Severe Thunderstorm Warning 429, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

054 
WWUS52 KGSP 181955
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
355 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

NCC003-023-027-035-182045-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0429.000000T0000Z-120718T2045Z/
ALEXANDER NC-CATAWBA NC-CALDWELL NC-BURKE NC-
355 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL
BURKE...SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL...WESTERN CATAWBA AND SOUTHWESTERN
ALEXANDER COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 355 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CONNELLY SPRINGS...OR 8 MILES WEST OF HICKORY...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  GRANITE FALLS.
  LONGVIEW.
  HICKORY AND LAKE HICKORY.
  BETHLEHEM.
  ST. STEPHENS.
  CONOVER AND NEWTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL CAN CAUSE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO VEHICLES.
DAMAGING WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3567 8158 3586 8149 3587 8135 3583 8115
      3556 8124 3556 8133 3561 8152
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 285DEG 11KT 3576 8145

$$

HG

623 
WWUS52 KGSP 182015
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
415 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

NCC003-023-027-035-182025-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0429.000000T0000Z-120718T2045Z/
ALEXANDER NC-CATAWBA NC-CALDWELL NC-BURKE NC-
415 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL BURKE...
SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL...WESTERN CATAWBA AND SOUTHWESTERN ALEXANDER
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

AT 415 PM...THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED BELOW 
SEVERE LEVELS.

LAT...LON 3567 8158 3586 8149 3587 8135 3583 8115
      3556 8124 3556 8133 3561 8152
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 285DEG 11KT 3574 8138

$$

HG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
255 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO DROP
SOUTH...INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND DISSIPATE
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER GA WILL LIFT NORTH
AND FILL OVER SC TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHILE A TROUGH TO THE NORTH
AMPLIFIES. CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
HEATING ABATES. MODELS SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF GUSTY WINDS A ND
HAIL...WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN A MOIST AIR
MASS.

IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE DO THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH ON
THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT GREATER POPS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO GET GOING EARLIER THAN USUAL IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE BY MIDDAY. ONCE AGAIN... MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND LIGHT STEERING
CURRENTS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FORM THE NORTH WILL STILL BE IN VA...TOO FAR AWAY TO
HAVE AN IMPACT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL AS TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AND FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT
TAKE PLACE LATER IN THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE
WILL DRIVE THE HEAT INDEX TO NEAR 100 AGAIN ON THURSDAY IN THE
PIEDMONT...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECT CONVECTION THU NITE TO BE MAINLY
DIURNAL...BUT ISOLATED CELLS COULD LINGER IN THE MTNS OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

A SHORT WAVE DIVES INTO THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THIS WAVE SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD
THE VA TIDEWATER AND MID-ATLANTIC AREA. THE SFC FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE COPIOUS AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT. QG FORCING WILL BE WEAK...BUT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE DECENT...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET. THEREFORE...EXPECT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...WITH NUMEROUS COVERAGE I-85 AND
SOUTH AND GOOD CHC NORTH SATURDAY. CONVECTION WILL STILL SHOW A
DIURNAL TREND...BUT WILL NOT DIMINISH UNTIL LATE AT NITE. WITH A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND SLOW MOVING STORMS...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

HIGHS FRIDAY STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...THEN DROPS BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NITE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. THE FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT MONDAY AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH POKES BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
HOWEVER...A SHEAR AXIS AND A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA MONDAY IN THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND THE
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE RIDGE AND THE BERMUDA HIGH
MERGE TUESDAY AS A TROF MOVES OFF SHORE OF NEW ENGLAND...BUT THE
DEEP MOISTURE AND A LEE TROF REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE SERN US. THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE IS PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY...BUT
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER OUR AREA...AS ANOTHER TROF DROPS FROM CANADA
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS HELPS PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA DURING THE DAY.

ALTHOUGH A GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION AGAIN ON SUNDAY...GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON BETTER CHANCES FOR ONE AREA OR ANOTHER. THEREFORE...HAVE
GONE WITH CHC POP FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DIURNAL CHC POP MON
THRU WED WITH THE MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING IN PLACE. ABOVE NORMAL
LOWS AND BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN SUNDAY...THEN THE HEAT BUILDS WITH
THE RIDGE. HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID 90S BY WED WITH LOW TO MID 70S
EACH MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. BASED THE
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT...CONFIDENCE IS A LOWER FOR A
RESTRICTION...AND NONE WILL BE CARRIED AT THIS TIME. TS WITH A LOW
VFR CIG WILL BE CARRIED. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL PERSIST. A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT DAYBREAK FOG ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY MORNING AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FORM THE NORTH...CHANCES ARE STILL TOO LOW MENTION A
RESTRICTION.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS. A TEMPO FOR THUNDERSTORM BASED MVFR
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL...WHILE FOOTHILLS SITES GET TS
AND A LOW VFR CIG WITH CB. LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW TO
WSW...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY WILL CHANNEL UP THE VALLEY FORM THE
NW. AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE PLACES FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SW OF
KAVL. BASED ON THE TRENDS FROM THIS MORNING...FOG WILL BE CARRIED AT
KAVL AND KAND AS WELL. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASE ON THURSDAY
AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
CARRY A RESTRICTION.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE LATE
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...REMAINING INTO THE WEEKEND...AND
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF THUNDER...LOW CIGS...AND FOG.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
533 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-190945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
533 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE REGION AGAIN TODAY. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
SMALL AREAS OF WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS AND FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS MAY DEVELOP. MANY OF
THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE EFFECTS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SATURATED SOILS WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT OF TREES FALLING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
304 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

NCZ064-181930-
TRANSYLVANIA-
304 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY
THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 304 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF BREVARD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3530 8262 3519 8260 3514 8258 3514 8261
      3512 8263 3513 8265 3512 8266 3513 8268
      3510 8269 3510 8270 3525 8283 3535 8268

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
312 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

SCZ007-182000-
SPARTANBURG-
312 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SPARTANBURG COUNTY
THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 312 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROEBUCK...OR 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SPARTANBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  ROEBUCK...
  PACOLET...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3484 8216 3501 8202 3489 8173 3483 8179
      3468 8182 3463 8184

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
315 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

NCZ505>508-181945-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD
MOUNTAINS-
315 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD AND
SOUTHERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 316 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF SUGAR HILL...OR 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MARION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  GLENWOOD...
  THERMAL CITY...

DIME SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3542 8183 3541 8218 3552 8221 3553 8217
      3555 8222 3564 8224 3571 8204

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
324 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

NCZ065-SCZ003-182000-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-HENDERSON-
324 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN GREENVILLE AND SOUTHERN
HENDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 324 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TUXEDO...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF
HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  NORTH SALUDA RESERVOIR...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3526 8235 3524 8236 3523 8235 3519 8235
      3519 8232 3520 8227 3519 8224 3508 8251
      3519 8260 3522 8260 3534 8247

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
330 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

NCZ035-036-182015-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
330 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ALEXANDER AND WESTERN IREDELL
COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 330 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF TAYLORSVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  TAYLORSVILLE...
  STONY POINT...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3592 8083 3571 8100 3579 8113 3583 8115
      3582 8118 3593 8134 3596 8134 3603 8128
      3604 8121 3604 8112

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

NCZ064-SCZ002-003-182000-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-TRANSYLVANIA-
336 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN PICKENS...NORTHWESTERN
GREENVILLE AND SOUTHERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 336 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF TABLE ROCK RESERVOIR...OR 11
MILES SOUTH OF BREVARD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  TABLE ROCK RESERVOIR...

A SECOND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS MOVING FROM CEDAR MOUNTAIN TOWARD
CAESARS HEAD.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH BOTH OF THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3509 8289 3521 8272 3514 8258 3507 8249
      3490 8272

HG