Severe Thunderstorm Warning 302, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

330 
WWUS52 KGSP 031835
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
235 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

NCC011-023-027-111-031915-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0302.000000T0000Z-120703T1915Z/
AVERY NC-MCDOWELL NC-CALDWELL NC-BURKE NC-
235 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
BURKE...SOUTHERN CALDWELL...NORTHEASTERN MCDOWELL AND SOUTHERN AVERY
COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 231 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM COLLETTSVILLE TO ASHFORD...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  GAMEWELL.
  HUDSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAINFALL. FLOODING OF DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR.
DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER IS FLOWING OVER THE ROAD.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3582 8137 3578 8183 3590 8198 3591 8198
      3598 8205 3599 8170
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 303DEG 14KT 3591 8164 3591 8191

$$

RB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK AND SWING EAST BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM...SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS FIRED ACROSS THE MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED. A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE STORMS
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS ALSO BEGUN FIRING IN THE HIGH
THETA-E AIR OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. STORMS HAVE BEEN
MOVING EXTREMELY SLOWLY...AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PROVE TO BE MORE OF
A THREAT THAN SEVERE WEATHER. COVERAGE HAS ACTUALLY BECOME QUITE
HIGH IN THE NORTHERN MTNS...BUT AGAIN SLOW/QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT
MEANS THAT STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL NOT COVER MUCH REAL
ESTATE...SO POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGH CHANCE/PERHAPS THE LOW END
OF THE LIKELY RANGE. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SCATTERED
ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO THE FOOTHILLS (ESP THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS)
AS COLD POOLS FROM MTN CONVECTION MATURE. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN THE MID-UPPER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH UPPER 80S EXPECTED
IN THE MAJOR MTN VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...ANY ONGOING CONVECTION SHUD DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...SHORT WAVES DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WED
AND THU IN THE NLY FLOW BETWEEN A DEVELOPING NEW ENGLAND LOW AND MID
CONTINENTAL RIDGE. AT THE SFC...A MTN RIDGE/PIEDMONT TROF SETS UP
WED AND REMAINS IN PLACE THU. WITH COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS EACH AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCT
COVERAGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS AND ALONG THE LEE TROF AND MOVE SE
ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION SHUD BE MAINLY DIURNAL...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LINGERING NIGHTTIME CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. MODERATE DCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED...SO ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. HIGHS WILL BE
NEARLY STEADY EACH DAY...LOW TO MID 90S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS AND
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 MTN VALLEYS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND
100 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR.

UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY FRI BUT SFC
PATTER REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. ATMOS REMAINS
UNSTABLE BUT LESS IN THE WAY OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER FOR
FORCING. EXPECT A LITTLE LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT SCT COVERAGE
STILL EXPECTED. SVR CHC WILL ALSO BE LESS. HIGHS STEADY OR A DEGREE
WARMER...WITH HEAT INDEX ABOVE 100 MANY LOCATIONS BUT LESS THAN 105.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXT. GOOD AGREEMENT IS HAD WITH
THE RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKING DOWN AND RETROGRADING WHILE A BROAD L/W
TROF ENCOMPASSES THE EAST COAST BY MON. AT THE SFC...A LEE TROF WILL
BE MAINTAINED WHILE A BACK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH LATE SUN NIGHT AND
MOST LIKELY BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE SRN ZONES OR MIDLANDS
THROUGH TUE. MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS OF SFC BASED CAPE WILL BE
GENERATED EACH AFTERNOON AS MAX TEMPS REACH A FEW DEGREES F ABOVE
NORMAL IN A STAGNANT AND RELATIVELY HIGH LLVL TD ENVIRONMENT. MAX
TEMPS MAY DROP TO NEAR NORMAL BY MON AND TUE AS H5 HEIGHTS FALL AND
CLOUDINESS INCREASES. POPS WERE MAINTAINED AT CLIMO OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH POPS REACHING THE LOW CHANCE RANGE OUTSIDE THE MTNS
MON AND TUE AS THE SFC BOUNDARY PROVIDES A MORE S/LY FOCUSING
MECHANISM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FLOW ALOFT IS VERY WEAK...AND IT MAY
THEREFORE BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY OF THIS CONVECTION INTO THE KCLT
AREA LATER TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...THE CUMULUS FIELD IS STARTING TO
GET HEALTHY IN THE VCNY...SO ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY
THIS EVENING...SO THE PROB30 HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TEMPO FOR TS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SW
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT/VRBL THIS EVENING...THEN RETURN TO THE WSW BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FIRING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS
EXPECTED...BUT IS ALSO BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. DUE TO VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...STORMS ARE
EXHIBITING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT...SO IF THEY DO MAKE THEIR WAY
TOWARD THE TERMINALS...IT/S GOING TO TAKE A WHILE. VCTS HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE USUAL CAVEAT APPLIES OF
FOG/STRATUS BEING POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

OUTLOOK...AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL EXPECTED
EACH DAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH AREAS OF MORNING FOG/
STRATUS POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE APPROACHED AND POSSIBLY
EXCEEDED...

AVL
JULY 3RD  93 IN 1970
JULY 4TH  97 IN 1948
JULY 5TH  96 IN 1948
JULY 6TH  93 IN 1993

GSP
JULY 3RD   99 IN 1931
JULY 4TH  100 IN 1993
JULY 5TH   98 IN 1993
JULY 6TH  100 IN 1993

CLT
JULY 3RD   99 IN 1970
JULY 4TH   99 IN 1993
JULY 5TH  100 IN 1954
JULY 6TH   99 IN 1930

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JDL
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...HG/RWH
AVIATION...JDL
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
356 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-040800-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
356 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1240 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

NCZ048-049-031730-
MADISON-YANCEY-
1240 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL YANCEY AND EASTERN
MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM EDT...

AT 1236 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FAUST...OR 11 MILES WEST OF BURNSVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3602 8227 3579 8225 3579 8234 3582 8236
      3581 8246 3580 8247 3580 8259 3597 8260
      3596 8256 3600 8248 3603 8229

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

NCZ033-031815-
AVERY-
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AVERY COUNTY THROUGH 215
PM EDT...

AT 136 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SUGAR MOUNTAIN...OR 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF
NEWLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  BANNER ELK...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3620 8188 3620 8185 3616 8182 3611 8180
      3609 8176 3607 8175 3603 8182 3615 8196
      3621 8190

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
157 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

NCZ050-031845-
MITCHELL-
157 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MITCHELL COUNTY THROUGH
245 PM EDT...

AT 154 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF BAKERSVILLE...OR 11 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BURNSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  BAKERSVILLE...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3608 8207 3602 8204 3597 8206 3591 8214
      3593 8216 3593 8218 3595 8219 3601 8219
      3602 8223 3599 8225 3606 8231 3614 8218

JPT