ001>014-019-032045-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
332 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...TORNADO WATCH 61 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THERE IS
A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
THREATS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
HIGHEST OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-032045-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
332 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THERE IS
A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
THREATS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
HIGHEST OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
936 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     HAIL             BURNSVILLE              35.92N 82.30W
03/02/2012  E0.75 INCH       YANCEY             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN BURNSVILLE BY COMMUNICATIONS
            CENTER.

0830 PM     HAIL             NANTAHALA LAKE          35.19N 83.65W
03/02/2012  E1.75 INCH       MACON              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AS STORM CROSSED.

0850 PM     HAIL             1 N FRANKLIN            35.20N 83.38W
03/02/2012  E1.75 INCH       MACON              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL FELL IN OR NEAR FRANKLIN AS STORM
            PASSED. GOT A REPORT FROM A TRAVELER PASSING THROUGH
            ABOUT A MILE NORTH OF DOWNTOWN FRANKLIN OF VERY STRONG
            WIND THAT BLEW THE CAR BACKWARD SITTING AT A STOP LIGHT.

0837 PM     HAIL             3 NE MARS HILL          35.86N 82.51W
03/02/2012  E1.00 INCH       MADISON            NC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL LASTED A FEW MINUTES NEAR YANCEY
            COUNTY BORDER NOT FAR FROM MARS HILL.

&&

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
947 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-030400-
ELBERT-FRANKLIN-HABERSHAM-HART-STEPHENS-
947 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 1030 AND 11 PM THIS EVENING...

SEVERE TO TORNADIC THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS GWINNETT AND FORSYTH COUNTIES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH AND WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME
IMPACT ON THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN HABERSHAM COUNTY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
STEPHENS...FRANKLIN...HART...AND ELBERT COUNTIES THROUGH 1130 PM
THIS EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WARNINGS COULD BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF
THIS AREA SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT HOUR. KEEP ABREAST OF THE VERY
LATEST WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR
OF YOUR HOME IN THE MOST INTERIOR LOCATION.

LAT...LON 3400 8293 3417 8311 3423 8308 3426 8313
      3423 8317 3426 8331 3422 8335 3426 8334
      3432 8340 3446 8340 3449 8354 3443 8362
      3450 8367 3454 8362 3458 8364 3473 8341
      3450 8307 3444 8290 3415 8272 3398 8257

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
955 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     TSTM WND DMG     12 SSE SYLVA            35.21N 83.14W
03/02/2012                   JACKSON            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG PINE CREEK ROAD. ONE TREE THAT FELL ON A
            BRAND NEW CAR. DEBRIS IN THE ROAD NEAR PINE CREEK ROAD
            AND CULLOWHEE ROAD.

0905 PM     HAIL             12 SSE SYLVA            35.21N 83.14W
03/02/2012  E1.75 INCH       JACKSON            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL JACKSON
            COUNTY AS STORM PASSED.

&&

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1015 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

GAZ026-028-SCZ004-010-030345-
ANDERSON-FRANKLIN-GREATER OCONEE-HART-
1015 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT FRANKLIN...NORTHERN HART...
SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE AND WESTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM
EST...

AT 1015 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTH OF CARNESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 60 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CANON...
  LAVONIA...
  FAIR PLAY...

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3438 8336 3448 8319 3448 8318 3451 8314
      3467 8285 3448 8265 3424 8323

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1019 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1016 PM     HAIL             3 SW CARNESVILLE        34.34N 83.27W
03/02/2012  E0.25 INCH       FRANKLIN           GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1021 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

GAZ026-028-SCZ004-030345-
FRANKLIN-GREATER OCONEE-HART-
1021 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT FRANKLIN...NORTHERN HART AND
SOUTHERN OCONEE COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM EST...

AT 1021 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MAYSVILLE...OR 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF
COMMERCE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CARNESVILLE...
  CANON...

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3426 8334 3432 8340 3439 8339 3457 8299
      3451 8296 3448 8299 3449 8294 3436 8287
      3424 8323 3426 8331 3422 8335

HG