Severe Thunderstorm Warning 413, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

711 
WWUS52 KGSP 170049
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
849 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

SCC001-170059-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0413.000000T0000Z-120717T0100Z/
ABBEVILLE SC-
849 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ABBEVILLE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THIS AREA.

LAT...LON 3396 8205 3398 8205 3397 8219 3403 8220
      3403 8199 3397 8199 3395 8202
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 005DEG 15KT 3393 8222

$$

SCC047-170100-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0413.000000T0000Z-120717T0100Z/
GREENWOOD SC-
849 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
GREENWOOD COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

AT 846 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MCCORMICK...OR 17 MILES SOUTH OF GREENWOOD...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL GREENWOOD COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BLOW DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES OVER SMALL
AREAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SEEK SHELTER
INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3396 8205 3398 8205 3397 8219 3403 8220
      3403 8199 3397 8199 3395 8202
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 005DEG 15KT 3393 8222

$$

RB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
528 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH
MID-WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY AND LINGERS INTO
SATURDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH BY SUNDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 5PM EDT...ROBUST CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER SEVERAL PARTS
OF THE CWFA WITH NUMEROUS SVR TS WARNINGS ISSUED. TS OUTFLOWS
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER NEW STORMS AND WITH THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION...MOST OF THE CELLS ARE ABLE TO GROW
TALL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN CANADA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY....BUT THE MEAN TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH WILL LOSE
AMPLITUDE. MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF NE FL WILL
MOVE WEST AND INLAND. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER IMPULSE DIVES INTO THE EAST COAST TROUGH...
LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE RETROGRADING FL SYSTEM MAY
HAVE SUFFICIENT REACH BY TUESDAY TO STEER UPPER IMPULSES WEST ACROSS
GA AND THE CAROLINAS INTO THE BLUE RIDGE...PERHAPS CAUSING
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 145 PM EDT...WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SE STATES IN THE SHORT TERM AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER FLORIDA MEANDERS
GENERALLY WESTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH LEE TROUGHING EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE...PLAN VIEW
CAPES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 2000J/KG OVER MANY PIEDMONT AREAS BOTH
WED AND THU AFTERNOONS WITH WELL OVER 1000J/KG ELESWHERE. THIS SET
UP FAVORS RATHER TYPICAL JULY WEATHER WITH DIURNALLY ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND THEN MOSTLY
DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS
IDEA AS CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL CIN IS INDICATED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE BETTER THU AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA AND UPPER HEIGHTS SLOWLY
FALL. WILL FOLLOW THE POP TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HOWEVER...DOWNSCALED NAM POPS LOOK REASONABLE SO BLENDED THEM INTO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO GIVE A LITTLE MORE DETAIL. SEVERE THREAT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE AS
PROFILES REMAIN RATHER MOIST AND WIND FIELDS WEAK. ISOLD HYDRO
PROBLEMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT DUE TO WEAK STREERING FLOW. TEMP
VERIFICATION DATA OF LATE INDICATES THAT THE BIAS CORRECTED GMOS AND
ADJMAV ARE PERFORMING THE BEST...SO USED A BLEND OF THOSE GUIDANCE
SOURCES FOR TEMPS. THIS YIELDS MAX TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE AVE
BOTH WED AND THU. MIN TEMPS ALSO ARE FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE THURSDAY....AND SLOWLY SLIPS
SOUTH INTO THE NC/SC LINE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERY DEEP MOIST LAYER WITH PW VALUES
OVER 2 INCHES DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DYNAMIC LIFTING WILL PROVIDE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON LATE FRIDAY AS OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK. HENCE...POPS HAVE BEEN
ACCORDINGLY RAISED INTO THE 60S OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA FRI AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING.

THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DROP FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER
MIDLANDS SAT AND BECOMES STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SO WE WILL SEE DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND POPS HAVE BEEN
LOWERED ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION IN NW NC IS AIMING AT THE INTERSTATE 77
CORRIDOR. ON ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY...IT PASS TO THE EAST OF
KCLT...SO FOR NO JUST DRY THUNDER WILL BE CARRIED WITH NO
RESTRICTION. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUPPORT A LOW VFR CIG THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF MVFR FOG AT
DAYBREAK...BUT UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON FOG...NONE WILL BE
CARRIED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PRECIPITATION COULD GET GOING EARLY
TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LOW DIRECTS IMPULSES ACROSS WESTERN NC FROM
THE EAST. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...A DRY FORECAST WILL BE FEATURED AT
THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE WSW UNTIL
DAYBREAK...THEN WILL VEER TO WNW.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE NW SHOULD PASS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO KHKY TO AT LEAST CARRY TS AND CB THIS AFTERNOON....BUT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL PASS WELL EAST OF THE OTHER SITES. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED THAT THEY WILL CAUSE RESTRICTIONS AT TAF
SITES...SO FOR NOW THUNDER WITH LOW VFR CB WILL BE CARRIED.
GUIDANCE IS BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF FOG TOWARD DAWN...BUT CONDITIONS
WERE GENERALLY GOOD THIS MORNING...AND ONLY THE MOST LIKELY SPOT...
KAVL...WILL HAVE MVFR FOG IN THE TAF. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DIRECTS IMPULSES WEST
INTO THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ACCEPT THIS
SCENARIO JUST YET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAND
WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIGHT ENE WINDS AFTER DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST
CHANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDER...CLOUD
COVER...AND FOG OVER SATURATED SOIL.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...JPT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
324 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-171930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
324 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING WHICH MEANS SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED FLOODING.
ALSO...A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. IN ADDITION...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
717 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

SCZ006-162345-
GREATER GREENVILLE-
717 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GREENVILLE COUNTY
THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

AT 713 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PARIS MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...OR 6 MILES NORTH
OF DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CHERRYDALE POINT...
  DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE...
  HAYWOOD MALL...
  SHOPS AT GREENRIDGE...
  MAULDIN...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3476 8246 3477 8245 3482 8248 3483 8248
      3484 8249 3488 8249 3492 8252 3497 8253
      3502 8239 3502 8234 3476 8216 3468 8243

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
726 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

SCZ011-019-170000-
ABBEVILLE-GREENWOOD-
726 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN ABBEVILLE AND
NORTHWESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM EDT...

AT 725 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF HODGES...OR 12 MILES
NORTHEAST OF ABBEVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  COKESBURY...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3412 8233 3436 8236 3440 8223 3420 8207

RB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
735 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0637 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BOILING SPRINGS SC      35.04N 81.98W
07/16/2012                   SPARTANBURG        SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN BOILING SPRINGS SC DUE TO STRONG
            WINDS

&&

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
735 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

SCZ001-004-170000-
GREATER OCONEE-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
735 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTY THROUGH
800 PM EDT...

AT 733 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTH OF WALHALLA...MOVING SOUTH AT 5
MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  WESTMINSTER...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3456 8312 3456 8314 3458 8316 3477 8318
      3480 8296 3458 8288 3455 8312

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
737 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

SCZ005-010-170015-
ANDERSON-GREATER PICKENS-
737 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ANDERSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN PICKENS COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

AT 733 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF EASLEY...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PICKENS...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  EASLEY...
  LIBERTY...
  POWDERSVILLE...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3488 8275 3497 8253 3485 8248 3483 8249
      3483 8248 3482 8248 3477 8245 3468 8246
      3463 8273

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
746 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

SCZ011-019-170030-
ABBEVILLE-GREENWOOD-
746 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GREENWOOD AND SOUTHEASTERN
ABBEVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM EDT...

AT 741 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR GREENWOOD...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  GREENWOOD...
  NINETY SIX...
  CALLISON...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3396 8205 3398 8205 3397 8219 3401 8224
      3397 8230 3398 8232 3408 8234 3431 8231
      3428 8205 3417 8189 3416 8190 3413 8187
      3395 8202

CSH