Severe Thunderstorm Warning 438, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

028 
WWUS52 KGSP 182246
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
646 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

NCC025-159-182330-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0438.000000T0000Z-120718T2330Z/
CABARRUS NC-ROWAN NC-
646 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
ROWAN AND CABARRUS COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 645 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CONCORD...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  MOUNT PLEASANT.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM THE EAST SIDE OF CONCORD TO 
NEAR MOUNT PLEASANT THROUGH 730 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL CAN CAUSE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO VEHICLES.
DAMAGING WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3527 8045 3527 8067 3535 8069 3540 8077
      3541 8077 3542 8075 3545 8077 3551 8066
      3559 8036 3546 8031
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 259DEG 12KT 3537 8057

$$

HG

523 
WWUS52 KGSP 182309
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
709 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

NCC025-159-182330-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0438.000000T0000Z-120718T2330Z/
CABARRUS NC-ROWAN NC-
709 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
ROWAN AND EASTERN CABARRUS COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 709 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 
60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CONCORD...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  MOUNT PLEASANT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DAMAGING WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES. SEEK 
SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3527 8045 3528 8057 3533 8059 3536 8061
      3538 8060 3541 8062 3550 8063 3559 8036
      3546 8031
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 259DEG 12KT 3538 8052

$$

HG

864 
WWUS52 KGSP 182319
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
719 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

NCC025-159-182328-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0438.000000T0000Z-120718T2330Z/
CABARRUS NC-ROWAN NC-
719 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ROWAN AND
EASTERN CABARRUS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LEVELS. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS 
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN EDGE OF CABARRUS AND ROWAN 
COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM.

LAT...LON 3527 8045 3528 8057 3533 8059 3536 8061
      3538 8060 3541 8062 3550 8063 3559 8036
      3546 8031
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 259DEG 12KT 3539 8048

$$

HG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
438 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO DROP
SOUTH...INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND DISSIPATE
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 430 PM...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE (50-70 POP) IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...AS OUTFLOWS FROM MTN CONVECTION...AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH
2500-3500 J/KG OF SB-CAPE. WEAK SHEAR AND MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS OF
DOWNDRAFT CAPE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR GOOD MICROBURST POTENTIAL
FROM THE STRONGER STORMS (ESP IN THE PIEDMONT)...WITH BRIEF LARGE
HAIL ALSO BEING POSSIBLE. WILL ATTEMPT TO CAPTURE HOURLY TEMP TRENDS
IN THE WAKE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHICH
SHOULD COOL TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES.

IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE DO THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH ON
THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT GREATER POPS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO GET GOING EARLIER THAN USUAL IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE BY MIDDAY. ONCE AGAIN... MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND LIGHT STEERING
CURRENTS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FORM THE NORTH WILL STILL BE IN VA...TOO FAR AWAY TO
HAVE AN IMPACT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL AS TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AND FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT
TAKE PLACE LATER IN THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE
WILL DRIVE THE HEAT INDEX TO NEAR 100 AGAIN ON THURSDAY IN THE
PIEDMONT...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT CONVECTION THU NITE TO BE MAINLY
DIURNAL...BUT ISOLATED CELLS COULD LINGER IN THE MTNS OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

A SHORT WAVE DIVES INTO THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS WAVE SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD
THE VA TIDEWATER AND MID-ATLANTIC AREA. THE SFC FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COPIOUS AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT. QG FORCING WILL BE WEAK...BUT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE DECENT...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET. THEREFORE...EXPECT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH NUMEROUS COVERAGE I-85 AND
SOUTH AND GOOD CHC NORTH SATURDAY. CONVECTION WILL STILL SHOW A
DIURNAL TREND...BUT WILL NOT DIMINISH UNTIL LATE AT NITE. WITH A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND SLOW MOVING STORMS...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

HIGHS FRIDAY STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...THEN DROPS BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NITE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. THE FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT MONDAY AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH POKES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
HOWEVER...A SHEAR AXIS AND A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA MONDAY IN THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND THE
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE RIDGE AND THE BERMUDA HIGH
MERGE TUESDAY AS A TROF MOVES OFF SHORE OF NEW ENGLAND...BUT THE
DEEP MOISTURE AND A LEE TROF REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE SERN US. THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE IS PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY...BUT
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER OUR AREA...AS ANOTHER TROF DROPS FROM CANADA
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS HELPS PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA DURING THE DAY.

ALTHOUGH A GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION AGAIN ON SUNDAY...GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON BETTER CHANCES FOR ONE AREA OR ANOTHER. THEREFORE...HAVE
GONE WITH CHC POP FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DIURNAL CHC POP MON
THRU WED WITH THE MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING IN PLACE. ABOVE NORMAL
LOWS AND BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN SUNDAY...THEN THE HEAT BUILDS WITH
THE RIDGE. HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID 90S BY WED WITH LOW TO MID 70S
EACH MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. BASED THE
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT...CONFIDENCE IS A LOWER FOR A
RESTRICTION...AND NONE WILL BE CARRIED AT THIS TIME. TS WITH A LOW
VFR CIG WILL BE CARRIED. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL PERSIST. A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT DAYBREAK FOG ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY MORNING AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FORM THE NORTH...CHANCES ARE STILL TOO LOW MENTION A
RESTRICTION.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS. A TEMPO FOR THUNDERSTORM BASED MVFR
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL...WHILE FOOTHILLS SITES GET TS
AND A LOW VFR CIG WITH CB. LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW TO
WSW...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL CHANNEL UP THE VALLEY FORM THE
NW. AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE PLACES FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SW OF
KAVL. BASED ON THE TRENDS FROM THIS MORNING...FOG WILL BE CARRIED AT
KAVL AND KAND AS WELL. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASE ON THURSDAY
AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
CARRY A RESTRICTION.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE LATE
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...REMAINING INTO THE WEEKEND...AND
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF THUNDER...LOW CIGS...AND FOG.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...JAT/JDL
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
407 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-192015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
407 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE SMALL AREAS OF WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS. LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS AND FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS MAY DEVELOP.
MANY OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING.

THE EFFECTS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SATURATED SOILS WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT OF FALLING TREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
550 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

SCZ012-013-182215-
LAURENS-UNION-
550 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LAURENS AND SOUTHERN UNION
COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 550 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SEDALIA TO 3 MILES NORTH OF WATERLOO...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  JOANNA...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3430 8209 3453 8215 3461 8192 3458 8187
      3464 8184 3475 8157 3449 8147 3444 8154
      3451 8160 3452 8164 3444 8173 3436 8178
      3427 8206

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
552 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSE UNION             34.65N 81.58W
07/18/2012                   UNION              SC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN AT 600 BLOCK OF BERRY FARM RD

&&

RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
604 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW CLOVER            35.13N 81.28W
07/18/2012                   YORK               SC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 55 AND HENRY KNOB RD

&&

RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
610 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW GASTONIA           35.22N 81.20W
07/18/2012                   GASTON             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON QUEENS RD AT YORK HIGHWAY

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E GASTONIA            35.24N 81.10W
07/18/2012                   GASTON             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON CRAMERTON RD NEAR LOWELL-BETHESDA RD

&&

RWH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
610 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

GAZ028-SCZ004>007-010>012-182300-
ABBEVILLE-ANDERSON-GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER
PICKENS-HART-LAURENS-SPARTANBURG-
610 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR THROUGH 7 PM EDT...

AT 608 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
TOWNVILLE TO 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF BELTON TO 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ENOREE. THESE STORMS WERE NEARLY STATIONARY.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLOODING...WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH...AND PEA SIZE
HAIL. A FEW TREES COULD BE BLOWN DOWN IN AREAS WHERE THE SOIL HAS
BECOME VERY MOIST FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

HARDEST HIT WILL BE LOCATIONS FROM TOWNVILLE TO WILLIAMSTON TO FORK
SHOALS TO ENOREE...AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LAT...LON 3467 8305 3475 8252 3483 8198 3471 8182
      3453 8189 3438 8241 3442 8297

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
623 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE TOCCOA            34.61N 83.30W
07/18/2012                   STEPHENS           GA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON PRATHER BRIDGE RD

&&

RWH