Flood Watch 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

004 
WGUS62 KGSP 180003
FFAGSP

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
803 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE
LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH. THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT OF
NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL
EXPERIENCE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. IN FACT...ALL OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WILL
RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY WILL BE 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...POSSIBLY CREATING AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING AND STREAM FLOODING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
SCZ001>003-181000-
/O.CON.KGSP.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-120918T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...NEWLAND...
SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...
SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE
803 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND 
  UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
  NORTHEAST GEORGIA...HABERSHAM AND RABUN. IN WESTERN NORTH 
  CAROLINA...AVERY...BURKE MOUNTAINS...BUNCOMBE...CALDWELL 
  MOUNTAINS...GRAHAM...HAYWOOD...HENDERSON...MCDOWELL 
  MOUNTAINS...MACON...MADISON...MITCHELL...NORTHERN JACKSON... 
  POLK MOUNTAINS...RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN JACKSON... 
  SWAIN...TRANSYLVANIA AND YANCEY. IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... 
  GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS...OCONEE MOUNTAINS AND PICKENS MOUNTAINS. 

* UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY. 

* WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
  AND PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CREATING AREAS OF
  HIGH RAINFALL OVER A RELATIVELY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.

* STREAM LEVELS WILL RISE QUICKLY AND POTENTIALLY RUN OUT THEIR
  BANKS. URBAN FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH POOR DRAINAGE WILL ALSO BE
  POSSIBLE. A FEW HEADWATER POINTS ALONG MAIN STEM
  RIVERS...PARTICULARLY THE FRENCH BROAD...MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE
  FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

MCAVOY

449 
WGUS62 KGSP 180239
FFAGSP

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1039 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH. THE SOUTH FACING BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT OF NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA WILL EXPERIENCE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. IN FACT...ALL OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
WILL RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY WILL
BE 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...POSSIBLY CREATING
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AND STREAM FLOODING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
SCZ001>003-181600-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-120918T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...NEWLAND...
SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...
SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE
1039 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND 
  UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
  NORTHEAST GEORGIA...HABERSHAM AND RABUN. IN WESTERN NORTH 
  CAROLINA...AVERY...BURKE MOUNTAINS...BUNCOMBE...CALDWELL 
  MOUNTAINS...GRAHAM...HAYWOOD...HENDERSON...MCDOWELL 
  MOUNTAINS...MACON...MADISON...MITCHELL...NORTHERN JACKSON... 
  POLK MOUNTAINS...RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN JACKSON... 
  SWAIN...TRANSYLVANIA AND YANCEY. IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... 
  GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS...OCONEE MOUNTAINS AND PICKENS MOUNTAINS. 

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. 

* WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST THROUGH TUESDAY
  MORNING...CREATING AREAS OF HIGH RAINFALL OVER A RELATIVELY
  SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.

* STREAM LEVELS WILL RISE QUICKLY AND POTENTIALLY RUN OUT THEIR 
  BANKS. URBAN FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH POOR DRAINAGE WILL ALSO 
  BE POSSIBLE. A FEW HEADWATER POINTS ALONG MAIN STEM RIVERS... 
  PARTICULARLY THE FRENCH BROAD...MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE FLOODING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

MCAVOY

164 
WGUS62 KGSP 180735
FFAGSP

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
335 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...STEADY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
THIS MORNING...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH. THE SOUTH FACING BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL EXPERIENCE THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...AND THIS AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED AROUND 2
INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY CREATING AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING AND STREAM FLOODING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
SCZ001>003-181600-
/O.CON.KGSP.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-120918T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...NEWLAND...
SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...
SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE
335 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND 
  UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
  NORTHEAST GEORGIA...HABERSHAM AND RABUN. IN WESTERN NORTH 
  CAROLINA...AVERY...BURKE MOUNTAINS...BUNCOMBE...CALDWELL 
  MOUNTAINS...GRAHAM...HAYWOOD...HENDERSON...MCDOWELL 
  MOUNTAINS...MACON...MADISON...MITCHELL...NORTHERN JACKSON... 
  POLK MOUNTAINS...RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN JACKSON... 
  SWAIN...TRANSYLVANIA AND YANCEY. IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... 
  GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS...OCONEE MOUNTAINS AND PICKENS MOUNTAINS. 

* UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY. 

* WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
  CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING...CREATING AREAS OF HIGH RAINFALL OVER
  A RELATIVELY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.

* STREAM LEVELS COULD RISE QUICKLY AND POTENTIALLY RUN OUT THEIR
  BANKS. URBAN FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH POOR DRAINAGE OR LOW LYING
  AREAS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

KRENTZ

041 
WGUS62 KGSP 181439
FFAGSP

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1039 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...STEADY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...

.A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT OF THE CAROLINAS WILL EXPERIENCE THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. THIS AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED
AROUND 4 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANOTHER 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
SCZ001>003-182200-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-120918T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...NEWLAND...
SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...
SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE
1039 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND 
  UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
  NORTHEAST GEORGIA...HABERSHAM AND RABUN. IN WESTERN NORTH 
  CAROLINA...AVERY...BURKE MOUNTAINS...BUNCOMBE...CALDWELL 
  MOUNTAINS...GRAHAM...HAYWOOD...HENDERSON...MCDOWELL 
  MOUNTAINS...MACON...MADISON...MITCHELL...NORTHERN JACKSON... 
  POLK MOUNTAINS...RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN JACKSON... 
  SWAIN...TRANSYLVANIA AND YANCEY. IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... 
  GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS...OCONEE MOUNTAINS AND PICKENS MOUNTAINS. 

* UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
  INTO THE AFTERNOON...CREATING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A
  RELATIVELY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.

* STREAM LEVELS WILL RISE QUICKLY AND EVENTUALLY RUN OUT THEIR
  BANKS. URBAN FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH POOR DRAINAGE OR LOW LYING
  AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

224 
WGUS62 KGSP 182203
FFAGSP

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
603 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
SCZ001>003-182315-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-120918T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...NEWLAND...
SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...
SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE
603 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA HAS EXPIRED. A COLD FRONT HAS
CROSSED THE MOUNTAINS...PUSHING HEAVY RAIN WELL EAST OF THE REGION.

$$

MCAVOY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1054 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...
AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO TENNESSEE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM...RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN UPSTATE INTO THE NC PIEDMONT WHICH WAS SLOWLY MOVING NE.THIS
AREA AT LEAST FOR NOW WAS IN THE AREA OF BEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.
PREVIOUS POP ADJUSTMENTS HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS WELL. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR BUT EXPECT FOR NOW THAT ANY FLOODING WILL BE
TOO LOCALIZED TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT AREA. VAD WIND
PROFILE FROM KGSP RADAR INDICATES THAT CAD LAYER IS ABOUT 2KFT WITH
NOT AS MUCH DEPTH EASTWARD PER KCLT VAD. INTERESTINGLY...MOUNTAIN
METARS INDICATE THAT THE STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED THERE. THE UPSHOT IS
THAT UPGLIDE OVER CAD AREA AND HIGHER TERRAIN OVER WESTERN
NC...COUPLED WITH RATHER DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL SERVE TO
CONTINUE TO REGENERATE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAVE UPDATED MAX
TEMPS BASED ON THE 12Z NAM AND EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF THE CAD OVER
THE PIEDMONT AREAS WHICH LOWERED THEM BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES THERE.

12Z NAM STILL PAINTS A VERY WET SCENARIO FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS
UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW INCREASES. CURRENT HPC AND QPF IN GRIDS INDICATE THAT HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ALSO THE GMOS QPF IS QUITE HIGH
ALL MOUNTAIN AREAS OVERNIGHT...SO I PLAN TO EXPAND THE CURRENT FLOOD
WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE NC MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL NOW INCLUDE ALL
OF THE SMOKIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE AND RAINY PERIOD IS IN STORE OVER THE NEAR TERM AS A
DYNAMICAL SYSTEM IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS THE NR/RN GOM. IR
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A BAROCLINIC LEAF AND A STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS
ERN TX. THIS SYSTEM WILL GET PULLED NE BY A L/W TROF OVER THE NEXT
24-48 HRS AND AFFECT THE CWFA WILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...ESP
ACROSS THE ERN FACING ESCARPMENT SLOPES. THE CURRENT INSITU WEDGE
SHOULD HOLD ON FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND KEEP THINGS FAIRLY STABLE.
THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND GENERATING
THE BEST SBCAPE AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS THE SW/RN ZONES
LATER TODAY. THIS COULD BECOME PROBLEMATIC HYDRO/WISE AS FAR AS
HEAVY PCPN DEVELOPING IN A MOIST AND DYNAMICALLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT.
THE BEST COMBO OF ISENT AND MECHANICAL LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
FACING ESCARPMENT REGION OF THE WRN CWFA. PWAT ANOMALIES SHOW THE
COLUMN AT 1-2 SDEV ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THAT AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING NW THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO
BE STRONG KINEMATICS SETTING UP AS THE SFC LOW MOVES UP THE TN RIVER
VALLEY. THE LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A 40-50 KT H85 JET MOSTLY
PERPENDICULAR TO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...AND THIS...ALONG WITH
THE CONVECTIVE THREAT COULD BE THE DIFFERENCE BTW SOME AREAS
RECEIVING 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN OR 3-4 INCHES...OR PERHAPS MORE. THE
RECENT RELATIVELY DRY CONDS WILL MAKE FOR HIGH FFG NUMBERS...BUT
BELIEVE ENOUGH OF A SHORT TERM THREAT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH
PCPN OVER A SHORT TIME WARRANTS THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
AREAS NORTH OF THE SRN ESCARPMENT UP THROUGH THE NRN NC MTNS WILL
ALSO BE INCLUDED IN THE WATCH AS ENOUGH OF A UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND
STRONG FORCING WILL BE PRESENT THERE AS WELL. MANY AREAS OUTSIDE THE
MTNS CAN EXPECT A GOOD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BTW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT MONDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE OUT OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON
THURSDAY...CROSSING OUR AREA LATE IN THE DAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SW ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. A THIRDS SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FORM THE SW ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...THE BEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL STILL BE PRESENT
IN THE MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING AND VEERING SW TO BECOME PARALLEL
TO THE BLUE RIDGE. HEAVY RAINFAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EARLY IN
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. ALTHOUGH THE
BEST CAPE WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA...THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WILL
SEE CAPAE INCREASE TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG AROUND MIDDAY. HELICITY
OVER THE SAME AREA WILL BE BEST IN THE EARLY MORNING...BUT MODERATE
HELICITY WILL STILL BE PRESENT AT MIDDAY...BEFORE DECREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON. A WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST TUESDAY BETWEEN
DECREASING HELICITY AND INCREASING CAPE...TERMINATING WITH THE
DECREASE IN BOTH FIELDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL NOT BE UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLOWS DOWN. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SURFACE WAVE RIDES NORTHEAST UP THE FRONT...WHILE THE WEAKER NAM
WAVE FAILS TO WRAP MOISTURE BACK AROUND TO OUR AREA. FOR NOW...THE
FORECAST WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 AM EDT MONDAY...THE MODELS MOVE AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM THE
MS RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY...TO THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE AN UPPER LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST IN
THE ECMWF BY SUNDAY...WHILE IT RACES OFF INTO QUEBEC IN THE GFS. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
ON THURSDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS SCANT IN BOTH THE FASTER GFS AND THE SLOWER
ECMWF....SUPPORTING RATHER LOW POPS. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOL AND
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREE BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE SECOND
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN WILL COOL TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT LOW IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING TIL AROUND
15Z. A GENERAL LIFT IN THE DECK TO MVFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WITH SOME BACK AND FORTH IFR OR VFR POSSIBLE
AS INSITU WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EAST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SE/LY THROUGH THE DAYTIME...WITH GUSTY
CONDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...THE EDGE OF THE WEDGE FRONT IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE SC TAF
SITES WHERE PERIODS OF VFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SCOURING -SHRA.
EXPECT THESE AREAS TO FILL IN AGAIN AFT RAIN SLOWLY DISSIPATES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. WEDGE WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY KEEPING WINDS E/LY TO SE/LY AT ALL SITES....POSSIBLY BECOMING
GUTSY LATE THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AT KAVL
AND KHKY.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION BY MID
WEEK...BRINGING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-049-050-053-062>065-501-503-505-507-
     509.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR SCZ001>003.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...SBK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
453 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

NCZ048-051-052-058-059-180900-
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
453 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY AND
UP THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE LOW MOVES PAST. AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...CAUSING SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND
STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HIGH
RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-049-050-053-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ001>003-
180900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
453 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HIGH
RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ004>014-019-180900-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
EASTERN POLK-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-
SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-
CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
453 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT THAT COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY TUESDAY THAT COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF WIND SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE
OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND...AND
PERHAPS TORNADOES. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...
ENDING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

07