Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Goodland, KS

307 
WWUS53 KGLD 012359
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
559 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

COC017-020030-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0115.000000T0000Z-120702T0030Z/
CHEYENNE CO-
559 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
CHEYENNE COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM MDT...

AT 555 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF AROYA TO 14
MILES SOUTH OF AROYA...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WILD HORSE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 10317 3903 10317 3904 10316 3904 10283
      3861 10302 3861 10317 3861 10318 3866 10318
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 297DEG 11KT 3898 10306 3866 10320
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN
$$

LUNDQUIST

430 
WWUS53 KGLD 020018
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
618 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

COC017-020030-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0115.000000T0000Z-120702T0030Z/
CHEYENNE CO-
618 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
CHEYENNE COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM MDT...

AT 613 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES
NORTHWEST OF GALATEA...OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF AROYA...AND WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 10317 3872 10317 3877 10316 3871 10300
      3861 10304 3861 10318 3866 10318
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 321DEG 18KT 3861 10314
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN
$$

LUNDQUIST

734 
WWUS53 KGLD 020027
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
627 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

COC017-020037-
/O.EXP.KGLD.SV.W.0115.000000T0000Z-120702T0030Z/
CHEYENNE CO-
627 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 630 PM MDT/730 PM CDT/...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF 
THE WARNED AREA...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH 
ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3869 10317 3872 10317 3877 10316 3871 10300
      3861 10304 3861 10318 3866 10318
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 321DEG 18KT 3857 10310
$$

LUNDQUIST

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
522 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

UPDATE SENT TO REFLECT INCREASING POPS AND QPF ALONG A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST AROUND 20 MPH. DID THIS THROUGH 03Z
TONIGHT WITH EXPECTATION OF ACTIVITY DECREASING IN COVERAGE
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL US...WITH TROUGHS OVER THE PAC NW AND OVER NEW
ENGLAND. WESTERN KS REMAINS UNDER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING...WITH WEAK
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ALONG
NORTHERN END OF UPPER RIDGE.

STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS COLORADO AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AIDED
BY LIMITED LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP FURTHER
EAST TOWARDS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MEAN FLOW CARRYING THIS
ACTIVITY EASTWARD. COVERAGE AND EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS A QUESTION FOR OUR CWA WITH SUBSIDENCE CURRENTLY
IN PLACE. AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING MOVES EAST WEAK
ASCENT SHOULD SPREAD OVER OUR CWA. I BUMPED POPS UP TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN THE WEST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS
THIS EVOLVES. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WITH ACTIVITY COMING TO AN END THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD
BE SUPPORTIVE FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT
AROUND 00Z.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. I HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES...SO I KEPT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION LIMITED THERE. IM LESS CONFIDENT THE
FURTHER EAST IN OUR CWA...SO I KEPT EASTERN LOCATIONS DRY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 TO 103 ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AREAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL QUESTIONS HOW MANY DAYS THESE HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL OCCUR...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
NOW. MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH
WINDS LIKELY BELOW CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

MORE OF THE SAME IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO MIDDLE 100S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN
EASTERN COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND
THE RIDGE. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...JUST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

FOR KGLD VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE 01Z-02Z
TIMEFRAME WHEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD REACH THE
TERMINAL...SHOULD THEY MAKE IT THIS FAR. IF THEY DO VIS COULD DROP
INTO MVFR RANGE BRIEFLY. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
10-15 MPH INCREASING AFTER 17Z SUNDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS.

FOR KMCK VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS 10-15KTS THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20KTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DDT
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DDT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1042 AM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-021430-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1042 AM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012 /1142 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING CAUSED FIRES WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 100.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WITH
HIGHS AROUND 100 EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
506 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

COZ091-092-012320-
CHEYENNE COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-
506 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND KIT
CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 504 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BOYERO...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF AROYA...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.  LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS STORM MAY CAUSE SPOT FIRES.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3911 10317 3912 10316 3912 10301 3882 10301
      3882 10317
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 267DEG 14KT 3898 10322

LUNDQUIST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
525 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

COZ092-012345-
CHEYENNE COUNTY-
525 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 522 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR AROYA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3904 10317 3904 10299 3876 10299 3876 10317
      3882 10317
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 275DEG 8KT 3890 10317

LUNDQUIST