Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Watches in 2012

Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

May 15, 201223 counties in North Carolina; Cherokee County, York County, South Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this flash flood watch at May 15, 2012, 10:54 AM EDT for 23 counties in North Carolina; Cherokee County, York County, South Carolina. It took effect at May 15, 2012, 12:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 16 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 15, 2012, 10:54 AM EDT (14:54 UTC)
In effect from
May 15, 2012, 12:00 PM EDT
Expired
May 16, 2012, 4:00 AM EDT
In force
16 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Flood severity
None
All 25 counties

Alexander County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Union County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Cherokee County, SC, York County, SC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 2.9 hours before the alert went out and 162 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2012-05-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 24 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2012-05-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 60 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
24 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-114 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
532 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
60 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
55 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

246 
WGUS62 KGSP 151454
FFAGSP

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1054 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AGAIN TODAY...

.A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...AND
SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN. MANY AREAS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN IN RECENT DAYS. WITH
STREAM LEVELS RUNNING HIGH...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ002-003-005>009-152300-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FF.A.0002.120515T1600Z-120516T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...
SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE...HICKORY...SALISBURY...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...
CONCORD...MONROE...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE...
RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...
ROCK HILL
1054 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE 
  SOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH 
  CAROLINA...ALEXANDER...AVERY...BURKE MOUNTAINS...BUNCOMBE... 
  CALDWELL MOUNTAINS...CABARRUS...CATAWBA...CLEVELAND...DAVIE... 
  EASTERN MCDOWELL...EASTERN POLK...GREATER BURKE...GREATER 
  CALDWELL...GREATER RUTHERFORD...GASTON...HENDERSON... 
  IREDELL...LINCOLN...MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS...MADISON... 
  MECKLENBURG...MITCHELL...POLK MOUNTAINS...RUTHERFORD 
  MOUNTAINS...ROWAN...TRANSYLVANIA...UNION NC AND YANCEY. IN 
  UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...CHEROKEE...GREATER GREENVILLE... 
  GREATER PICKENS...GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS...PICKENS MOUNTAINS... 
  SPARTANBURG AND YORK. 

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. 

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
  INCHES AN HOUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GROUND IS
  NEARLY SATURATED IN MANY AREAS WITH STREAM LEVELS RUNNING HIGH.
  THEREFORE...FLASH FLOODING COULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY AFTER THE ONSET
  OF HEAVY RAIN.

* STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
  FLOODING TODAY. HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD
  ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH CONCERN FOR MAIN STEM RIVERS...THOUGH
  SMALLER RIVERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS COULD ALSO BE
  PUSHED INTO FLOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

MCAVOY
3 follow-up statements
424 
WGUS62 KGSP 151838
FFAGSP

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
238 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS...

.A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...
AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN. MANY AREAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN IN RECENT
DAYS...AND WITH STREAM LEVELS RUNNING HIGH...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ002-003-005>009-160800-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-120516T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...
SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE...HICKORY...SALISBURY...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...
CONCORD...MONROE...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE...
RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...
ROCK HILL
238 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CAROLINA... 
  ALEXANDER...AVERY...BURKE MOUNTAINS...BUNCOMBE...CALDWELL 
  MOUNTAINS...CABARRUS...CATAWBA...CLEVELAND...DAVIE...EASTERN 
  MCDOWELL...EASTERN POLK...GREATER BURKE...GREATER CALDWELL... 
  GREATER RUTHERFORD...GASTON...HENDERSON...IREDELL...LINCOLN... 
  MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS...MADISON...MECKLENBURG...MITCHELL...POLK 
  MOUNTAINS...RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS...ROWAN...TRANSYLVANIA... 
  UNION NC AND YANCEY. IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...CHEROKEE... 
  GREATER GREENVILLE...GREATER PICKENS...GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS... 
  PICKENS MOUNTAINS...SPARTANBURG AND YORK. 

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. 

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
  INCHES AN HOUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE GROUND IS
  NEARLY SATURATED IN MANY AREAS WITH STREAM LEVELS RUNNING HIGH.
  THEREFORE...FLASH FLOODING COULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY AFTER THE ONSET
  OF HEAVY RAIN.

* STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
  FLOODING. HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
  CAUSE MUCH CONCERN FOR MAIN STEM RIVERS...THOUGH SMALLER RIVERS
  IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS COULD ALSO BE PUSHED INTO FLOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

MCAVOY
343 
WGUS62 KGSP 160058
FFAGSP

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
858 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT...

.A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN A FEW PLACES. THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY...AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED 1 TO 2 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS. MANY AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN IN RECENT DAYS. WITH STREAM LEVELS RUNNING
HIGH...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING.

NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ002-003-005>009-160800-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-120516T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...
SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE...HICKORY...SALISBURY...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...
CONCORD...MONROE...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE...
RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...
ROCK HILL
858 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CAROLINA... 
  ALEXANDER...AVERY...BURKE MOUNTAINS...BUNCOMBE...CALDWELL 
  MOUNTAINS...CABARRUS...CATAWBA...CLEVELAND...DAVIE...EASTERN 
  MCDOWELL...EASTERN POLK...GREATER BURKE...GREATER CALDWELL... 
  GREATER RUTHERFORD...GASTON...HENDERSON...IREDELL...LINCOLN... 
  MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS...MADISON...MECKLENBURG...MITCHELL...POLK 
  MOUNTAINS...RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS...ROWAN...TRANSYLVANIA... 
  UNION NC AND YANCEY. IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...CHEROKEE... 
  GREATER GREENVILLE...GREATER PICKENS...GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS... 
  PICKENS MOUNTAINS...SPARTANBURG AND YORK. 

* UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY. 

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2
  INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS LATE THIS EVENING...INTO EARLY
  WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GROUND IS NEARLY SATURATED IN MANY
  AREAS...WITH STREAM LEVELS RUNNING HIGH. THEREFORE...FLASH
  FLOODING COULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY AFTER THE ONSET OF ANY HEAVY
  RAIN.

* STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO 
  FLASH FLOODING. HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD 
  ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH CONCERN FOR MAIN STEM RIVERS...THOUGH 
  SMALLER RIVERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS COULD ALSO BE 
  PUSHED INTO FLOOD. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

GERAPETRITIS
889 
WGUS62 KGSP 160736
FFAGSP

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ002-003-005>009-160845-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-120516T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...
SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE...HICKORY...SALISBURY...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...
CONCORD...MONROE...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE...
RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...
ROCK HILL
336 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM EDT THIS MORNING. SHOWERS HAVE
WEAKENED AND HEAVIER...MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
TAPER OFF AND MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at May 15, 7:27 AM EDT, 3 hours 27 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 15, 7:27 AM EDT, 3 hours 27 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
727 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 0650 AM...LOWERED POPS TO BETTER FIT CURRENT TRENDS HOLDING ON
TO JUST A SLIGHT CHC EARLY THIS MRNG. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE
EARLY THIS MRNG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH
THE MEAN UPPER TROF TO THE W AND OVER THE CWA AGAIN TODAY. DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND AFTER A CLOUDY MRNG THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER FOR TEMPS TO WARM TO NEAR AVG THIS
AFTN. EXPECT POPS TO RAMP UP TO SLIGHT CHC FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER THE
MTNS THIS MRNG WITH A SOLID CHC ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTN-EVE. CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED WITH BULK SHEAR
AROUND 30KT. PWATS REMAIN ABOVE AVG AND LOW LVL LAPSE RATES WILL
INCREASE. NOT ONLY IS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS AGAIN
THIS AFTN-EVE...ESP THE E ZONES...BUT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS WELL.
SINCE IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL BE WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE HYDRO THREAT IN THE HWO
AND ISSUE A SHORT-FUSED FLOOD WATCH LATER TODAY IF NEEDED.
CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH COOLING LATER THIS EVE BUT WE HELD
ON TO A SLIGHT CHC OF SHWRS OVERNIGHT. MRNG LOWS WILL BE ABOVE AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BROADEN AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CWFA WED WHILE A WEAK LLVL BOUNDARY PERSISTS ACROSS
REGION. A GOOD AMOUNT OF VORT ENERGY WILL CROSS OVERHEAD ABOUT THE
TIME THE LLVLS BECOME RATHER UNSTABLE IN GOOD AFTERNOON HEATING. A
RESPECTABLE SBCAPE OF 1.5K J/KG NON/MTNS AND 2.2K J/KG MTNS IS NOTED
WHILE BULK SHEAR REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. HOWEVER...THE LOW DEEP LAYERED
SHEAR DID NOT PREVENT THE FORMATION OF TORNADOES YESTERDAY ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AS THE UPPER FORCING AND DEEP CAPE WERE STRONG ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE VERY STRONG AND LONG LIVED UPDRAFTS. SO...WED SHOULD SEE
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER. THERE IS LITTLE STORM POTENTIAL AFTER
SUNSET AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS MAKES IT SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA BY 03Z.
HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE ABOUT A CAT ABOVE NORMAL.

ON THURSDAY...THE CWFA WILL REMAIN IN A BROAD CYCLONIC TROF...WITH
THE BEST FORCING OFF TO THE EAST. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
MTNS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SBCAPE WILL BE
REALIZED WITH TD POOLING. ALONG WITH GOOD SFC CONV...THE MTNS WILL
BE THE PRIME SPOT FOR ANY TSTMS. THERE WILL BE DISTINCT POCKET OF
DNVA PUSHING INTO THE MTNS AROUND 18Z...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A MID
LEVEL WARM LAYER EXISTS...WHICH WOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS CAPPED. POPS WERE BUMPED A LITTLE TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
RIDGETOPS AND MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. MAX/MIN TEMPS
AGAIN WILL BE A CAT OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXT RANGE FCST.
STILL A GOOD BET THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FRI AND CROSS
EAST OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT MON. THE
SFC PATTERN IS SHOWING A WELL MAINTAINED HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE E/LY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS AND TD/S DOWN A BIT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDER OUTSIDE THE
MTNS. HOWEVER...WITH THE MECH LIFT THE MTNS SHOULD EXPERIENCE ISOL
DIURNAL SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON WITH A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG SUB INVERSION DEVELOPING AROUND H6 LATE
FRI AND LOWERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY LLVL CONVECTION SHOULD
HAVE A HARD TIME BECOMING VERY DEEP. SOME MEASURE OF A CP AIRMASS
MIX WILL OCCUR FRI...MAINLY NORTH...BUT THE OVERALL DEEP RIDGING
WILL ALLOW FOR VERY GOOD INSOLATION AND MAX TEMPS ABOUT 1 TO 2 CATS
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...SIMILAR SCENARIO TO YESTERDAY. IFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO
MVFR BY 15Z WITH MIXING...THEN LOW VFR BY 16Z...PSBLY SOONER. COULD
SEE BREAKS IN THE AFTN WHICH WILL AID HEATING. EXPECT SCT TSTMS AFT
18Z WHICH IS TOO LOW A CHC TO MENTION IN TAF ATTM...BUT DID INCLUDE
VCSH. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT SW.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT ACROSS PIEDMONT. DUE TO BETTER CHC TS
OVER MTNS...AT KAVL...DID INCLUDE VCTS AND CB CLOUDS 18-00Z. ALSO
EXPECT IFR AT KAVL...KHKY AND KAND EARLY WED MRNG.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EARLY WED
BEFORE SOME DRYING WED AFTN. MAINLY VFR THEN. EXPECT ISOLD LATE
DAY...MAINLY MTN...SHOWERS AND TSTMS THRU LATE WEEK. MRNG FOG
PSBL...ESPLY MTN VALLEYS AND NEAR LAKES/RIVERS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...RB
Hazardous weather outlook, May 15, 5:21 AM EDT, 5 hours 33 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
521 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-160930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
521 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
RESULT IN FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OR SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 85...AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

KRENTZ

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 15, 9:25 AM EDT, 1 hour 29 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
925 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 ESE HENDERSONVILLE    35.31N 82.43W
05/14/2012                   HENDERSON          NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BAT FORK CREEK FLOODED A PORTION OF AIRPORT RD.

&&

CSH
Local storm report, May 15, 9:31 AM EDT, 1 hour 23 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
931 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NNE NEWTON            35.73N 81.19W
05/14/2012                   CATAWBA            NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LYLE CREEK COVERED A PORTION OF ST JOHNS CHURCH RD.

1230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NNE CLAREMONT         35.75N 81.13W
05/14/2012                   CATAWBA            NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TRIBUTARY OF LYLE CREEK FLOODED CROSSING CREEK ROAD TO
            A DEPTH OF 18 INCHES.

1230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NNW CLAREMONT         35.76N 81.17W
05/14/2012                   CATAWBA            NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TRIBUTARY OF LYLE CREEK FLOODED PORTIONS OF COMMUNITY
            AND RIVERBEND ROADS.

&&

CSH
Local storm report, May 15, 9:45 AM EDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
945 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             3 WNW MONROE            35.00N 80.60W
05/14/2012  E1.00 INCH       UNION              NC   COCORAHS

            1 INCH HAIL REPORTED WNW OF MONROE.

&&

JPT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 14, 8:08 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPCleveland, Gaston37 min
May 14, 8:13 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPIredell47 min
May 14, 8:23 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPUnion52 min
May 14, 8:38 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPIredell, Rowan112 min
May 14, 9:44 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPAlexander, Caldwell, Iredell4 hr
May 15, 3:51 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPHenderson24 min
May 15, 4:11 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPMcDowell34 min
May 15, 4:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPHenderson, Rutherford36 min
May 15, 4:46 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPAvery44 min
May 15, 4:54 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPMacon51 min
May 15, 5:10 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPMitchell, Yancey80 min
May 15, 5:16 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPSwain29 min
May 15, 6:55 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPTransylvania50 min
May 15, 7:47 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPCabarrus28 min
May 15, 7:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPCabarrus54 min
May 14, 8:21 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPAnderson39 min
May 14, 8:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPAnderson, Greenville, Pickens60 min
May 14, 8:34 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPYork41 min
May 14, 9:34 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPSpartanburg41 min
May 14, 9:56 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPLaurens49 min
May 14, 10:08 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPCherokee37 min
May 14, 10:22 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPYork38 min
May 14, 11:00 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPYork45 min
May 14, 11:33 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPLaurens42 min
May 14, 11:45 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPUnion45 min
May 14, 11:58 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPChester, York47 min
May 15, 12:57 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPGreenwood, Laurens3 hr
May 15, 12:58 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPChester, York4 hr
May 15, 1:33 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPLaurens42 min
May 15, 2:28 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPChester, Laurens, Union4 hr
May 15, 3:02 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPCherokee, Spartanburg39 min
May 15, 4:06 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPUnion24 min
May 15, 6:34 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPUnion41 min
May 15, 7:44 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPPickens61 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in North Carolina, 2012Flash Flood Watches in South Carolina, 2012Every flash flood watch in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.