Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
523 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 510 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012

MADE MINOR TWEEKS TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LINE
OF STORMS PROGRESSING EAST FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED. DURING THE
LATE EVENING THE HIGHER PRECIP. CHANCES SHIFT BACK WEST AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. STORM ACTIVITY
STILL LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ALSO UPDATED THE WIND FORECAST. AHEAD OF THE STORMS WINDS ARE FROM
THE EAST. ONCE THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH WINDS BECOME ERRATIC WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 OR 50 MPH. WINDS SLOWLY DECLINE BEHIND THE
STORMS...ALTHOUGH THE VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAKE PICKING A
DIRECTION TRICKY BUT WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012

NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS ALREADY MOVING INTO
NORTHERN CO...WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS
CWA. INITIAL IMPRESSIONS WERE THAT STABLE AIR BEHIND FIRST
EXITING SHORTWAVE WOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
UNTIL 00Z...HOWEVER HIGH BASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG EASTERN EXTENT OF
SURFACE TROUGH. AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN COLORADO MOVES
EAST THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LLJ DEVELOPS AROUND 00Z...AND WILL HELP
SUPPORT SHEER PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WIND/HAIL THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY AROUND 09Z AS SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST. NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ON SUNDAY AND COULD BRING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA...POSSIBLY A REPEAT OF TONIGHT
WITH HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. I KEPT COVERAGE LIMITED TO
ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH TIMING OF INITIATION
STILL FAVORED IN THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012

DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE DURING THIS PERIOD. A LARGE SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE CONUS WEATHER EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE WESTERN FRINGE
OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...BEST CHANCES BEING IN EASTERN COLORADO...IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 100-105 RANGE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 510 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY OVER THE TAF SITES SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE SITES BY 0Z.
AFTER THAT HAVE VCTS THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DID NOT INSERT A TEMPO GROUP FOR TS DURING THE EVENING SINCE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE TOO SPOTTY TO TIME IN TO EITHER SITE. WILL
MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING INCASE A TEMPO GROUP IS NEEDED. IF
STORMS DO MOVE OVER THE SITES WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 35KTS OR SO.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT BEGIN TO WANE
BRINGING STORM ACTIVITY TO AN END. SUNDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
MAY AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. WILL HOLD OFF
INSERTING ANY MENTION WITH THESE TAFS DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1015 AM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-011300-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1015 AM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012 /1115 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND FIRES DUE TO
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY THAN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 100 DEGREES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF WORKING
OUTDOORS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO STATE LINE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORM
THAT FORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JRM/DR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
708 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             13 N COLBY              39.58N 101.06W
06/30/2012  E0.50 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   PUBLIC

            PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL COVERING HWY 25. RELAYED BY
            EMERGENCY MANAGER.

&&

PMURRAY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
743 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 PM     TSTM WND GST     PARK                    39.11N 100.36W
06/30/2012  E70 MPH          GOVE               KS   PUBLIC

            FLAG POLE BEING BLOWN SIDEWAYS QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

PMURRAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
751 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 N PARK                39.23N 100.35W
06/30/2012  E60 MPH          SHERIDAN           KS   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH.

&&

PMURRAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
825 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2012

KSZ016-010300-
GRAHAM-
925 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GRAHAM COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 922 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BOGUE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING
AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE A VEHICLE ON A FLOODED ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9961 3913 9965 3937 9992 3945 9964
      3941 9959 3914 9960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 317DEG 20KT 3937 9975

THEDE