Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
327 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON
PUSHING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD
OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES TO THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE OF THE YEAR SO FAR ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS HAVE
DECREASED ACROSS THE REGION SO CANCELLED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
STILL LOOKING MARGINAL DUE TO THE STRONG INVERSION. FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LIFTED INDEXES AT LOW AS -10 ACROSS OUR EAST
WITH CAPES VALUES AS HIGH AS 5000 J/KG THIS EVENING. 0-6KM WIND
SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS AND PRECIP WATER AS HIGH AS 1.3
INCHES. SPC HAS INCLUDED ALL OF EASTERN MONTANA IN THE SLIGHT RISK
ALONG WITH PUTTING SOUTHEAST MONTANA UNDER A MESOSCALE DISCUSSION.
WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROS THE CWA GO SEVERE
BUT HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR NOW.

TUESDAY...THE LOWER LEVEL HUMID AIR GETS SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA AND
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES ALOFT FROM THE SW WITH A COLD FRONT.
THIS REDUCES THE AMOUNT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS VERY QUICKLY BY THE
TIME THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP ACROSS FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 137 AND 122 AND THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. THINGS HAVE BEEN PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE
SOUTEHRN PORTIONS OF THESE TWO FIRE WEATHER ZONES. DECIDED TO GO
WITH A WATCH TO LET THE NIGHT SHIFT HAVE ONE MORE LOOK AT THINGS.
MODEL TEMPERTURES WERE OVER DONE WITH TODAY FORECAST AND TOMORROW
WE MIGHT SEE THE SAME ISSUES.

THIS FRONT IS PART OF THE CLOSED LOW OFF PACIFIC NW COAST THAT
TIGHTENS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT KICKS NE INTO SK...MAIN UPPER
SUPPORT TO OUR N. IT WILL BRING WINDY AND COOLER WEATHER TUE NIGHT
AND WED. MODELS SHOWING UP TO 50 KT WIND AT 850 MB AT TIME OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BEHIND IT WHICH SHOULD MIX TO SURFACE IN
STRONG COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. THUS EVEN AT NIGHT...VERY WINDY. SO
WILL LIKELY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY STARTING TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DAY. RSMITH

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA MIDWEEK WILL BRIEFLY
PUSH DOWN THE RIDGE...RESULTING IN COOLER WEATHER FOR NORTHEAST
MONTANA THURSDAY. RIDGE THEN REBOUNDS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
PACIFIC TROF DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON THE RISE. TROF MOVES ONSHORE LATE IN
THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD PUSH MOISTURE AND ENERGY INTO THE STATE
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND IMPACTS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. EBERT

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS A UPPER LOW EXITS INTO HUDSON BAY AND
UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHERN CONUS PRAIRIES AND THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS
WILL KEEP IT DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY THROUGH DAY 8 MONDAY...THE MODELS ARE STILL DISAGREEING ON
THE METEOROLOGICAL FEATURES OVER NORTH AMERICA. WILL PLACE VERY
LOW POPS AND WARM TEMPERATURES FOR NOW.            PROTON

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THE HIGHEST THROUGH 00Z...THEN
FALL OFF TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

A THREAT...HOWEVER SMALL...REMAINS FOR EXTREMELY ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS... HAIL... AND DOWNPOURS
WHICH WILL BRIEFLY CREATE IFR CONDITIONS.        PROTON/RAE

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ122-137.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
251 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012

MTZ016-017-021>027-060-261100-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-
251 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 137 AND
122 FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ018>020-059-061-062-261100-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-
NORTHERN VALLEY-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
251 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
158 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 AM     TSTM WND GST     13 NW BROCKTON          48.31N 105.08W
06/24/2012  E60 MPH          ROOSEVELT          MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL HAIL ALSO REPORTED ALONG WITH 1.55 INCHES OF
            RAINFALL

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
216 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1127 AM     TSTM WND DMG     10 SSW FORT KIPP        48.01N 104.81W
06/24/2012                   RICHLAND           MT   UTILITY COMPANY

            6 UTILITY POLES DOWN

1157 AM     TSTM WND DMG     12 SSE CULBERTSON       47.97N 104.46W
06/24/2012                   RICHLAND           MT   UTILITY COMPANY

            5 UTILITY POLES DOWN

&&

JB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
526 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012

MTZ021-260030-
PETROLEUM-
526 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN PETROLEUM COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

UNTIL 630 PM MDT.

AT 525 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF FLATWILLOW...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
   WINNETT...

LAT...LON 4698 10860 4733 10801 4692 10792 4692 10794
      4688 10794 4687 10791 4683 10790 4675 10863
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 230DEG 25KT 4687 10850

RSMITH
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

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