Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
254 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...

GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS CLOSED UPPER
LOW/STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PAC-NW...WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW INTO MONTANA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE DIVIDE BY AFTERNOON...THEN REACHES OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...MEETING UP WITH AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS...
ALONG WITH THE LATEST RAP SUGGEST STORM INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
FAR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE EAST. SO EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE MAINLY
AFTER 00Z. THE STRONGEST SURFACE BASED CAPE OF AROUND 2600 J/KG
REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. IN ADDITION...LIFTED INDEX
VALUES OF AROUND -7C ARE INDICATED IN THE SAME AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS VEER AND INCREASE WITH HEIGHT TO THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT...DEVELOPING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-50KTS. INVERTED
V-SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS
WITH ANY STORM. INSTABILITY DROPS OFF TOWARD THE NORTH. WITH OUR
AREA UNDER THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ELECTED WITH THE
COORDINATION OF SPC TO TO A SPECIAL SOUNDING AROUND 20Z. SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH SEVERE WORDING WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
MODELS SUGGEST AROUND A HALF INCH OF MOISTURE...BUT 1 HOUR FF
GUIDANCE HAS ROOM FOR AROUND AN INCH OR MORE. AFTER MIDNIGHT
GROWTH OF STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO AN MCS AS THEY TREND NORTHEAST
INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...CONTINUING WITH THE
HEAVY RAIN...HAIL AND WINDS.

THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH THE CWA BY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
BREAK IN THE ACTION AS COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER IN. THEN
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD-BRUSH POPS. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH 20MPH OVER FORT PECK LAKE
SATURDAY MORNING. SO WILL GO WITH AN ADVISORY. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER WILL WORK ITS WAY OVER THE CWA BY SUNDAY...DRAGGING BACK
SIDE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS. SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES STORM
SYSTEM FINALLY EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WITH SOMEWHAT CALMER
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AT LEAST INITIALLY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BECOMES EVEN WEAKER AND ALLOWS MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
SMALL SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA FOR QUITE A WHILE.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO OUR
REGION...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THIS LATER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE RIDGE OF THE CASCADE RANGE AND CUTS OFF AS A
LARGE AND CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...UPPER
LOW MOVES EITHER EAST (GFS) OR NORTHEAST (ECMWF) OUT OF THE AREA.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO PART OF MONDAY. WILL
KEEP GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD HAS MONTANA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL
BRING FREQUENT SHORTWAVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA WITH AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME SUNSHINE TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO WORSEN OCCASIONALLY AND BRIEFLY TO LIFR
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM 03Z THROUGH 12Z. SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHIFT IN
THE WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR FORT PECK
LAKE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
314 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012

MTZ016>027-059>062-091000-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
314 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE WEST...WILL COMBINE WITH AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OF OVER 60 MPH.
ALSO EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY...SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WHICH WILL MAKE BOATING ON AREA LAKES ROUGH AND
HAZARDOUS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE IS IN EFFECT
FOR SATURDAY AND WILL POSSIBLY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
414 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012

MTZ059-082245-
PHILLIPS-
414 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

UNTIL 445 PM MDT.

AT 411 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF TURNER...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
  RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTY...

LAT...LON 4900 10801 4900 10800 4887 10824 4890 10827
      4892 10826 4892 10824 4898 10824 4900 10824
      4900 10823
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 229DEG 26KT 4901 10819

MICKELSON
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
542 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012

MTZ059-090045-
PHILLIPS-
542 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

UNTIL 645 PM MDT.

AT 537 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LORING...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
   LORING...
   PORT OF MORGAN...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4900 10738 4858 10801 4870 10821 4901 10789
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 223DEG 21KT 4871 10801

MOYER
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

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