Severe Thunderstorm Warning 407, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

079 
WWUS52 KGSP 162228
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
628 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

SCC059-083-087-162300-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0407.000000T0000Z-120716T2300Z/
LAURENS SC-SPARTANBURG SC-UNION SC-
628 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL
UNION...SOUTHEASTERN SPARTANBURG AND LAURENS COUNTIES IN UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 625 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BUFFALO TO BOYD MILL POND...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  LAURENS.
  CROSS KEYS.
  CLINTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAINFALL. FLOODING OF DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR.
DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER IS FLOWING OVER THE ROAD.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3452 8223 3477 8193 3478 8171 3453 8165
      3436 8217
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 329DEG 11KT 3475 8176 3444 8212

$$

RB

268 
WWUS52 KGSP 162240
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
640 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

SCC059-083-087-162300-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0407.000000T0000Z-120716T2300Z/
LAURENS SC-SPARTANBURG SC-UNION SC-
640 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL
UNION...SOUTHEASTERN SPARTANBURG AND CENTRAL LAURENS COUNTIES IN
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 637 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CROSS KEYS TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BOYD MILL POND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CROSS KEYS.
  CLINTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAINFALL. FLOODING OF DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR.
DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER IS FLOWING OVER THE ROAD.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3452 8223 3469 8192 3476 8174 3453 8165
      3436 8217
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 329DEG 11KT 3466 8177 3441 8210

$$

RB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
528 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH
MID-WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY AND LINGERS INTO
SATURDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH BY SUNDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 5PM EDT...ROBUST CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER SEVERAL PARTS
OF THE CWFA WITH NUMEROUS SVR TS WARNINGS ISSUED. TS OUTFLOWS
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER NEW STORMS AND WITH THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION...MOST OF THE CELLS ARE ABLE TO GROW
TALL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 230 PM EDT MONDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN CANADA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY....BUT THE MEAN TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH WILL LOSE
AMPLITUDE. MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF NE FL WILL
MOVE WEST AND INLAND. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER IMPULSE DIVES INTO THE EAST COAST TROUGH...
LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE RETROGRADING FL SYSTEM MAY
HAVE SUFFICIENT REACH BY TUESDAY TO STEER UPPER IMPULSES WEST ACROSS
GA AND THE CAROLINAS INTO THE BLUE RIDGE...PERHAPS CAUSING
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 145 PM EDT...WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SE STATES IN THE SHORT TERM AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER FLORIDA MEANDERS
GENERALLY WESTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH LEE TROUGHING EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE...PLAN VIEW
CAPES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 2000J/KG OVER MANY PIEDMONT AREAS BOTH
WED AND THU AFTERNOONS WITH WELL OVER 1000J/KG ELESWHERE. THIS SET
UP FAVORS RATHER TYPICAL JULY WEATHER WITH DIURNALLY ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND THEN MOSTLY
DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS
IDEA AS CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL CIN IS INDICATED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE BETTER THU AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA AND UPPER HEIGHTS SLOWLY
FALL. WILL FOLLOW THE POP TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HOWEVER...DOWNSCALED NAM POPS LOOK REASONABLE SO BLENDED THEM INTO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO GIVE A LITTLE MORE DETAIL. SEVERE THREAT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE AS
PROFILES REMAIN RATHER MOIST AND WIND FIELDS WEAK. ISOLD HYDRO
PROBLEMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT DUE TO WEAK STREERING FLOW. TEMP
VERIFICATION DATA OF LATE INDICATES THAT THE BIAS CORRECTED GMOS AND
ADJMAV ARE PERFORMING THE BEST...SO USED A BLEND OF THOSE GUIDANCE
SOURCES FOR TEMPS. THIS YIELDS MAX TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE AVE
BOTH WED AND THU. MIN TEMPS ALSO ARE FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE THURSDAY....AND SLOWLY SLIPS
SOUTH INTO THE NC/SC LINE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERY DEEP MOIST LAYER WITH PW VALUES
OVER 2 INCHES DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DYNAMIC LIFTING WILL PROVIDE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON LATE FRIDAY AS OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK. HENCE...POPS HAVE BEEN
ACCORDINGLY RAISED INTO THE 60S OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA FRI AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING.

THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DROP FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER
MIDLANDS SAT AND BECOMES STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SO WE WILL SEE DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND POPS HAVE BEEN
LOWERED ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION IN NW NC IS AIMING AT THE INTERSTATE 77
CORRIDOR. ON ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY...IT PASS TO THE EAST OF
KCLT...SO FOR NO JUST DRY THUNDER WILL BE CARRIED WITH NO
RESTRICTION. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUPPORT A LOW VFR CIG THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF MVFR FOG AT
DAYBREAK...BUT UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON FOG...NONE WILL BE
CARRIED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PRECIPITATION COULD GET GOING EARLY
TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LOW DIRECTS IMPULSES ACROSS WESTERN NC FROM
THE EAST. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...A DRY FORECAST WILL BE FEATURED AT
THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE WSW UNTIL
DAYBREAK...THEN WILL VEER TO WNW.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE NW SHOULD PASS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO KHKY TO AT LEAST CARRY TS AND CB THIS AFTERNOON....BUT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL PASS WELL EAST OF THE OTHER SITES. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED THAT THEY WILL CAUSE RESTRICTIONS AT TAF
SITES...SO FOR NOW THUNDER WITH LOW VFR CB WILL BE CARRIED.
GUIDANCE IS BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF FOG TOWARD DAWN...BUT CONDITIONS
WERE GENERALLY GOOD THIS MORNING...AND ONLY THE MOST LIKELY SPOT...
KAVL...WILL HAVE MVFR FOG IN THE TAF. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DIRECTS IMPULSES WEST
INTO THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ACCEPT THIS
SCENARIO JUST YET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAND
WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIGHT ENE WINDS AFTER DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST
CHANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDER...CLOUD
COVER...AND FOG OVER SATURATED SOIL.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...JPT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
324 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-171930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
324 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING WHICH MEANS SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED FLOODING.
ALSO...A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. IN ADDITION...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
452 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DALLAS                  35.31N 81.18W
07/16/2012                   GASTON             NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON MOBILE HOME WHICH SPLIT IT IN TWO SECTIONS.

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
453 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             2 SE CATAWBA            35.69N 81.05W
07/16/2012  E0.75 INCH       CATAWBA            NC   PUBLIC

&&

CSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
513 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     HAIL             2 SSE MAULDIN           34.76N 82.29W
07/16/2012  E0.75 INCH       GREENVILLE         SC   PUBLIC

            OBSERVED AT BASF ALONG OLD STAGE RD.

&&

CSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
517 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NNW CHARLOTTE         35.27N 80.88W
07/16/2012                   MECKLENBURG        NC   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN ALONG DAKOTA AVE

&&

CSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
519 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW HUNTERSVILLE      35.41N 80.87W
07/16/2012                   MECKLENBURG        NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL SMALL TREES BLOWN DOWN AND DIME HAIL NEAR
            HOSPITAL

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
520 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     HAIL             2 SSW MAULDIN           34.76N 82.32W
07/16/2012  E1.00 INCH       GREENVILLE         SC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZED.

&&

OUTLAW