Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Hastings, NE

150 
WWUS53 KGID 192241
SVSGID

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
541 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

NEC143-185-192315-
/O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0139.000000T0000Z-120519T2315Z/
POLK NE-YORK NE-
541 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
YORK AND POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 538 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
STROMSBURG...OR 15 MILES NORTH OF YORK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. 
A SECOND STORM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 5 MILES NORTH OF SHELBY AND WAS 
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  STROMSBURG...OSCEOLA AND SHELBY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4091 9764 4108 9783 4116 9783 4131 9764
      4132 9760 4134 9759 4137 9751 4137 9746
      4132 9736 4124 9736
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 232DEG 22KT 4109 9763
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.50IN

$$

EWALD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
226 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN LIES WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

UPPER LEVEL PROFILER AND SATELLITE DATA NOT SHOWING ANY SURPRISES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST STARTING TO
PUSH OUT OF CO AND ONTO THE PLAINS...AND ACTIVITY IS ALREADY
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN NEB/WRN KS AND MOVING TOWARD THE
WRN EDGE OF THE CWA. AT THE SFC...MAIN FRONT MADE PRETTY GOOD
EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS MORNING...MAKING IT ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH
THE CWA...WHERE IT HAS SINCE SLOWED/STALLED OUT. WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPS HAVE KEPT THE AREA IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT CAPPED OFF
SO FAR...BUT THAT ISNT EXPECTED TO LAST TOO MUCH LONGER AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE...TEMPS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ALONG WITH
DEWPOINTS APPROACHING/AT 60 DEGREES HAS RESULTED IN INSTABILITY
VALUES NEAR/+ 2000 J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WEAKER
SHEAR...WITH LESS INSTABILITY BUT BETTER SHEAR SET UP BEHIND THE
FRONT.

THIS SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE ONGOING ELEVATED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST. SHORT TERM/HIRES
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE E/SE HALF OF THE CWA
BEING PRIMARILY IMPACTED BY ANY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...WHERE HAIL/WIND AND AN ISO TOR WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.
HAIL/WIND WOULD BE THE CONCERNS WITH THE ACTIVITY FURTHER WEST.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SHIFT OFF TO THE E/NE...AND SHIFT OUT
OF THE CWA NEAR/IF NOT BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

ONCE WE GET PAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW...DRY
FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING
UP IN THE UPPER LEVELS BEHIND THIS LATEST TROUGH AXIS AND AHEAD OF
WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES. ONCE THE SFC FRONT
PUSHES  OUT OF THE CWA...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE
WEST...AND IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY NORTHERLY...WITH
SPEEDS ARND 10 MPH...AND WITH COOLER AIR ACCOMPANYING THIS SFC
HIGH...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO 'ONLY' TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID
70S...OR NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BE A
STRONG INFLUENCE ON KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS DEVELOPING DURING THIS PERIOD.
TUESDAY MAY VERY WELL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH 850 MB BEING THE
WARMEST AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
ALSO...TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE QUITE WINDY WITH AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES QUITE AMPLIFIED BY WEDNESDAY.
MODELS  ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A LONGWAVE RIDGE TO THE
EAST. THE GFS IS MORE EARLY AND AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF AT
EJECTING PIECES OF ENERGY INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PASS EAST OF THE CWA BY SOMETIME WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA PREDICTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE JUST WEST OF THE
CWA. THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA SHOULD SHUNT MOISTURE RETURN
TO AT LEAST SOME EXTENT...CALLING INTO QUESTION THE CHANCES OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND FOR THAT MATTER...PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE
SHOULD EVENTUALLY MAKE A RETURN WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY HANGING
AROUND THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. DETERMINING SEVERE CHANCES
WILL BE DICEY...BUT STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET KICKS IN
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE
CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES FURTHER OUT THAN
WEDNESDAY. SHEAR NEAR THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE AMPLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR HERE.
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE COOLER
THAN THE REST IF THE BOUNDARY DRAPES INTO OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF. PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD LIES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PUSHING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES WILL BRING INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
TERMINAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AND HAVE
VC MENTION AS WELL AS A TEMPO GROUP MENTIONED. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL REMAIN NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF MVFR CIGS BEING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
231 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
201215-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
231 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE MID TO LATE
EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WINDY. WIND WILL BLOW FROM THE SOUTH AT
SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH PREDICTABILITY IS LOW...STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...DURING THE TIME PERIOD OF THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

ADO/HEINLEIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
510 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     HAIL             9 S AURORA              40.74N 98.00W
05/19/2012  M0.88 INCH       HAMILTON           NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME TO NICKEL HAIL WITH 40 MPH WINDS

&&

DOXEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
513 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     HAIL             1 S FAIRFIELD           40.42N 98.10W
05/19/2012  E1.00 INCH       CLAY               NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

ODER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
515 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     HAIL             5 E RED CLOUD           40.09N 98.43W
05/19/2012  E0.88 INCH       WEBSTER            NE   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

ODER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
516 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SE DEWEESE            40.31N 98.09W
05/19/2012  M68 MPH          NUCKOLLS           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUST MEASURED AT INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAYS 14 AND 4
            IN NORTHERN NUCKOLLS COUNTY.

&&

ODER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
519 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 PM     HAIL             DEWEESE                 40.35N 98.14W
05/19/2012  E1.75 INCH       CLAY               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER TO GOLF BALL HAIL ALMOST COVERING GROUND

&&

DOXEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
528 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 S EDGAR               40.31N 97.97W
05/19/2012                   NUCKOLLS           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PBEDA