Areal Flood Warning 1, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
800 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM...THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN BY A PASSING
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING FROM THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE NC PIEDMONT.
WITH NO REPORTS OF MTN FLOODING AT THIS POINT AND ONLY LIGHT
STRATIFORM RAIN THERE...WILL CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH FOR BURNSVILLE
TO ASHEVILLE...BUT LEAVE IT UP FROM HENDERSON THROUGH THE FOOTHILLS
UNTIL WE ARE SURE THERE IS NO ADDITIONAL FLOODING THERE. SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IS ONGOING IN THE NC FOOTHILLS...AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO NO
CHANGES IN THE WATCH THERE.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THE WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA WITH ONLY ISOLD TO SCT LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG
SHOULD EASILY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER MOST AREAS.

ON TUE...THE DAY WILL BEGIN CLOUDY WITH A CONTINUED LULL IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...WITH A LITTLE MORE OF A SW COMPONENT TO THE WIND
FIELD THE LOW CLOUDINESS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BY MIDDAY. WITH THE INSOLATION AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER WEAK
SHORT WAVE...SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUDNERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT AS HIGH
DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP. USED A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MAX TEMPS
ON TUE WHICH CALLS FOR TEMPS TO TOP OUT NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...ON WEDNESDAY...THE AXIS OF A H5 TROF WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SFC...A LEE TROF WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE MID LEVEL TROF PASSES
AND LLVL WINDS REMAIN NORTHWEST AND DOWNSLOPE ACROSS THE EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE MTNS. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MILD
TEMPS BETWEEN H8 TO H6 WITH VERY SHALLOW MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY FAVOR VALUES BETWEEN 500 TO 1000
J/KG...WITH WEAK LLVL CIN VALUES. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK LLVL
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE LEE TROF AND RIDGETOP HEATING MAY TRIGGER A
FEW SHRA/TSRA DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...I WILL INDICATE
SCHC POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. USING A BLEND OF MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 70S
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO L80S EAST.

ON THURSDAY...A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SLIP SOUTHWARD INTO THE NC ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALOFT...SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVEL TROF MAY REMAIN OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF TO A WEAK LOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK SFC COLD FRONT AND LOW MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS I EXPECT AN INCREASE IN LLVL CONVERGENCE AND AMOUNTS
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY. I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN FOR SHRA/TSRA AND LATE AFTERNOON SCHC EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD VERIFY VERY CLOSE TO WEDNESDAY OBSERVED VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF NOON MONDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN THE EXTENDED RANGE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY. BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE A MID LEVEL TROF
ACROSS THE WESTERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS. THE WESTERN TROF WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH
THE PERIOD ACROSS THE NRN CONUS...RESULTING IN RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE MID
LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
IN PLACE...RESULTING IN GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DAILY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...RANGING AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL NOT FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION. BASED OF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...I WILL ADVERTISE LATE AFTERNOON SCHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE MTNS...DRY EAST. A COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE ACROSS THE MTNS
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT....POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRAVERSE THE NC PIEDMONT
THROUGH 02Z. TSTMS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME W TO NW WIND GUSTS WITH
PASSAGE AS WELL AS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS...BUT BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. AFTER THE
TSTM PASSAGE...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS BECOMING IFR OVERNIGHT WITH
THE GROUND VERY MOIST. PROFILES SHOW SLOW AND STEADY RECOVERY TO VFR
BY LATE TUE MORNING...WITH PROB30 FOR TSTMS AGAIN TUE AFTN. ASIDE
FROM ANY TSTMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHTLY SRLY.

ELSEWHERE...TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ABOUT AN HOUR AT KAND AND
KHKY...BUT TSRA SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE OTHER TAF SITES AT ISSUANCE
TIME. CANNOT RULE OUT VCSH THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN THE
MOIST BL...BUT THE UPPER SHORTWAVE SHOULD HAVE PASSED TO THE NE.
EXPECT CIGS TO DESCEND TO MVFR BY 04Z TO 06Z...WITH IFR LIKELY 08Z
TO 09Z. CIGS SHOULD STEADILY RECOVER TO VFR THROUGH LATE
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF VCTS LIKELY TUE AFTN IN CONTINUED
MOIST S TO SW FLOW WITH IMPROVING INSTABILITY.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO LINGER INTO
TUE NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EARLY WED
BEFORE SOME DRYING WED AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR THEN. THERE WILL BE
MAINLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THRU LATE WEEK.
MRNG FOG PSBL...MAINLY MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND NEAR LAKES/RIVERS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ035>037-056-
     057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WINESETT
NEAR TERM...HG/LG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG/LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
808 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>064-SCZ001>014-
019-160015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
808 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD RESULT IN
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OR SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510-160015-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
808 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD RESULT IN
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OR SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
821 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

SCZ005-010-150100-
ANDERSON-GREATER PICKENS-
821 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ANDERSON AND SOUTHERN
PICKENS COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM EDT...

AT 821 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CENTRAL...OR 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLEMSON...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LIBERTY...
  PIEDMONT...

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3463 8285 3464 8283 3470 8286 3481 8285
      3482 8248 3477 8245 3475 8246 3468 8245
      3467 8247 3459 8243

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
834 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

NCZ071-SCZ009-150115-
MECKLENBURG-YORK-
834 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN YORK AND SOUTHWESTERN
MECKLENBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM EDT...

AT 835 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF ROCK HILL...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ROCK HILL...
  TEGA CAY...
  LAKE WYLIE...
  FORT MILL...
  CAROWINDS...
  PINEVILLE...

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3500 8084 3505 8089 3501 8090 3495 8086
      3493 8086 3485 8114 3502 8122 3519 8090
      3501 8082

HG

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