Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
337 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

THE HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROLLING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN GENERATING SCATTERED STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING INTO THE 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY/TONIGHT.
* SLIGHT RISK TODAY SOUTH OF A WHITEHALL TO CLARE LINE

AN ACTIVE RADAR THIS MORNING. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS INSTABILITY
INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA AS A DECAYING MCS TRIES TO MOVE FROM
WISCONSIN OVER TO CENTRAL LOWER. STORMS RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM
NEWAYGO COUNTY NEWD INTO OSCEOLA COUNTY CLOSE TO THE VERY SLOWLY
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN JUST BELOW SVR
LIMITS WITH ONE QUARTER INCH HAIL BEING REPORTED. WEAK SHEAR IS
LIMITING SVR POTENTIAL.

WE/LL SEE A VERY JUICY AIR MASS TODAY AND A SHORT WAVE OVER
MINNESOTA WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT
WAVE ALONG WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE BY...SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A SVR STORM COULD
DEVELOP TOO AS SHEAR INCREASES TO 25 TO 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SPC
PAINTED A SLIGHT RISK SOUTH OF A WHITEHALL TO CLARE LINE TODAY.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO COME OVER THE CENTRAL US RIDGE
TONIGHT. AS SUCH WE MAINTAINED THE GOING CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

HOT AND HUMID WX WILL CONTINUE WED/THU WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.
HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE NOSES TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN...SHORT WAVES WILL
BE DIVERTED NWD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOWER POPS OVER THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN GET SHUNTED
WEST AS TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER EASTERN CANADA. LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MAXES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AS CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING AND LOCATION SO WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE AVIATION FORECAST DEALS WITH THE RISK
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR HAZE/FOG. THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN LOWER WI...MAY TRY
TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT. I WILL
MAINTAIN THE VCTS WORDING. THE MAIN TIMEFRAME WILL BE AFTER 08Z.

WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF HAZE/FOG OUT FOR NOW. WHILE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...NOT ENOUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
PRESENT TO LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS IN THE VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE RELATIVELY TAME
DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

PWATS CLOSING IN ON 2 INCHES SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS A
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>