Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Watches in 2012
Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this flash flood watch at May 15, 2012, 10:54 AM EDT for 23 counties in North Carolina; Cherokee County, York County, South Carolina. It took effect at May 15, 2012, 12:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 16 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- May 15, 2012, 10:54 AM EDT (14:54 UTC)
- In effect from
- May 15, 2012, 12:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- May 16, 2012, 4:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 16 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
- Flood severity
- None
All 25 counties
Alexander County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Union County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Cherokee County, SC, York County, SC
The radar
The Greer radar (KGSP), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 2.9 hours before the alert went out and 162 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 24 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -114 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 532 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 26 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 60 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 55 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
246 WGUS62 KGSP 151454 FFAGSP URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1054 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012 ...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AGAIN TODAY... .A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN. MANY AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN IN RECENT DAYS. WITH STREAM LEVELS RUNNING HIGH...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510- SCZ002-003-005>009-152300- /O.NEW.KGSP.FF.A.0002.120515T1600Z-120516T0800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE- CATAWBA-ROWAN-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON- MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL- BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS- EASTERN POLK-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS- GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE... SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE...HICKORY...SALISBURY...BREVARD... HENDERSONVILLE...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE... CONCORD...MONROE...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE... RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY... ROCK HILL 1054 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CAROLINA...ALEXANDER...AVERY...BURKE MOUNTAINS...BUNCOMBE... CALDWELL MOUNTAINS...CABARRUS...CATAWBA...CLEVELAND...DAVIE... EASTERN MCDOWELL...EASTERN POLK...GREATER BURKE...GREATER CALDWELL...GREATER RUTHERFORD...GASTON...HENDERSON... IREDELL...LINCOLN...MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS...MADISON... MECKLENBURG...MITCHELL...POLK MOUNTAINS...RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS...ROWAN...TRANSYLVANIA...UNION NC AND YANCEY. IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...CHEROKEE...GREATER GREENVILLE... GREATER PICKENS...GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS...PICKENS MOUNTAINS... SPARTANBURG AND YORK. * THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. * THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GROUND IS NEARLY SATURATED IN MANY AREAS WITH STREAM LEVELS RUNNING HIGH. THEREFORE...FLASH FLOODING COULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY AFTER THE ONSET OF HEAVY RAIN. * STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TODAY. HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH CONCERN FOR MAIN STEM RIVERS...THOUGH SMALLER RIVERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS COULD ALSO BE PUSHED INTO FLOOD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$ MCAVOY
3 follow-up statements
424 WGUS62 KGSP 151838 FFAGSP FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 238 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012 ...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS... .A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING... AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN. MANY AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN IN RECENT DAYS...AND WITH STREAM LEVELS RUNNING HIGH...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510- SCZ002-003-005>009-160800- /O.CON.KGSP.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-120516T0800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE- CATAWBA-ROWAN-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON- MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL- BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS- EASTERN POLK-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS- GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE... SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE...HICKORY...SALISBURY...BREVARD... HENDERSONVILLE...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE... CONCORD...MONROE...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE... RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY... ROCK HILL 238 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CAROLINA... ALEXANDER...AVERY...BURKE MOUNTAINS...BUNCOMBE...CALDWELL MOUNTAINS...CABARRUS...CATAWBA...CLEVELAND...DAVIE...EASTERN MCDOWELL...EASTERN POLK...GREATER BURKE...GREATER CALDWELL... GREATER RUTHERFORD...GASTON...HENDERSON...IREDELL...LINCOLN... MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS...MADISON...MECKLENBURG...MITCHELL...POLK MOUNTAINS...RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS...ROWAN...TRANSYLVANIA... UNION NC AND YANCEY. IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...CHEROKEE... GREATER GREENVILLE...GREATER PICKENS...GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS... PICKENS MOUNTAINS...SPARTANBURG AND YORK. * THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. * THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE GROUND IS NEARLY SATURATED IN MANY AREAS WITH STREAM LEVELS RUNNING HIGH. THEREFORE...FLASH FLOODING COULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY AFTER THE ONSET OF HEAVY RAIN. * STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH CONCERN FOR MAIN STEM RIVERS...THOUGH SMALLER RIVERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS COULD ALSO BE PUSHED INTO FLOOD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$ MCAVOY
343 WGUS62 KGSP 160058 FFAGSP FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 858 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012 ...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT... .A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN A FEW PLACES. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY...AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. MANY AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN IN RECENT DAYS. WITH STREAM LEVELS RUNNING HIGH...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510- SCZ002-003-005>009-160800- /O.CON.KGSP.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-120516T0800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE- CATAWBA-ROWAN-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON- MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL- BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS- EASTERN POLK-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS- GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE... SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE...HICKORY...SALISBURY...BREVARD... HENDERSONVILLE...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE... CONCORD...MONROE...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE... RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY... ROCK HILL 858 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CAROLINA... ALEXANDER...AVERY...BURKE MOUNTAINS...BUNCOMBE...CALDWELL MOUNTAINS...CABARRUS...CATAWBA...CLEVELAND...DAVIE...EASTERN MCDOWELL...EASTERN POLK...GREATER BURKE...GREATER CALDWELL... GREATER RUTHERFORD...GASTON...HENDERSON...IREDELL...LINCOLN... MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS...MADISON...MECKLENBURG...MITCHELL...POLK MOUNTAINS...RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS...ROWAN...TRANSYLVANIA... UNION NC AND YANCEY. IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...CHEROKEE... GREATER GREENVILLE...GREATER PICKENS...GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS... PICKENS MOUNTAINS...SPARTANBURG AND YORK. * UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY. * THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS LATE THIS EVENING...INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GROUND IS NEARLY SATURATED IN MANY AREAS...WITH STREAM LEVELS RUNNING HIGH. THEREFORE...FLASH FLOODING COULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY AFTER THE ONSET OF ANY HEAVY RAIN. * STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH CONCERN FOR MAIN STEM RIVERS...THOUGH SMALLER RIVERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS COULD ALSO BE PUSHED INTO FLOOD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$ GERAPETRITIS
889 WGUS62 KGSP 160736 FFAGSP FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 336 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012 NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510- SCZ002-003-005>009-160845- /O.EXP.KGSP.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-120516T0800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE- CATAWBA-ROWAN-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON- MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL- BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS- EASTERN POLK-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS- GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE... SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE...HICKORY...SALISBURY...BREVARD... HENDERSONVILLE...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE... CONCORD...MONROE...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE... RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY... ROCK HILL 336 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM EDT THIS MORNING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM EDT THIS MORNING. SHOWERS HAVE WEAKENED AND HEAVIER...MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at May 15, 7:27 AM EDT, 3 hours 27 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 15, 7:27 AM EDT, 3 hours 27 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 727 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A BROAD AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 0650 AM...LOWERED POPS TO BETTER FIT CURRENT TRENDS HOLDING ON TO JUST A SLIGHT CHC EARLY THIS MRNG. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE EARLY THIS MRNG. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER TROF TO THE W AND OVER THE CWA AGAIN TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND AFTER A CLOUDY MRNG THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER FOR TEMPS TO WARM TO NEAR AVG THIS AFTN. EXPECT POPS TO RAMP UP TO SLIGHT CHC FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER THE MTNS THIS MRNG WITH A SOLID CHC ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTN-EVE. CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED WITH BULK SHEAR AROUND 30KT. PWATS REMAIN ABOVE AVG AND LOW LVL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE. NOT ONLY IS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTN-EVE...ESP THE E ZONES...BUT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS WELL. SINCE IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE HYDRO THREAT IN THE HWO AND ISSUE A SHORT-FUSED FLOOD WATCH LATER TODAY IF NEEDED. CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH COOLING LATER THIS EVE BUT WE HELD ON TO A SLIGHT CHC OF SHWRS OVERNIGHT. MRNG LOWS WILL BE ABOVE AVG. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BROADEN AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWFA WED WHILE A WEAK LLVL BOUNDARY PERSISTS ACROSS REGION. A GOOD AMOUNT OF VORT ENERGY WILL CROSS OVERHEAD ABOUT THE TIME THE LLVLS BECOME RATHER UNSTABLE IN GOOD AFTERNOON HEATING. A RESPECTABLE SBCAPE OF 1.5K J/KG NON/MTNS AND 2.2K J/KG MTNS IS NOTED WHILE BULK SHEAR REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. HOWEVER...THE LOW DEEP LAYERED SHEAR DID NOT PREVENT THE FORMATION OF TORNADOES YESTERDAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS THE UPPER FORCING AND DEEP CAPE WERE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE VERY STRONG AND LONG LIVED UPDRAFTS. SO...WED SHOULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER. THERE IS LITTLE STORM POTENTIAL AFTER SUNSET AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS MAKES IT SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA BY 03Z. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE ABOUT A CAT ABOVE NORMAL. ON THURSDAY...THE CWFA WILL REMAIN IN A BROAD CYCLONIC TROF...WITH THE BEST FORCING OFF TO THE EAST. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MTNS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SBCAPE WILL BE REALIZED WITH TD POOLING. ALONG WITH GOOD SFC CONV...THE MTNS WILL BE THE PRIME SPOT FOR ANY TSTMS. THERE WILL BE DISTINCT POCKET OF DNVA PUSHING INTO THE MTNS AROUND 18Z...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER EXISTS...WHICH WOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS CAPPED. POPS WERE BUMPED A LITTLE TO CHANCE ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS AND MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. MAX/MIN TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE A CAT OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXT RANGE FCST. STILL A GOOD BET THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FRI AND CROSS EAST OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT MON. THE SFC PATTERN IS SHOWING A WELL MAINTAINED HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE E/LY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS AND TD/S DOWN A BIT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDER OUTSIDE THE MTNS. HOWEVER...WITH THE MECH LIFT THE MTNS SHOULD EXPERIENCE ISOL DIURNAL SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON WITH A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG SUB INVERSION DEVELOPING AROUND H6 LATE FRI AND LOWERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY LLVL CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE A HARD TIME BECOMING VERY DEEP. SOME MEASURE OF A CP AIRMASS MIX WILL OCCUR FRI...MAINLY NORTH...BUT THE OVERALL DEEP RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR VERY GOOD INSOLATION AND MAX TEMPS ABOUT 1 TO 2 CATS ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AT KCLT...SIMILAR SCENARIO TO YESTERDAY. IFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY 15Z WITH MIXING...THEN LOW VFR BY 16Z...PSBLY SOONER. COULD SEE BREAKS IN THE AFTN WHICH WILL AID HEATING. EXPECT SCT TSTMS AFT 18Z WHICH IS TOO LOW A CHC TO MENTION IN TAF ATTM...BUT DID INCLUDE VCSH. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT SW. ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT ACROSS PIEDMONT. DUE TO BETTER CHC TS OVER MTNS...AT KAVL...DID INCLUDE VCTS AND CB CLOUDS 18-00Z. ALSO EXPECT IFR AT KAVL...KHKY AND KAND EARLY WED MRNG. OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EARLY WED BEFORE SOME DRYING WED AFTN. MAINLY VFR THEN. EXPECT ISOLD LATE DAY...MAINLY MTN...SHOWERS AND TSTMS THRU LATE WEEK. MRNG FOG PSBL...ESPLY MTN VALLEYS AND NEAR LAKES/RIVERS. AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...SBK NEAR TERM...RB SHORT TERM...SBK LONG TERM...SBK AVIATION...RB
Hazardous weather outlook, May 15, 5:21 AM EDT, 5 hours 33 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 521 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065- 068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-160930- RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER- IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA- ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA- HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC- CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE- MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS- GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS- PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE- GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK- ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- 521 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OR SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 85...AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. KRENTZ
In the hours before
Local storm report, May 15, 9:25 AM EDT, 1 hour 29 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
925 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 ESE HENDERSONVILLE 35.31N 82.43W
05/14/2012 HENDERSON NC EMERGENCY MNGR
BAT FORK CREEK FLOODED A PORTION OF AIRPORT RD.
&&
CSHLocal storm report, May 15, 9:31 AM EDT, 1 hour 23 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
931 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 NNE NEWTON 35.73N 81.19W
05/14/2012 CATAWBA NC EMERGENCY MNGR
LYLE CREEK COVERED A PORTION OF ST JOHNS CHURCH RD.
1230 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 NNE CLAREMONT 35.75N 81.13W
05/14/2012 CATAWBA NC EMERGENCY MNGR
A TRIBUTARY OF LYLE CREEK FLOODED CROSSING CREEK ROAD TO
A DEPTH OF 18 INCHES.
1230 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 NNW CLAREMONT 35.76N 81.17W
05/14/2012 CATAWBA NC EMERGENCY MNGR
A TRIBUTARY OF LYLE CREEK FLOODED PORTIONS OF COMMUNITY
AND RIVERBEND ROADS.
&&
CSHLocal storm report, May 15, 9:45 AM EDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
945 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0830 PM HAIL 3 WNW MONROE 35.00N 80.60W
05/14/2012 E1.00 INCH UNION NC COCORAHS
1 INCH HAIL REPORTED WNW OF MONROE.
&&
JPTThe office that day
Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 8:08 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Cleveland, Gaston | 37 min |
| May 14, 8:13 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Iredell | 47 min |
| May 14, 8:23 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Union | 52 min |
| May 14, 8:38 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Iredell, Rowan | 112 min |
| May 14, 9:44 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | GSP | Alexander, Caldwell, Iredell | 4 hr |
| May 15, 3:51 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Henderson | 24 min |
| May 15, 4:11 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | McDowell | 34 min |
| May 15, 4:25 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Henderson, Rutherford | 36 min |
| May 15, 4:46 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Avery | 44 min |
| May 15, 4:54 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Macon | 51 min |
| May 15, 5:10 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Mitchell, Yancey | 80 min |
| May 15, 5:16 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Swain | 29 min |
| May 15, 6:55 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Transylvania | 50 min |
| May 15, 7:47 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Cabarrus | 28 min |
| May 15, 7:51 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Cabarrus | 54 min |
| May 14, 8:21 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Anderson | 39 min |
| May 14, 8:30 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Anderson, Greenville, Pickens | 60 min |
| May 14, 8:34 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | York | 41 min |
| May 14, 9:34 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Spartanburg | 41 min |
| May 14, 9:56 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Laurens | 49 min |
| May 14, 10:08 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Cherokee | 37 min |
| May 14, 10:22 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | York | 38 min |
| May 14, 11:00 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | York | 45 min |
| May 14, 11:33 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Laurens | 42 min |
| May 14, 11:45 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Union | 45 min |
| May 14, 11:58 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Chester, York | 47 min |
| May 15, 12:57 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Greenwood, Laurens | 3 hr |
| May 15, 12:58 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Chester, York | 4 hr |
| May 15, 1:33 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Laurens | 42 min |
| May 15, 2:28 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Chester, Laurens, Union | 4 hr |
| May 15, 3:02 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Cherokee, Spartanburg | 39 min |
| May 15, 4:06 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Union | 24 min |
| May 15, 6:34 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Union | 41 min |
| May 15, 7:44 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Pickens | 61 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Watches in North Carolina, 2012Flash Flood Watches in South Carolina, 2012Every flash flood watch in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.