Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

331 
WWUS53 KGRR 031937
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
337 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

MIC127-032000-
/O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-120503T2000Z/
OCEANA MI-
337 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OCEANA COUNTY
UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 333 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES EAST OF
PENTWATER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST OF 
LITTLE SABLE POINT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OCEANA 
COUNTY THROUGH 400 PM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PENTWATER...          SHELBY...            
  SILVER LAKE STATE PARK...                   CRYSTAL VALLEY...
  FERRY...              ELBRIDGE...           MEARS...
  STONY LAKE...         NEW ERA...            LITTLE POINT SABLE...
  ROTHBURY...           WALKERVILLE...        HART...
  WEARE...              COLFAX...             ST. HUBERTS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE
ROAD.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4375 8647 4382 8644 4382 8643 4382 8604
      4347 8604 4347 8646 4360 8654 4366 8655
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 240DEG 42KT 4375 8619
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

TJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
122 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

NUMEROUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT IS SITUATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL OCCASIONALLY BRING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH MILD AIR. A FEW OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE RAINFALL SHOULD CLEAR SOUTH
OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

UPDATED REFLECTS ADDITION OF SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 22Z.
BOW ECHO MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ONSHORE NORTH
OF PENTWATER. THE NRN ROWS MAY BE CLIPPED BY THIS STORM. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS 45-55KS BULK
SHEAR AVAILABLE ACROSS THE FAR NRN CWA. SHEAR RAPIDLY FALLS OFF
SOUTH OF THERE. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY RAPIDLY INCREASES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SRN CWA WHERE LI/S HAVE FALLEN TO -8C. IT/S POSSIBLE
THAT ANOTHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AS
THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SET UP OVER THE
AREA AND SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THE CONVECTION TODAY.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS EXPECTED AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT APPROACHES.
ONE MCV IN CENTRAL WI COULD CAUSE THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS TO HIT
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH SAW VERY HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT.
ANOTHER MCV IN IOWA COULD TRIGGER THE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MI.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

I HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES/GRIDS TO KEEP THE THUNDERSTORMS GOING
ALONG ROUTE 10 FOR ANOTHER TWO HOURS SINCE THE CELLS KEEP
REFORMING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND THEN MOVE EAST. THE STORMS EVEN
SO WILL BEING TO DIMINISH SO BY 10 AM THIS SHOULD ALL BE DONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE DETERMINING
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND SEVERE WX POTENTIAL.

MAIN AXIS OF NOCTURNAL STORM ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL WI
THROUGH THE U.S.-10 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS ALL AT
THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE RIDING ALONG THE UPPER FLOW. THE AXIS OF PCPN IS STARTING TO
SHOW A TENDENCY TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS...HOWEVER THE ENTIRE
AXIS IS IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA.

WE EXPECT THIS RAIN TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA...AND THE WHOLE
AREA OF RAIN TO MOVE EAST AS THE WAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
EAST/NORTHEAST. THERE SHOULD THEN BE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE
THIS A.M..

WE WILL SEE UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST
SHIFT TO THE NE. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SFC RIDGE ACROSS SRN
CANADA. THIS PROCESS WILL HELP TO SHIFT THE FRONT BACK DOWN INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL SEE INSTABILITY BUILD
TODAY WITH SOME SUN AND TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S. LI/S ARE
FCST TO DROP DOWN ALMOST TO -10C. THE FRONT SINKING
SOUTH...COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY...AND ANY SHORT WAVE THAT
COULD MOVE THROUGH COULD TOUCH OFF A LINE OF STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE WHEN INITIATION TAKES PLACE. THE WINDOW WOULD LAST UNTIL
MID EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY WOULD WANE...AND WE SEE PCPN BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS WOULD
BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH THICK -10 TO -30C LAYER CAPE PROFILES. DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE DUE TO DRY MID LEVELS AND 45 KNOTS OR SO
AROUND 500 MB. BEST THREAT WOULD BE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWFA.

ONCE THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS LOST...THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD
LIKELY EVOLVE TO MORE OF A HYDRO THREAT. WOULD COULD SEE SOME
POTENTIAL TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
BEFORE THE FRONT WOULD SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THE
GOOD THING IS THE HEAVIER RAINFALL THUS FAR HAS BEEN OVER THE
NORTH. SOUTHERN AREAS HAVE SOME ROOM BEFORE RAINFALL WOULD BECOME
AN ISSUE.

WE WILL SEE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL END OVER THE AREA BY DAYBREAK FRI
MORNING AS THE WAVES AND ASSOCIATED LLJ MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN. THE
FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH...AND WE WILL SEE A DRY NE FLOW SET UP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

THE WEATHER WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT IMPLICATIONS IS THE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. HOWEVER THERE
IS A BLOCKING UPPER HIGH SOUTH OF GREENLAND THAT SEEMS TO WANT TO
RETROGRADE OVER TIME. THAT IN COMBINATION WITH THAT STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE ALEUTIANS...THAT I HAVE BEEN WRITING ABOUT FOR NEARLY A
WEEK...DIGS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL
FORCE THE ENTIRE PATTERN TO RETROGRADE. THAT BRINGS LONG WAVE
TROUGHING TO THE EASTERN CONUS AND UPPER RIDGING MOUNTAIN STATES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BEING NEAR THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WOULD BRING
AN OVERALL COOLING PATTERN HERE BUT IT ALSO WOULD BRING MORE RAIN TO
THE AREA.

THE END RESULT OF ALL THIS IS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN OUR AREA NOW
WILL DROP SOUTH AS THE UPPER JET ALSO DROPS SOUTH OVER TIME.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND LARGE CANADIAN HIGH WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEEKEND
FOR THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN AS A
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE (KICKED OUT BY THE STORM FROM ALASKA) CROSSES THE
CONUS TO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MONDAY...IT WILL PHASE WITH A DIGGING
SYSTEM FROM NORTHEASTERN CANADA. THAT IN TURN HELPS TO DIG THE
EASTERN TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NOW THE STAGE IS SET FOR A RAIN EVENT HERE IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.
THE WARM ADVECTION SURGE AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA WITH THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.
BY TUESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF SOUTHWEST LOWE MICHIGAN AS AN
UPPER LOW STARTS TO CLOSE OFF NORTH OF MINNESOTA. THAT WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED BUT COOLER WEATHER GOING HERE INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. PEAK ACTIVITY ACROSS SW LOWER MI SHOULD BE
FROM ABOUT 22Z THROUGH 03Z...HOWEVER STORMS COULD LINGER ALL
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES.

MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME SCATTERED
IFR LIKELY INTO LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING AS CEILINGS LOWER
IN LIGHT WINDS. HOW WIDESPREAD THE IFR BECOMES IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL BE BETTER DEFINED WITH FUTURE TAF
ISSUANCES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER
LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD CAUSE LOCALLY
HIGHER VALUES. THEY WILL POSE A RISK TO MARINERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

IT APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A GOOD SOAKING OF RAINFALL
AT SOME TIME BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY MORNING. PWATS ARE UP TO
AROUND 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN THIS MORNING IS UP NORTH. SOME LOCATIONS COULD
SEE A TOTAL OF AN INCH OF RAIN THIS MORNING BEFORE IT MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA.

THE NORTH WILL SEE SOME MORE RAIN TODAY/TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE BEST
THREAT OF RAINFALL LOOKS TO HAPPEN ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT
SINKS SOUTH. THIS MOVEMENT IN THE AXIS OF BEST RAINFALL COMBINED
WITH THE SOUTH SEEING LITTLE RAINFALL THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
SHOULD KEEP FROM ANY MAJOR ISSUES OCCURRING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH OR TWO WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MIZ037>040-043>046-
     050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...MJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1010 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-041415-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
1010 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE MAIN EXPECTED THREATS ARE HEAVY RAIN AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THIS COULD ESPECIALLY IMPACT AREA
CREEKS AND STREAMS WITH RAPID RISES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY. ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR MINOR
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ALL INSTANCES OF HEAVY
RAIN...FLOODING...HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

LMZ844>849-041415-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
1010 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BRING HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT AFTER STORMS CLEAR OUT...WITH VISIBILITIES UNDER ONE
MILE AT TIMES LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ALL INSTANCES OF HEAVY
RAIN...FLOODING...HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
127 PM EDT THU MAY 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 PM     HAIL             1 S CUSTER              43.94N 86.22W
05/03/2012  M0.75 INCH       MASON              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
137 PM EDT THU MAY 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 AM     FLASH FLOOD      S BRANCH                43.94N 86.04W
05/03/2012                   MASON              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER WAS REPORTED RUNNING DOWN BARNETT BLVD. THE ROAD
            WAS BEING WASHED OUT.

&&

WH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
156 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

MIZ044-031815-
NEWAYGO-
156 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 153 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEWAYGO COUNTY...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 30 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT THURSDAY
EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN.

&&

LAT...LON 4381 8556 4379 8556 4373 8604 4382 8604
TIME...MOT...LOC 1756Z 252DEG 37KT 4381 8592

OSTUNO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
217 PM EDT THU MAY 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0204 PM     HAIL             5 S BALDWIN             43.83N 85.85W
05/03/2012  M0.50 INCH       LAKE               MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
251 PM EDT THU MAY 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0249 PM     HAIL             SHELBY                  43.61N 86.36W
05/03/2012  E0.75 INCH       OCEANA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
256 PM EDT THU MAY 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             4 W SHELBY              43.61N 86.44W
05/03/2012  M1.00 INCH       OCEANA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MKALEMBK