Frost Advisory 12, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

187 
WWUS72 KGSP 080256
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
956 PM EST WED NOV 7 2012

...AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
OVERNIGHT...

.COOL AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY FROST.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ068-504-506-508-510-SCZ004>008-010>013-
081100-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0012.121108T0500Z-121108T1400Z/
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-CLEVELAND-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-
ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOCCOA...HARTWELL...ELBERTON...SHELBY...
GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...
LAURENS...UNION
956 PM EST WED NOV 7 2012

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST 
  GEORGIA AND THE GEORGIA AND UPSTATE PIEDMONT.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST MAY DAMAGE OR DESTROY SENSITIVE 
  VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
237 PM EST WED NOV 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND REMAIN DOMINATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OFF TO THE WEST AND
PUSH INTO THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM...A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL DIG WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING...ACTING TO DEEPEN THE MEAN TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER DPVA WILL BYPASS THE GSP CWA...LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN NC MTNS...AS A WEAK BUT VERY MOIST NW FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED IN RESPONSE TO THE VORT MAX PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DEPLETE BEFORE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS SUBSTANTIALLY.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN
JUST HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SLOW TO
DEPLETE THE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND FILLING UPPER LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. NEVERTHELESS...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ELEVATED
DEWPOINTS...FROST FORMATION IS A DECENT BET ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...AND A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR AREAS THAT HAVE
NOT SEEN A FREEZE YET THIS SEASON.

FOR THURSDAY...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR IN ALL AREAS BY LATE MORNING...AS
DEEP NW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. FULL SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NICE
WARM UP ABOVE TODAY/S READINGS IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH THE
RELATIVELY DEEP UPPER TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN MAXES A COUPLE OF
CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM WEDNESDAY...A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE DURING THIS
TIME. THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TOWARD SUNRISE ALLOWING MIN TEMPS TO
FALL TO AROUND FREEZING OVER PARTS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL PARTS OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...THE COUNTIES THAT HAVE NOT YET HIT FREEZING MAY
DO THIS THURSDAY NIGHT. I/LL DEFER TO THE MID SHIFT ON ANY KIND OF
FREEZE WATCH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS I/M NOT EXPECTING ANY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM WEDNESDAY...GOOD OPS MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH
THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE PERIOD STARTS WITH RIDGING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WHICH MOVES EAST AND IS SUPPRESSED MONDAY AS A DEEP TROF
MOVES INTO THE MS VALLEY. THE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE ERN US TUE AND
TUE NITE WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING WED.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
EAST SUNDAY THEN WEAKENS MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THERE SRN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROF SLOWS SLIGHTLY TUE
DEVELOPING A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AS IS MOVES
ACROSS THE CWFA. THE OPS GUIDANCE DOES NOT SLOW THE FRONT VERY MUCH
EVEN WITH THESE FEATURES. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER. DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN WED. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS
COME IN DRY FOR WED AND WED NITE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND IN
OPPOSITION TO THE 00Z ECMWF. THE 00Z RUN STALLED THE FRONT ALONG THE
GULF COAST THEN BEGAN MOISTURE AND PRECIP RETURN NORTH INTO THE CWFA.

ALL THIS MEANS A DRY FCST SUN AND SLOWLY INCREASING POP MON...
MAINLY OVER THE WRN CWFA AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGHS WILL BE
NEARLY 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY WITH LOWS SAT NITE NEAR
NORMAL INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 ABOVE NORMAL SUN NITE. HAVE CHC POP
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA MON NITE WITH BEST CHC MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST TUE. COULD BE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SCENARIO TUE AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER SHEAR ON CURRENT GUIDANCE THAN PREV RUNS BUT DECENT HELICITY
REMAINS. IF THE FRONT LINGERS A LITTLE LONGER AS THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
SUGGESTS...THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT NW FLOW SNOWFALL WOULD
DEVELOP TUE NITE. EITHER WAY...THE BULK OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY FOR
MOST OF THE CWFA. THE DRY WX CONTINUES INTO WED. LOWS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL TUE NITE THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR WED NITE. HIGHS TUE SHUD
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FALLING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND KHKY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT PRECIP AND LOW CIGS HAVE BEEN WELL-BEHAVED IN STAYING WEST OF
THESE TERMINALS...AND IT APPEARS THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE...WITH
MAINLY ONLY HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
COMPLETELY BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SOME
DEGREE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH REMAIN VERY LIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...EARLIER PERSISTENT -RA RESULTED IN CIGS LOWERING TO IFR
AT KAVL/KAND/KGSP. HOWEVER...AS RAIN CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF DURING
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO MVFR...WITH VFR
EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS BY SUNSET. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KAVL...WHERE A MOIST UP-VALLEY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN PERSISTENCE OF
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. MVFR VISBY WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE WITH THE DIMINISHING PRECIP. WITH MOISTURE LEVELS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...THERE IS FOG POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT AT KAVL...BUT WILL BANK ON NW WINDS OF 5-10 KT KEEPING
THINGS SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR AT ALL TERMINALS BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NCZ068-504-506-508-510.
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     SCZ004>008-010>013.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1248 PM EST WED NOV 7 2012

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-501-503-505-081800-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
1248 PM EST WED NOV 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

OCCASIONAL SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-NCZ035>037-056-057-062>065-069>072-082-502-507-509-
SCZ001>003-081800-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
1248 PM EST WED NOV 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ068-504-506-508-510-SCZ004>014-019-081800-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-CLEVELAND-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1248 PM EST WED NOV 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THE HIGH BUILDS IN QUICKLY
ENOUGH...SEVERAL AREAS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT COULD FALL
TO FREEZING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

LANE