Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Hastings, NE

818 
WWUS53 KGID 150431
SVSGID

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1131 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

NEC019-061-099-137-150445-
/O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-120415T0445Z/
BUFFALO NE-FRANKLIN NE-KEARNEY NE-PHELPS NE-
1131 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN
PHELPS...KEARNEY...NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL BUFFALO
COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

AT 1129 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
KEARNEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  KEARNEY AND HEARTWELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 4085 9902 4051 9874 4028 9918 4035 9918
      4035 9923 4060 9941
TIME...MOT...LOC 0431Z 223DEG 48KT 4067 9907
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.75IN

$$

705 
WWUS53 KGID 150444
SVSGID

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1144 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

NEC019-061-099-137-150454-
/O.EXP.KGID.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-120415T0445Z/
BUFFALO NE-FRANKLIN NE-KEARNEY NE-PHELPS NE-
1144 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN PHELPS...KEARNEY...
NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL BUFFALO COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE
AT 1145 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
 HOWEVER SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A TORNADO 
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR 
NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...NORTHEASTERN HARLAN...SOUTHWESTERN 
KEARNEY...AND SOUTHEASTERN PHELPS COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

LAT...LON 4085 9902 4051 9874 4028 9918 4035 9918
      4035 9923 4060 9941
TIME...MOT...LOC 0444Z 223DEG 48KT 4079 9890

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
638 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

.AVIATION...00Z TAF. TOUGH AVIATION FORECAST THIS PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE EN-RODES INTO THE
KGRI AREA LATE THIS EVENING CAUSING MFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES. BUT COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED IN NATURE...AND STILL SOME
CHANCE THEY MISS KGRI ALL TOGETHER. EVENTUALLY...SOME LATE NIGHT
CLEAR WILL TAKE OVER AS ANY STORMS MOVE EAST...AND IFR CONDITIONS
WILL SETTLE. ON SUNDAY...WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND COLD FRONT FROM
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE VERY STRONG WINDS
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST...AND
INCREASING MID CLOUDS. MAY BE SHOWER IN THERE BUT TOO EARLY TO
REALLY PUT IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE OBVIOUS CONCERN IS THE
EVOLUTION OF SEVERE CONVECTION OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS.
IN SHORT...THE FIRST ROUND OF STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION IS IN THE
PROCESS OF EXITING FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ESSENTIALLY
BRINGING ROUND 1 TO A CLOSE. THESE STORMS RESULTED IN AT LEAST 3
UNCONFIRMED BRIEF TORNADOES NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STATE
LINE...ALONG WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES.
THE CONCERN NOW SHIFTS BACK TO THE FAR WESTERN-SOUTHWESTERN
CWA...AS CLEARING SKIES ARE RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING AREAS CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE DRYLINE FROM SOUTHWEST NEB DOWN ACROSS WESTERN KS. AS
A RESULT...WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THIS EVENT IS FAR FROM BEING
OVER.

PARAMETERS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
HIGH-END SEVERE...AS THE 110+KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CURRENTLY
MAKING ITS WAY INTO FAR WESTERN KS OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF AT LEAST 50KT...AND
WITH LOW LEVEL 0-1KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT. 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AS WELL...WITH 300-400+ M2/S2 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA...WHICH COULD ONLY INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. FOLLOWING CONVECTIVE REFLECTIVITY
PROGS FROM LATEST HRRR...ALONG WITH 12Z RUNS OF 4KM WRF-NMM...ALONG
WITH LATEST RUC FIELDS...SIGNIFICANT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE SURGING NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH LOW LEVEL CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG
PERSISTING WELL INTO THE EVENING. HRRR SUGGESTS A COMBINATION OF
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND QUASI LINEAR STORM MODES WILL CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE EVENING...WITH SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA LIKELY MOST UNDER THE GUN. ALTHOUGH HYDRO ISSUES SEEM TO BE
MINIMAL SO FAR...ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA ON TOP OF WHAT FELL EARLIER COULD LEAD TO
SOME ISSUES.

SO FAR...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR KS ZONES THROUGH 00Z IS NOT
PANNING OUT VERY WELL WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTERFERING...AND
ALTHOUGH NEITHER AN IMMEDIATE CANCELLATION OR AN EXTENSION IS NOT
PLANNED AT THIS TIME...WILL PROBABLY SEE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACTUALLY PICK UP OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO AROUND
987MB IN THE NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST NEB AREA. SPEAKING OF WIND...A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY NEED AN ADVISORY
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AS STRONG WINDS INITIALLY ARE FROM THE
SOUTH...BUT THEN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. INSERTED A STRONG WIND MENTION INTO THE GRIDS AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT WITH EVERYTHING ELSE GOING ON TODAY WILL
DEFER TO MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON THE NEXT WIND
HEADLINE...WHICH WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE MORE ROBUST THAN THE CURRENT
ONE.

AS FOR STORM CHANCES LATE TONIGHT...ONLY HAVE 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCES POST-06Z...AND ALTHOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE FREE OF SEVERE WEATHER BY THEN...COULD FORESEE A
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS HANGING ON IN NORTHERN ZONES LATE INTO
THE NIGHT. SHOULD BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SYNOPTIC DRY SLOT
SURGES IN...BUT RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE CWA
FROM WEST TO EAST WRAPPING AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE
COMBINATION OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE
THE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FEEL COLDER THAN IT
MAY SOUND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. OVERALL FEW
NOTABLE CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH FORECAST BASED ON
A GENERAL BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS.

STARTING OFF RIGHT AWAY SUNDAY EVENING...A WIND ADVISORY MAY
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST AREAS...BUT
LIKELY NOT BEYOND 03Z AS THE STRONG SURFACE LOW PULLS GRADUALLY
AWAY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...BUT DRY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HEADING INTO MONDAY...LEFT THE MORNING DRY BUT HAVE
20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE TRACKS OUT OF SOUTHERN SD INTO NORTHERN NEB. NEXT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES IN NORTHEAST COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE NEXT QUICK MOVING WAVE PASSES BY IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK...AND MAINTAINED 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM THURS INTO THURS NIGHT AS THE NEXT WAVE CROSSES THE REGION.
AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW. BEYOND THURSDAY
NIGHT...MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS THERE ARE
SUGGESTIONS OF AT LEAST WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
PLAINS.

TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...HAVE MOST DAYS IN THE
LOW-MID 70S FOR HIGHS...EXCEPT FOR COOLER UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ON
MONDAY. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...COULD EVENTUALLY NEED TO INSERT
SOME FROST WORDING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND/OR MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 30S...ALTHOUGH BREEZES MAY REMAIN JUST STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
801 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
151200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
801 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

TORNADO WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...AND
DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AROUND
30 MPH...BUT COULD MOVE AT SPEEDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE.

THE MAIN RISK THROUGH 2 AM IS ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING. WHILE NOT ALL AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE SEVERE
WEATHER...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES DOES EXTEND PAST SUNSET WHICH
WILL MAKE STORM SPOTTING MORE DIFFICULT WITH TIME. HAIL SIZES
COULD REACH BASEBALL SIZE...AND INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM WINDS
MAY REACH 70 MPH OR MORE.

HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES IN SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GENEVA NEBRASKA...
TO NELSON...TO OSBORNE KANSAS.

LATE TONIGHT...LOCALIZED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30
MPH WILL DEVELOP. THOSE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER 2
AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY...WITH DIRECTION INITIALLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND THEN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES. SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AT LEAST 45 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST 2 AM ACROSS VARIOUS
PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1048 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HAIL             1 W HEARTWELL           40.57N 98.81W
04/14/2012  E1.75 INCH       KEARNEY            NE   PUBLIC

&&

FAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1056 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 PM     HAIL             2 W MCCOOL JUNCTION     40.74N 97.63W
04/14/2012  E1.75 INCH       YORK               NE   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

FAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1057 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1052 PM     HAIL             FAIRMONT                40.64N 97.58W
04/14/2012  E0.75 INCH       FILLMORE           NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

FAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1102 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1101 PM     HAIL             5 E EDISON              40.28N 99.68W
04/14/2012  E1.75 INCH       FURNAS             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GUERRERO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1111 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1111 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CLAY CENTER             40.52N 98.05W
04/14/2012  M1.90 INCH       CLAY               NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TOTAL THUS FAR TODAY

&&

GUERRERO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1117 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1116 PM     HAIL             1 W ATLANTA             40.37N 99.49W
04/14/2012  E0.75 INCH       PHELPS             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

FAY