Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
226 PM MDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
IS BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE TREASURE STATE.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT BETTER THAN HALF WAY
THROUGH MONTANA ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS CURRENTLY ATTEMPTING
TO FORM UP A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER PHILLIPS COUNTY. WITH CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 2500 J/KG...FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...AND THE
FRONTAL TRIGGER...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND BE INTO NORTH DAKOTA
BY AROUND 8 PM. THUS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 8 PM.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...AND WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THEY COULD BREAK 50 MPH. GUSTY POST
FRONTAL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND DAY BREAK...THUS THE
LAKE WIND EXPIRATION TIME OF 4 AM LOOKS GOOD. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 4 AM AS WELL.
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR INDEPENDENCE
DAY. WITH THAT SAID SKIES WILL BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE TUESDAYS SYSTEM. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A WARM AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS EVERYDAY. THEN OVER THE WEEKEND A NEGATIVE
LEANING RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTER-MOUNTAIN
REGION WHICH WILL SHIFT FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
BE A WARM TO HOT PATTERN WITH A DAILY POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. NO UPPER DISTURBANCE OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
APPARENT IN THE MODELS...SO NO SEVERE OUTBREAK WILL OCCUR. FEW
CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME MILD RIDGING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED THURSDAY
EVENING ALLOWS PERIODIC BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO PROPAGATE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH AN ATTENDANT CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS. AS
THESE FEATURES ARE SMALL AND POORLY ANALYZED...MODELS EXPECTEDLY
DISAGREE ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIP WITH THESE WAVES.
HOWEVER...MODELS DO AGREE REMARKABLY WELL ON THE EXISTENCE OF THE
RIDGE AND PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY.

RIDGE GAINS SOME STRENGTH LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LEADING TO A
FAIRLY WARM PERIOD. HOWEVER RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE MOISTURE
CAN COMBINE WITH ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES TO GIVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSHOWERS EACH DAY. LACK OF ANY STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED SUGGEST ACTIVITY
WILL BE NON SEVERE. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL ALSO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE.

HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL GIVE RELATIVELY WARM LOW
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MARTIN

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS CONTINUE TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS A STRONG FRONT AND
SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR-MASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...WITH STRONG...40 KTS OR HIGHER...GUSTY AND SHIFTING
WINDS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE. BY EVENING...STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A CONTINUOUS
LINE AS FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER.

TIMING OF VCTS IN THE TAFS FOLLOWS THE NAM FRONTAL LOCATION
TIMING. CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WOULD BRING THUNDERSHOWERS
INTO THE VICINITY OF THE KGGW AND KOLF TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO KSDY AND KGDV SEVERAL HOURS LATER. AS THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS OR SQUALL LINE MOVES EASTWARD...
CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT THE KGGW AND KOLF AREAS BY LATE EVENING.
SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR MTZ122-136-137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
156 PM MDT TUE JUL 3 2012

MTZ016>020-059>062-041100-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
156 PM MDT TUE JUL 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF...AND WITH THIS FRONT. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM MDT.

AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
WILL OCCUR. VERY STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4
AM WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ021>027-041100-
PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-
156 PM MDT TUE JUL 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF...AND WITH THIS FRONT. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM MDT.

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE REGION...VERY STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 4 AM WEDNESDAY.

HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 4 AM WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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