Freeze Warning 11, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
711 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF AND
MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM...ONE UPPER WAVE IS PULLING AWAY FROM CENTRAL NC
THROUGH ERN VA THIS EVENING...WHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE 18Z MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR FORCING WILL PUSH INTO THE SW
MTNS BY 03Z AND THEN REMAIN PERSISTENT THROUGH WED MORNING.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE NOT VERY COLD...WITH 850 MB TEMPS RUNNING
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE SW MTNS. HOWEVER...THE NAM
PROFILES HAVE COME IN A BIT COLDER OVERNIGHT...AND APPEAR TO DRIVE
WET BULB PROFILES BELOW FREEZING A BIT DEEPER DOWN INTO THE FRENCH
BROAD VALLEY. WITH THIS UPDATE...SNOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN LOWERED A
TOUCH...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE TO OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA...AND MAINLY A DUSTING IN THE
LOWER SURROUNDING MTN VALLEYS.

ANOTHER ISSUE IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY GET VERY CLOSE TO THE
FREEZING MARK IN THE NW NC PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE
LATEST SATELLITE CLOUD TRENDS...A SHORT FUSE FREEZE WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED THERE SHORTLY IF THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT SOON.

PRECIP SHOULD STRUGGLE A BIT TO SPILL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
WITH SOLID CHC POPS EXTENDING AT LEAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH
MIDDAY WED. A STRAY FLURRY COULD FALL THERE...BUT RAIN LOOKS MORE
LIKELY WITH ANY PRECIP EAST OF THE MTNS. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUITE A
BIT UNDER THE PASSING UPPER THERMAL TROUGH ON WED. HAVE ADDED
SHOWERS AS THE PRECIP CHARACTER...BUT WILL NOT ADD ANY THUNDER AT
THIS POINT GIVEN THE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM TUESDAY...THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A LONG WAVE
TROUGH WED NIGHT...THOUGH THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE
OFF THE SE COAST BY 0600 UTC THU. WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST YOU WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT HEALTHY NW FLOW MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...IN THIS CASE THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS WILL BE RATHER DRY. I
STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF MIXED PCPN TYPES INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ALONG THE TN LINE...BUT THE QPF IS QUITE LIGHT AND THE PCPN SHOULD
BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT OVERNIGHT TO
KEEP THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ZONES ABOVE FREEZING.

THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA THE
FOLLOWING 36 HOURS...AND THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A LONG WAVE RIDGE
BY FRI AFTN. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU NIGHT...THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR PARTS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TO FALL TO AROUND
FREEZING. SINCE OUR FROST/FREEZE SEASON RUNS THROUGH NOVEMBER 15TH
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS I/LL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. HUMIDITY
VALUES ALSO FALL OFF CONSIDERABLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH THE
WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WX CONCERNS. IT/S
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NAM SFC DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE A BIT LOWER
THAN THE GFS/S THURSDAY AFTN. I/M NOT SURE WHY AS THERE ISN/T MUCH
DIFFERENCE IN THE LLVL PRESSURE PATTERN. AT ANY RATE I USED A 50/50
BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV MODEL GUIDANCE TO DERIVE MY DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE OVER THE REGION BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE 00Z ECMWF TAKES THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY WHILE THE 12Z GFS RUN IS SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ITS CENTER REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO OUR CWA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY
MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ECMWF
IS WEAKER AND FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS WETTER AND SLOWER WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA ON TUESDAY. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...I KEPT SLIGHT TO LOW-END CHANCE ON MONDAY WITH POPS
SLIGHTLY INCREASING INTO THE 30-40 RANGE FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY DAYTIME. POPS TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE NO WINTRY TYPE PRECIP
AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING LEVEL DURING THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...IR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY SOLID LAYER OF HIGHER BASED
STRATOCUMULUS SPILLING EASTWARD FROM THE NC MOUNTAINS OUT OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT IN THE CLT VICINITY. ALTHOUGH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WITH THE DEPARTING H5 LOW MAY THIN A LITTLE BIT LATE THIS
EVENING...ADDITIONAL VFR CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WAVE. THE MODEL PROFILES ALSO FEATURE VARYING DEGREES OF
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NRLY FLOW...BUT WITH MOS CONSENSUS
SOLIDLY INDICATING THAT CLOUDS WILL GET NO LOWER THAN VFR. WILL THUS
FEATURE CLOUDS AT MAINLY 5 TO 6 KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH N TO
NE WINDS EARLY BECOMING MORE NW LATE. ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN W AND
S OF THE AREA WITH THE NEXT WAVE OVERNIGHT THROUGH WED.

AT KAVL...IT MAY TAKE A COUPLE OF HOURS FOR CIGS TO SETTLE SOLIDLY
IN THE MVFR RANGE AS DEEPER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM
SYSTEM. ANTICIPATE THAT SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY 09Z...AND
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER TOWARD THE IFR RANGE. THE MOS IS
NOW MORE SOLIDLY ON THE PERSISTENT MVFR SIDE...SO WILL GO THAT ROUTE
FOR NOW...BUT BRIEF IFR WITH ANY BETTER RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MVFR TO LOW
END VFR IS LIKELY BY LATE DAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOLIDLY NW.

ELSEWHERE...ANTICIPATE THAT VFR CIGS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE ARRIVES. THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS WILL BE AT KAND AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH MID MORNING WED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE EAST OF THE MTNS WED MORNING...BUT
WITH CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT PRESENT. CIGS WILL
BE A BIT HIGHER AT KHKY...WITH LESS PRECIP CHANCE AS WELL. EXPECT
LIGHT N TO NW WINDS THROUGHOUT...POSSIBLY BECOMING SW LATE WED.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ051-052-059.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
318 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

NCZ051-052-059-072030-
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-NORTHERN JACKSON-
318 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM
EST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-048>050-053-058-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-072030-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
318 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE
4500 FEET MAY SEE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE LOWER...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE LESS THAN AN INCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-072030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
318 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THE HIGH BUILDS IN QUICKLY
ENOUGH...SEVERAL AREAS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT COULD FALL
TO FREEZING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

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