Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
910 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
STARTING TO FINALLY SEE STORMS GAINING A LITTLE MORE MOMENTUM AND
COVERAGE ALONG INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND UNDER INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET. HAVE HAD
THREE LOW-END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR AND EXPECT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THEN BE MORE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS MAXIMIZED
NW-SE OVER NE MONTANA. 850 MB JET EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND HELP TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...AND IN A CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...EXPECT AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BEFORE MIDNIGHT
AND TRACK NORTHEAST. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NOISY NIGHT FOR THE
AREA...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED FORECAST EARLIER
THIS EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE AS NECESSARY. MOYER

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS CLOSED UPPER
LOW/STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PAC-NW...WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW INTO MONTANA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE DIVIDE BY AFTERNOON...THEN REACHES OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...MEETING UP WITH AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS...
ALONG WITH THE LATEST RAP SUGGEST STORM INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
FAR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE EAST. SO EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE MAINLY
AFTER 00Z. THE STRONGEST SURFACE BASED CAPE OF AROUND 2600 J/KG
REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. IN ADDITION...LIFTED INDEX
VALUES OF AROUND -7C ARE INDICATED IN THE SAME AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS VEER AND INCREASE WITH HEIGHT TO THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT...DEVELOPING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-50KTS. INVERTED
V-SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS
WITH ANY STORM. INSTABILITY DROPS OFF TOWARD THE NORTH. WITH OUR
AREA UNDER THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ELECTED WITH THE
COORDINATION OF SPC TO TO A SPECIAL SOUNDING AROUND 20Z. SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH SEVERE WORDING WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. MODELS
SUGGEST AROUND A HALF INCH OF MOISTURE...BUT 1 HOUR FF GUIDANCE
HAS ROOM FOR AROUND AN INCH OR MORE. AFTER MIDNIGHT GROWTH OF
STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO AN MCS AS THEY TREND NORTHEAST INTO
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...CONTINUING WITH THE HEAVY
RAIN...HAIL AND WINDS.

THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH THE CWA BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
BREAK IN THE ACTION AS COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER IN. THEN
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD-BRUSH POPS. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH 20MPH OVER FORT PECK LAKE
SATURDAY MORNING. SO WILL GO WITH AN ADVISORY. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER WILL WORK ITS WAY OVER THE CWA BY SUNDAY...DRAGGING BACK
SIDE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS. SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES STORM
SYSTEM FINALLY EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WITH SOMEWHAT CALMER
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AT LEAST INITIALLY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BECOMES EVEN WEAKER AND ALLOWS MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
SMALL SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA FOR QUITE A WHILE.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO OUR
REGION...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THIS LATER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE RIDGE OF THE CASCADE RANGE AND CUTS OFF AS A
LARGE AND CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...UPPER
LOW MOVES EITHER EAST (GFS) OR NORTHEAST (ECMWF) OUT OF THE AREA.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO PART OF MONDAY. WILL
KEEP GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD HAS MONTANA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL
BRING FREQUENT SHORTWAVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA WITH AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM INTENSIFY AND SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO WORSEN OCCASIONALLY AND
BRIEFLY TO LIFR IF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS HAPPEN TO PASS DIRECTLY
OVER A TAF SITE...WHICH COULD EASILY HAPPEN FROM 03Z THROUGH 12Z.
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A SHIFT IN THE WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISH BY MID
DAY. BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR FORT PECK
LAKE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
953 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012

MTZ016>027-059>062-091200-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
953 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF
SATURDAY. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS
UP TO 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY...SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WHICH WILL MAKE BOATING ON AREA LAKES ROUGH AND
HAZARDOUS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE IS IN EFFECT
FOR SATURDAY AND WILL POSSIBLY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MOYER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
929 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012

MTZ022-090415-
GARFIELD-
929 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

UNTIL 1015 PM MDT.

AT 926 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COHAGEN...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...JORDAN AND COHAGEN.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4686 10673 4686 10710 4739 10689 4746 10666
      4712 10613 4684 10660 4684 10672
TIME...MOT...LOC 0329Z 230DEG 36KT 4685 10691

GAH
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
940 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012

MTZ017-061-090445-
VALLEY-
940 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

UNTIL 1045 PM MDT.

AT 934 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF HINSDALE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
   OPHEIM...BAYLOR

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4872 10611 4842 10680 4860 10708 4900 10647
      4900 10645
TIME...MOT...LOC 0338Z 221DEG 22KT 4855 10681

PROTON
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1004 PM MDT FRI JUN 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0956 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 SE GLASGOW           48.09N 106.48W
06/08/2012  M72 MPH          VALLEY             MT   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MEASURED ON AN AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION AT THE VALLEY
            COUNTY SHERIFFS PROPERTY.

&&

TANJAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1015 PM MDT FRI JUN 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     HAIL             4 W FORT PECK           48.01N 106.54W
06/08/2012  M1.00 INCH       VALLEY             MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL WAS IN PILES AFTERWARD. MANY LIMBS BROKEN OFF
            TREEES. RECEIVED .75 INCHES OF RAIN.

&&

BB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1023 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012

MTZ017-023-061-090530-
MCCONE-VALLEY-
1023 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN VALLEY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...
  NORTHWESTERN MCCONE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

UNTIL 1130 PM MDT.

AT 1021 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DUCK CREEK REC AREA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...GLASGOW...DUCK CREEK
REC AREA...FORT PECK...NASHUA AND LUSTRE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4837 10580 4825 10581 4796 10643 4798 10643
      4798 10645 4796 10646 4796 10650 4795 10651
      4794 10649 4790 10657 4811 10679 4867 10615
TIME...MOT...LOC 0423Z 230DEG 36KT 4801 10658

GAH
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1030 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012

MTZ022-090500-
GARFIELD-
1030 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

UNTIL 1100 PM MDT.

AT 1025 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BRUSETT...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...BRUSETT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4736 10754 4766 10726 4754 10688 4724 10725
TIME...MOT...LOC 0430Z 220DEG 30KT 4736 10736

GAH
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW