Severe Thunderstorm Warning 298, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

573 
WWUS52 KGSP 031726
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
126 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

NCC021-111-031815-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0298.000000T0000Z-120703T1815Z/
BUNCOMBE NC-MCDOWELL NC-
126 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
MCDOWELL AND EAST CENTRAL BUNCOMBE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 118 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OLD
FORT...OR 14 MILES WEST OF MARION...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST
CENTRAL BUNCOMBE AND SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3567 8219 3553 8210 3552 8216 3553 8217
      3552 8219 3552 8222 3551 8224 3550 8233
      3566 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 1726Z 352DEG 5KT 3563 8225

$$

KRENTZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1057 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE EAST COAST BY MID
WEEK AND SWINGS EAST BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE RESULTING IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA IN COMPARISON WITH YESTERDAYS
READINGS...BY AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES. THEREFORE...AFTER YESTERDAYS
BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT...MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH
(BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE REACH) THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE PIEDMONT. DEWPOINTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER AS WELL...AND THESE
FACTORS...COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER THE
GSO/FFC RAOBS...ARE ALREADY RESULTING IN HEALTHY CAPE VALUES ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH THE AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON IN AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT...SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN BY 18Z. WINDS ALOFT/SHEAR ARE
VERY WEAK. IN FACT...MEAN 0-6 KM WINDS OFF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
LESS THAN 5 KT. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS (AND THE FFC RAOB)
DEPICT SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS.
THEREFORE...THE RISK OF INDIVIDUAL SEVERE UPDRAFTS DOESN/T APPEAR TO
BE ESPECIALLY HIGH...AND THE CAPE/SHEAR SITUATION DOESN/T FAVOR
ORGANIZATION ALONG OUTFLOWS. HOWEVER...I WOULD EXPECT SEVERAL PULSE
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WITH
SUCH WEAK STEERING FLOW...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL NOT COVER MUCH
REAL ESTATE...SO POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE 30-50 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH SLOW EXPANSION OF CHANCE POPS INTO THE PIEDMONT BE
EVENING. INCREASING MOISTURE/PWAT VALUES AND THE WEAK FLOW SHOULD
ALSO SUPPORT A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

TONIGHT...ANY ONGOING CONVECTION SHUD DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...SHORT WAVES DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WED
AND THU IN THE NLY FLOW BETWEEN A DEVELOPING NEW ENGLAND LOW AND MID
CONTINENTAL RIDGE. AT THE SFC...A MTN RIDGE/PIEDMONT TROF SETS UP
WED AND REMAINS IN PLACE THU. WITH COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS EACH AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCT
COVERAGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS AND ALONG THE LEE TROF AND MOVE SE
ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION SHUD BE MAINLY DIURNAL...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LINGERING NIGHTTIME CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. MODERATE DCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED...SO ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. HIGHS WILL BE
NEARLY STEADY EACH DAY...LOW TO MID 90S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS AND
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 MTN VALLEYS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND
100 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR.

UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY FRI BUT SFC
PATTER REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. ATMOS REMAINS
UNSTABLE BUT LESS IN THE WAY OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER FOR
FORCING. EXPECT A LITTLE LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT SCT COVERAGE
STILL EXPECTED. SVR CHC WILL ALSO BE LESS. HIGHS STEADY OR A DEGREE
WARMER...WITH HEAT INDEX ABOVE 100 MANY LOCATIONS BUT LESS THAN 105.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FCST. 00Z MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS QUITE SIMILAR WITH MAINLY MINOR DETAIL DIFFERENCE.
THE DOMINANT UPPER MIDWEST HIGH CENTER WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH THE RIDGE SLOWLY FLATTENING
FROM THE NORTH. LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND THE INCREASING
PROXIMITY TO NW FLOW MCS TRACKS WILL REQUIRE CHC MTN TO ISOLD
PIEDMONT POPS EACH DAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH ANY MCS TIMING...
POPS FOCUS MAINLY ON THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN/EVENING PERIODS. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

THE GFS REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE EAST
THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS. A
CONSENSUS SOLUTION CALLS FOR CHC POPS THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR MON
AFTN/EVENING. ANY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAKING A RUN SOUTHWARD LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD STALL N OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A LEE
TROUGH EXTENDING SW THROUGH THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT TO PROVIDE SOME
FOCUS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL BY MONDAY
AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR...EXCEPT IF DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY TSRA. CIRRUS IS
THINNING OUT THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING MAY START OUT
NELY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SW BY EARLY AFTN. ISOLD TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA TODAY. SO PROB30 WILL BE
KEPT FOR MAINLY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY. LIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME SW BY EARLY AFTN...EXCEPT AT KAVL. ISOLD-SCT
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN (FIRST ACRS THE MTNS THEN
OVER THE PIEDMONT LATE AFTN IN THE EVE)...SO HAVE VCTS AT KAVL
STARTING AT 17Z...THEN PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL SITES FROM LATE AFTN
INTO EARLY EVE. CONVECTION SHUD WANE LATE IN THE EVENING...LEAVING
DEBRIS CIRRUS ONCE AGAIN WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WED MRNG.

OUTLOOK...AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL EXPECTED
EACH DAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH AREAS OF MORNING FOG/
STRATUS POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE APPROACHED AND POSSIBLY
EXCEEDED...

AVL
JULY 3RD  93 IN 1970

GSP
JULY 3RD   99 IN 1931
JULY 4TH  100 IN 1993

CLT
JULY 3RD   99 IN 1970
JULY 4TH   99 IN 1993

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JDL
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...HG/RWH
AVIATION...ARK
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
356 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-040800-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
356 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1240 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

NCZ048-049-031730-
MADISON-YANCEY-
1240 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL YANCEY AND EASTERN
MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM EDT...

AT 1236 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FAUST...OR 11 MILES WEST OF BURNSVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3602 8227 3579 8225 3579 8234 3582 8236
      3581 8246 3580 8247 3580 8259 3597 8260
      3596 8256 3600 8248 3603 8229

KRENTZ