Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

757 
WGUS62 KGSP 171546
FFAGSP

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1146 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS
   AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

.A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY AND BEGIN SPREADING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SOUTH FACING BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT OF NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA WILL EXPERIENCE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. IN FACT...ALL OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
WILL RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL. RAINNFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...POSSIBLY
CREATING AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AND STREAM FLOODING ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-049-050-053-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
SCZ001>003-172345-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FF.A.0004.120917T2200Z-120918T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.FA.A.0002.120917T2200Z-120918T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...NEWLAND...
SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...
LAKE LURE
1146 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE
  SOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHEAST
  GEORGIA...HABERSHAM AND RABUN. IN WESTERN NORTH
  CAROLINA...AVERY...BURKE MOUNTAINS...BUNCOMBE... CALDWELL
  MOUNTAINS...HENDERSON...MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS...MACON...
  MITCHELL...POLK MOUNTAINS...RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN
  JACKSON...TRANSYLVANIA AND YANCEY. IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
  GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS...OCONEE MOUNTAINS AND PICKENS MOUNTAINS.

* FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. 

* WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
  AND PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CREATING AREAS OF HIGH
  RAINFALL OVER A RELATIVELY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. 

* STREAM LEVELS WILL RISE QUICKLY AND POTENTIALLY RUN OUT THEIR
  BANKS. URBAN FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH POOR DRAINAGE WILL ALSO BE
  POSSIBLE. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&



$$

NCZ048-051-052-058-059-172345-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FA.A.0002.120917T2200Z-120918T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...
SYLVA
1146 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
   LATE TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...GRAHAM...HAYWOOD...MADISON... 
  NORTHERN JACKSON AND SWAIN. 

* FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. 

* WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
  AND PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CREATING AREAS OF HIGH
  RAINFALL OVER A RELATIVELY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. 

* STREAM LEVELS WILL RISE QUICKLY AND POTENTIALLY RUN OUT THEIR
  BANKS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
351 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...
AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO TENNESSEE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN ACTIVE AND RAINY PERIOD IS IN STORE OVER THE NEAR TERM AS A
DYNAMICAL SYSTEM IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS THE NR/RN GOM. IR
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A BAROCLINIC LEAF AND A STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS
ERN TX. THIS SYSTEM WILL GET PULLED NE BY A L/W TROF OVER THE NEXT
24-48 HRS AND AFFECT THE CWFA WILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...ESP
ACROSS THE ERN FACING ESCARPMENT SLOPES. THE CURRENT INSITU WEDGE
SHOULD HOLD ON FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND KEEP THINGS FAIRLY STABLE.
THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND GENERATING
THE BEST SBCAPE AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS THE SW/RN ZONES
LATER TODAY. THIS COULD BECOME PROBLEMATIC HYDRO/WISE AS FAR AS
HEAVY PCPN DEVELOPING IN A MOIST AND DYNAMICALLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT.
THE BEST COMBO OF ISENT AND MECHANICAL LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
FACING ESCARPMENT REGION OF THE WRN CWFA. PWAT ANOMALIES SHOW THE
COLUMN AT 1-2 SDEV ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THAT AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING NW THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO
BE STRONG KINEMATICS SETTING UP AS THE SFC LOW MOVES UP THE TN RIVER
VALLEY. THE LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A 40-50 KT H85 JET MOSTLY
PERPENDICULAR TO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...AND THIS...ALONG WITH
THE CONVECTIVE THREAT COULD BE THE DIFFERENCE BTW SOME AREAS
RECEIVING 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN OR 3-4 INCHES...OR PERHAPS MORE. THE
RECENT RELATIVELY DRY CONDS WILL MAKE FOR HIGH FFG NUMBERS...BUT
BELIEVE ENOUGH OF A SHORT TERM THREAT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH
PCPN OVER A SHORT TIME WARRANTS THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
AREAS NORTH OF THE SRN ESCARPMENT UP THROUGH THE NRN NC MTNS WILL
ALSO BE INCLUDED IN THE WATCH AS ENOUGH OF A UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND
STRONG FORCING WILL BE PRESENT THERE AS WELL. MANY AREAS OUTSIDE THE
MTNS CAN EXPECT A GOOD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BTW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT MONDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE OUT OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON
THURSDAY...CROSSING OUR AREA LATE IN THE DAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SW ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CROSSING OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. A THIRDS SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FORM THE SW ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...THE BEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL STILL BE PRESENT
IN THE MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING AND VEERING SW TO BECOME PARALLEL
TO THE BLUE RIDGE. HEAVY RAINFAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EARLY IN
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. ALTHOUGH THE
BEST CAPE WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA...THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WILL
SEE CAPAE INCREASE TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG AROUND MIDDAY. HELICITY
OVER THE SAME AREA WILL BE BEST IN THE EARLY MORNING...BUT MODERATE
HELICITY WILL STILL BE PRESENT AT MIDDAY...BEFORE DECREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON. A WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST TUESDAY BETWEEN
DECREASING HELICITY AND INCREASING CAPE...TERMINATING WITH THE
DECREASE IN BOTH FIELDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL NOT BE UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
SLOWS DOWN. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SURFACE WAVE RIDES NORTHEAST UP THE FRONT...WHILE THE WEAKER NAM
WAVE FAILS TO WRAP MOISTURE BACK AROUND TO OUR AREA. FOR NOW...THE
FORECAST WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 AM EDT MONDAY...THE MODELS MOVE AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM THE
MS RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY...TO THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE AN UPPER LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST IN
THE ECMWF BY SUNDAY...WHILE IT RACES OFF INTO QUEBEC IN THE GFS. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
ON THURSDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS SCANT IN BOTH THE FASTER GFS AND THE SLOWER
ECMWF....SUPPORTING RATHER LOW POPS. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOL AND
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREE BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE SECOND
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN WILL COOL TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE 06Z TAFS ACCOUNT FOR THE IFR CIGS WHICH HAVE ALREADY
SET UP AND SHOULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE SATURATED INSITU
WEDGE WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK DOWN AND AND GENERALLY IMPROVEMENT TO
MFVR CIGS AROUND 15Z/16Z COULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. LOW END E/LY TO SE/LY WINDS WILL PREVAIL...HOWEVER AS A
DYNAMIC LOW PUSHES INTO ERN TN TONIGHT...GUSTY CONDS SHOULD DEVELOP
AFT 02Z OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...THE AREA HAS BECOME MOSTLY SOCKED IN THE WITH IFR TO
LIFR CIGS AS AN INSITU WEDGE HAS BECOME SATURATED. TERMINALS ON THE
EDGE OF THE WEDGE...KAND AND KGMU HAVE REMAINED VFR...BUT EXPECT
DETERIORATING CIGS OR VSBY BY MID MORNING AS A BAND OF PRECIP WILL
MOVE INTO THE SW/RN UPSTATE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. MFVR TO
IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHILE
THE WEDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN. GUSTY CONDS SHOULD DEVELOP AFT 02Z AT
MOST SITES...WITH KHKY HAVING THE LEAST CHANCE OF SIGFNT GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION BY MID
WEEK...BRINGING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     GAZ010-017.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ033-049-050-053-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     SCZ001>003.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...SBK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>005-
172000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-AVERY-ALEXANDER-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
354 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON MONDAY
AND UP THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO FALL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE LOW MOVES PAST...PARTICULARLY
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...CAUSING SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND
STREAMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HEADWATERS OF THE FRENCH BROAD
RIVER. IF CONFIDENCE IN THE RAINFALL FORECAST CONTINUES TO
INCREASE...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR ALL OR PART OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ026-028-029-NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ006>014-019-172000-
FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
354 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON MONDAY
AND UP THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
LATE IN THE DAY...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY THAT
COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COULD
ALLOW SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE PIEDMONT. THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT
AND THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL DETERMINE THE NATURE AND SCOPE
OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MOST OF THE
STORMS WILL NOT BECOME SEVERE UNTIL THEY ARE OVER THE MIDLANDS AND
SANDHILLS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY LATE TUESDAY
EVENING...ENDING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

MOORE